Major League Baseball

MLB's most overlooked contenders: Six teams that could steal division titles in 2024

Published Mar. 18, 2024 2:00 p.m. ET

This offseason, the Dodgers committed more than $1 billion to free agents, the Orioles acquired Corbin Burnes to anchor their rotation, and the Astros built a juggernaut at the back end of the bullpen by adding Josh Hader. In doing so, each of these clubs increased their already high expectations.

Other contenders, however, didn't make quite the same splashy moves this winter and are flying relatively under the radar entering the 2024 season.

So, which teams projected to finish second or worse might be getting overlooked?

Here is one club from each division that deserves more attention.

AL West: Seattle Mariners

In a division that includes a Rangers team that just won the World Series and an Astros club that has won the division six of the past seven years — and now has Bryan Abreu, Ryan Pressly and Josh Hader for the late innings — it feels like the Mariners, who have the best rotation in the division, might not be drawing enough eyeballs. While it was disappointing not to see them spend more this offseason, that didn't stop president of baseball operations Jerry DiPoto from working with what he was given.

In addition to adding Mitch Garver, a steady force in the middle of the World Series champion Rangers' lineup, the Mariners also acquired Jorge Polanco, Mitch Haniger and Luke Raley among a bevy of trades this winter. Polanco and Garver fix huge gaps in the Seattle lineup. The Mariners ranked in the bottom four in OPS at second base each of the past four years, while their designated hitters combined for a sub-.700 OPS each of the past two years.

Do the moves make up for the departures of the powerful but strikeout prone Teoscar Hernández and Eugenio Suárez? That's up for debate. But the way this team can pitch, it might not matter. There's a strong argument to be made that the Mariners have the top rotation not just in the division but the whole sport.

Opponents will never get a breather. Behind 31-year-old Luis Castillo, who finished fifth in Cy Young Award voting last year, is a bevy of talented arms in George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo who are entering their age-27 season or younger and have already demonstrated an ability to miss bats at the big-league level. In addition, a healthy year for closer Andres Muñoz could have him challenging among the top players at his position in the sport.

Seattle was right in the mix for the division crown down the stretch, falling two games short of the Rangers and Astros. After knocking at the door the past three years, it wouldn't be shocking to see Julio Rodríguez lead them to their first division crown since 2001.

AL Central: Cleveland Guardians

Who had the Royals and Tigers as the two biggest spenders in the AL Central this offseason? That should make the division somewhat more competitive this year, though it doesn't change the Twins from being the favorites. The Guardians, meanwhile, have been given a 22.8% chance by PECOTA and an 18.9% chance by FanGraphs to win the division.

Coming off a year with the fourth-lowest OPS and second-lowest slugging percentage in MLB, the Guardians really could've used more help in the lineup this offseason to envision anything close to a league-average offense in 2024. Instead, their most expensive add was light-hitting backup catcher Austin Hedges. The Rockies were the only team that spent less than them on free agents this winter.

Still, even marginal offensive improvements could be enough to challenge for the division crown, given the pitching factory in Cleveland and the Twins' similarly quiet offseason. While the Guardians won't be a team that mashes, their expected stats last year at least suggest they were among the unluckier offenses in baseball. They have the best third baseman in baseball in José Ramírez. In addition, prospect Kyle Manzardo could provide a boost and the Naylor brothers getting more playing time could help the slugging numbers, if even marginally.

But their success is still tied directly to their pitching.

The Guardians had the ninth-best ERA in baseball last year despite regressions from top starter Shane Bieber and Emmanuel Clase, one of the most dynamic young closers in the sport. If they can find their usual stuff, if youngsters Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen and Gavin Williams take another step forward, or if Triston McKenzie can stay healthy, it's not hard to envision this pitching staff taking a giant leap forward in 2024. That could be enough to compete with the Twins and hold off the upstart Tigers and Royals.

AL East: Tampa Bay Rays

With all the attention on the young core in Baltimore and Juan Soto in pinstripes, it might be easy to forget the Rays have finished first or second in the division in four of the past five seasons. While their recent playoff performances have left much to be desired, you can all but guarantee they will find a way to be in the mix late in the year.

There are, however, a few more red flags than usual on the pitching staff. Shane McClanahan is unlikely to pitch this year, Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen won't be available until sometime this summer at the earliest, Taj Bradley will start the year on the injured list, and Tyler Glasnow is now on the Dodgers. Still, the Rays tend to find a way. Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale, Zack Littell and Ryan Pepiot should help keep things afloat early, Shane Baz could return from injury soon, and Colin Poche, Jason Adam and Pete Fairbanks provide stability in the late innings.

