National Football League

Vikings-Packers preview: Playoff implications for both NFC North rivals

Published Dec. 28, 2022 8:43 p.m. ET

The Vikings are comfortably in the playoffs and playing for seeding to close out their season, a luxury not afforded to their opponents and division rivals, the Green Bay Packers. Once 4-8 with most declaring their season lost, the Packers won their last three games. They must win out the rest of the season to give themselves a chance at the postseason.

Their playoff chances sit at 29% according to the New York Times simulator. With a win on Sunday (3:25 CT on FOX and the FOX Sports app), they go up to 51%. With a loss, down to 2%. As far as the Packers are concerned, they're already playing playoff football.

The good news for Green Bay is that they should.

That recent strong play has led Vegas to make the 12-3 Vikings 3-point underdogs headed up to Lambeau Field. But seeding matters for Minnesota. They still have an off chance at the No. 1 seed, and therefore a first-round bye, if they win both their last games and the Philadelphia Eagles lose both their remaining contests. Philly has New Orleans at home this coming weekend, who still aren't mathematically eliminated considering what a cluster the NFC South is this season. The Eagles will likely be without quarterback Jalen Hurts again. Then they get the New York Giants to finish their season, a team that could also be playing to get into the postseason.

The point is, Minnesota has things to play for and winning out would be in their best interest. The Vikings sit in the second seed and if that holds, they would currently end up with the Washington Commanders as an opponent. If they fall to the third seed, they'd face the No. 6 team, which is currently the New York Giants — a team they needed a 61-yard last-second field goal to get past just last weekend.

News surfaced on Wednesday that Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers suffered a knee injury during Sunday's win in Miami. When asked if that puts his status for this Sunday's game in doubt, Rodgers said it would not. He's already played through a broken thumb and rib injury this season; what's one more?

He sat out Wednesday's practice but called it a ‘veteran rest day' rather than injury rest. Green Bay could also get left tackle David Bakhtiari back into the lineup after he underwent an emergency appendectomy on December 2. Running back Aaron Jones practiced Wednesday, as did right tackle Yosh Nijman and guard Elgton Jenkins, albeit in a limited capacity. Wide receiver Christian Watson didn't practice, as expected, as the breakout rookie deals with a hip injury that knocked him out of Sunday's game against the Dolphins.

The offensive line is getting healthier in time to face a Minnesota defense that has three sacks in each of its last two games. The last time these two teams faced off, in Week 1, Vikings pass rushers got to Rodgers four times — but that was with a much more rudimentary version of the Packers offensive line.

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Minnesota's offensive line could still be lacking, with center Garrett Bradbury re-aggravating a back injury in a car accident just as he was trending to return. Cousins has been sacked 11 times in the last two games. That being said, he's still managed to get the ball out to one Justin Jefferson, who is on an unprecedented tear and leads the league in receiving yards. He's put up triple digits in his last three games and set a franchise record with 223 receiving yards the last time he played a division opponent in Week 14 against Detroit. He'll be going against a Green Bay defense that has produced key takeaways, but struggled in other respects.

Matchup to watch: Justin Jefferson vs. Packers corners

Jaire Alexander has been assigned receivers before, shadowing opponents' No. 1 receivers as Green Bay's No. 1 cornerback. But Jefferson is nearly unstoppable and it's been Rasul Douglas who has come up with more interceptions as of late. Douglas came up with the game-clinching pick on Tua Tagovailoa in Miami last weekend and has come up with two interceptions in his last two games, four on the season so far.

Key stat: The Vikings' +5 point differential is the lowest for an NFL team 12-3 or better since the merger. It's 44 points lower than the 2016 Raiders, who started 12-3 with a +49 differential.

Prediction: Green Bay has only scored more than 30 points once this season averages 20.9 points per game, their lowest since 2017. The problem for Minnesota is, the Packers are hitting their stride. They should have both running backs healthy and at least Romeo Doubs, Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb as receivers available. Plus, Rodgers' sheer will to get into the postseason is a powerful force, even if it means throwing 31-yard bombs to 38-year-old Marcedes Lewis. I have a sneaking suspicion the Packers end up in this year's dance.

Packers 29, Vikings 27

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Carmen Vitali covers the NFC North for FOX Sports. Carmen had previous stops with The Draft Network and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. She spent six seasons with the Bucs, including 2020, which added the title of Super Bowl Champion (and boat-parade participant) to her résumé. You can follow Carmen on Twitter at @CarmieV.