National Football League

Giants-Commanders rematch as close to must-win as it gets

Updated Dec. 14, 2022 3:42 p.m. ET

There's no point in mincing words this late in the season, not when one game is so big and so much is obviously at stake.

"We've got to win this f---ing game," said Giants defensive end Jihad Ward. "It's a must-win."

Not quite, but it's pretty close to a must-win for both the Giants and Commanders when they square off at FedEx Field in Landover, Maryland, on Sunday night. The two teams, who tied 20-20 at the Meadowlands two weeks ago, are tied with 7-5-1 records and clinging to the final two NFC wild-card spots. The winner gets what is effectively a two-game advantage — one in the standings, plus the season tie-breaker — with three games to go.

So the winner is almost a lock to get in, while the loser will end up in a three-team scramble down the stretch with the Seattle Seahawks (7-6) and the Detroit Lions (6-7) for the final NFC spot.

It's a huge opportunity for both NFC East teams. It just feels a lot different for each one of them. For the Commanders, this is a shot they've been trying to earn since their 1-4 start. They've been rolling toward this chance behind quarterback Taylor Heinicke, who has gone 5-1-1 in his seven starts.

"We're just talking about the significance of it to the guys, just how important it is, the opportunity that they've created for themselves," Commanders coach Ron Rivera said. "This is an opportunity."

The Giants understand that too. As quarterback Daniel Jones said, "Everything we want to achieve is still out in front of us." Still, it has to be a bit of a letdown for them. They were 6-1 on the season before they went into this 1-4-1 nosedive. They haven't won in a month (0-3-1) and have completely blown the playoff cushion they once had.

Making their situation seem even more dire, the Giants are coming off a humiliating 48-22 blowout loss at home to the Philadelphia Eagles. But as running back Saquon Barkley said, "You can find beauty in anything." And the beauty the Giants see is in a mid-December opportunity that most of them have never had.

"Coach [Brian] Daboll always says, ‘What we do in December is what people remember,'" said left tackle Andrew Thomas.

"It's who you are in those moments," Barkley said. "And what better opportunity after a game getting embarrassed on TV in front of everyone, and everyone outside of us is [saying], ‘The sky is falling, the sky's falling'?"

Here are four burning questions that might determine on which team the sky falls:

Which team has the better rushing attack? This really is the key to the game. Both teams need to run the ball, but their rushing attacks seem to be going in opposite directions.

The Giants can't really move the ball at all if they don't move it on the ground. They still have the sixth-best rushing attack in the league, averaging 147.6 yards per game. But they've gained an average of only 109 yards over the past four games, in which Barkley has totaled just 152 yards.

The Commanders, meanwhile, are rushing for 146.6 yards per game during their 5-1-1 stretch, powered by rookie running back Brian Robinson, who has 563 yards in nine games since returning to the lineup. He's running with a power the Giants just don't have right now.

Can Taylor Heinicke avoid the big, game-altering mistake? For the most part, he has, which is amazing considering how many high-risk passes he throws that sail high over his receivers. So far, the only time he has cost his team a game was with his fourth-quarter interception in a 20-17 loss to the Vikings back on Nov. 6.

Despite his high-risk style — which his teammates love, by the way — Heinicke has thrown just one interception the last three weeks and only five in his seven starts. Yes, he lives on the edge and the Giants' blitzing defense could always force a bad throw. Then again, the Giants will probably be without their best cornerback, Adoree' Jackson, due to a knee injury. Also, New York has picked off only four passes all year.

Taylor Heinicke on earning the starting QB position

After the Commanders beat the Texans in Week 11, Taylor Heinicke talked with FOX Sports' Jen Hale about earning the team's starting QB position. "I've been dreaming about this my whole life," he said.

Is there anyone who can catch passes from Daniel Jones? The easy and obvious answer is "No." The Giants' receiving corps is terrible. But they haven't shied away from at least trying for big plays down the field. The problem is their one, semi-reliable, big-play receiver — Darius Slayton — is among the league leaders in drops and isn't great at positioning his body for down-field catches either.

They will try to test the Commanders' improving secondary. They might even hit a big play or two. But for the most part, their passing offense is low-octane and unreliable. It's why they live and die with the run.

Which offensive line will hold up under pressure? Nobody blitzes more than Wink Martindale's defense, and the Giants did sack Heinicke five times two weeks ago. Those were the first times he had been sacked in three games, though, which shows how effective the Commanders line has been and how good Heinicke is at operating outside of the pocket. It's worth noting he still threw for 275 yards and two touchdowns against the Giants.

If you're betting on an offensive line to collapse, though, try the other side — Jones has taken a beating this season, a ridiculous 41 sacks. The Commanders defensive line is fierce, and Washington likely will get defensive end Chase Young back in some capacity this week after his long ACL rehab. That could mean big problems for the Giants — both in pass protection and opening holes for the run game, too.

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Ralph Vacchiano is the NFC East reporter for FOX Sports, covering the Washington Commanders, Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants. He spent the previous six years covering the Giants and Jets for SNY TV in New York, and before that, 16 years covering the Giants and the NFL for the New York Daily News. Follow him Twitter at @RalphVacchiano.