What separated this team last year from previous iterations was its offense. It was one of the best in baseball, and led by Yandy Díaz and Randy Arozarena, most of the same cast returns. Wander Franco's absence obviously hurts, but Jonathan Aranda and top prospects Junior Caminero and Curtis Mead raise the ceiling. Both FanGraphs and PECOTA project the Yankees to win the division, but given all the injuries New York has already endured, don't be surprised if the Rays — who've won at least 99 games two of the past three years — are right there at the end.

NL West: Arizona Diamondbacks

Hey, remember the D-backs? You know, the team that won the NL pennant? Given all the happenings in the NL West this offseason, it seems like they're somehow flying under the radar yet again.

Of course, the Dodgers will rightfully be favorites again after adding Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Glasnow to a group that already won 100 games last year. The Giants should be better after adding Matt Chapman, Jorge Soler and Jung Hoo Lee, and Dylan Cease is now leading the rotation of a Padres team that was much more talented than its 82-80 record from 2023 indicated. But despite all that, both FanGraphs and PECOTA have the D-backs finishing second in the division.

They were meticulous and thoughtful with their offseason additions. The rotation needed help beyond mainstays Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, so they added Eduardo Rodríguez. They had the fourth-lowest OPS out of the third base spot last year, so they added Suarez. The offense needed more pop at designated hitter, so they brought in Joc Pederson. All of the moves made sense.

Reigning NL Rookie of the Year Corbin Carroll is only 23 and breakout catcher Gabriel Moreno is only 24, and both could also take another sizable leap forward in 2024. Geraldo Perdomo was an All-Star last year, and top prospect Jordan Lawlar is waiting in the wings, ready to help at some point this year. While the bullpen still has questions, the addition of Paul Sewald last year added some needed stability to the ninth inning.

The youthful club demonstrated last year that they're ready to be taken seriously, and there are reasons to believe they'll be even better in 2024.

NL Central: Cincinnati Reds

The Brewers won the division handily last year, most projections have the Cardinals bouncing back from 2023's disaster to win the division this year, and the Cubs' lineup should make Chicago competitive again, so maybe it shouldn't be a huge shock that the Reds are projected to finish fourth by PECOTA and FanGraphs.

Still, projections don't always love the uncertainty that can come from a young, largely unproven club (see: Orioles), and you won't find a deeper collection of young talent in the National League than the Cincinnati Reds. There's a strong argument to be made that they have the highest upside rotation in the division, and it wouldn't be surprising to see their lineup outhit expectations if their plethora of young players led by the enthralling Elly De La Cruz take another leap forward.

The wrist injury to TJ Friedl is a tough blow to start the year, but Matt McLain, Spencer Steer and De La Cruz are all coming off standout seasons that saw them finish in the top 10 in Rookie of the Year voting. Frankie Montas and Nick Martinez add some experienced veterans to a rotation filled with talented young arms. In a division that should be up for grabs again, the growth of the Reds' youth will determine if they're ready to compete for their first division title since 2012.

NL East: Philadelphia Phillies

Let's start with this: The Braves are exceptional and will be the deserved East favorites entering 2024. Projections don't give any other team in this division much of a chance, and injuries to the Marlins' and Mets' rotations further diminish their odds.

But if any team can push the Braves, it's the Phillies.

Given all they've accomplished the past two years, anything short of a World Series championship will feel like a letdown. And yet, after an offseason focused on retention over flashy free-agent deals, it feels like they still might not be getting the attention they deserve.

For a team that went to the World Series two years ago and came a game away from returning last year, there wasn't a ton that needed to be done. All the pieces are there for the Phillies to win now, and even without any major roster changes, there are reasons to believe things will be better than last year. They won 90 games despite a first half in which Trea Turner tallied a .687 OPS and Bryce Harper hit three home runs. Turner looked like his usual self again after the break, while Harper eventually found his power stroke following a speedy return from Tommy John surgery.

This year, their outfield defense should be considerably better with Johan Rojas getting more time and Kyle Schwarber moving permanently to designated hitter. Assuming Aaron Nola bounces back from last year's regression — which still ended in another 200-strikeout season — the rotation could be among the most formidable in the sport, and top prospect Mick Abel could be ready to provide assistance at some point this year.

It's not out of the realm of possibility that two teams in this division win 100 games.

Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.