College Basketball

Purdue vs. N.C. State March Madness Final Four: Prediction, odds, picks

Published Apr. 5, 2024 5:09 p.m. ET

The Purdue Boilermakers (33-4) and NC State Wolfpack (26-14) will play on Saturday for a spot in the NCAA Tournament national championship game. This Final Four showdown begins at 6:09 PM ET at State Farm Stadium (airing on TBS).

The Boilermakers enter their game against the Wolfpack as a 9-point favorite. The game features an over/under of 146.

Here's everything you need to know about the matchup between the Purdue and NC State — the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and an expert pick from our wagering expert, Chris Fallica.

Keep scrolling to get the download ahead of betting on the Purdue-NC State contest, as well as a pick from FOX Sports wagering expert Chris "The Bear" Fallica.

Purdue vs. NC State Game Information & Odds

When: Saturday, April 6, 2024 at 6:09 PM ET
Where: State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona
How to Watch on TV: TBS
Live boxscore on FOX Sports

Boilermakers vs Wolfpack Betting Information
Favorite	Spread	Favorite Spread Odds	Underdog Spread Odds	Total	Over Total Odds	Under Total Odds	Favorite Moneyline	Underdog Moneyline
Boilermakers	-9	-110	-110	146	-110	-110	-440	+340

Purdue vs. NC State Prediction

Pick ATS: Purdue (-9)
Pick OU: Over (146)
Prediction: Purdue 81, NC State 70

Learn more about the Purdue Boilermakers vs. the NC State Wolfpack game on FOX Sports!

Pick via FOX Sports Wagering Expert Chris "The Bear" Fallica

"Bear Bets" are real wagers that Chris "The Bear" Fallica is actually making.

With so much talk of Zach Edey on the offensive end, there isn’t enough talk about the job Purdue has done on the defensive end.

They shut Tennessee down late to punch their ticket to the Final Four, holding the Vols to 66 points.

They held a Gonzaga team that scored at will on Kansas, to 68.

It’s not as if NC State is a team that wants to push tempo anyway, so we need this game to get into the mid 70s for both teams to go over.

Yes, Purdue will likely have a parade to the FT line and maybe the N.C. State opponent 3-point shooting voodoo doll will finally see its spell wear off — Wolfpack opponents shot 23% from three-point range in the tourney spot far. But this total feels a bit high.

PICK: Under 146.5 points scored by both teams combined

Purdue vs. NC State Betting Insights

Betting Line Implied Predictions

Based on the spread and over/under, the implied score for the game is Boilermakers 78, Wolfpack 68.
The Boilermakers have an 81.5% chance to collect the win in this matchup per the moneyline's implied probability.
The Wolfpack sit with a 22.7% implied probability to come out on top.

Key Spread Facts

Purdue has put together a 17-14-2 record against the spread this season.
NC State has put together a 17-19-2 record against the spread this year.
Purdue has an ATS record of 9-9-1 when playing as at least 9-point favorites this season.
NC State has covered the spread three times this year (3-0 ATS) when playing as at least 9-point underdogs.

Key Total Facts

The Boilermakers games have had more than 146 points scored on 22 occasions this year.
So far this year, 23 Wolfpack games have featured over 146 points scored.
The Boilermakers and Wolfpack average 159.8 points per game combined, which is 13.8 more than the over/under for this matchup.

Key Moneyline Facts

Purdue is 23-4 in games when it was favored on the moneyline (winning 85.2%).
NC State has been underdogs in 18 games this season and won nine (50%) of those contests.
Purdue has won all 15 games it played as a moneyline favorite with odds of -440 or shorter.
NC State has a record of 2-1 when it is set as the underdog by +340 or more by sportsbooks this season.

Score Chip

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Purdue vs. NC State: 2023-24 Stats Comparison

	Purdue	NC State
Points Scored Per Game (Rank)	83.5 (10)	76.3 (98)
Points Allowed (Rank)	69.4 (97)	72 (182)
Rebounds (Rank)	11 (27)	9 (140)
3pt Made (Rank)	8.3 (87)	7 (225)
Assists (Rank)	18.9 (2)	13.1 (172)
Turnovers (Rank)	10.8 (133)	9.2 (22)

Purdue 2023-24 Key Players

Boilermakers Leaders
Name	GP	PTS	REB	ASST	STL	BLK	3PM
Zach Edey	37	25	12.2	2	0.3	2.2	0
Braden Smith	37	12.2	5.8	7.5	1.5	0.1	1.5
Lance Jones	37	11.8	2.7	2	1.3	0.2	2.1
Fletcher Loyer	37	10.6	2.1	2	0.8	0	1.6
Mason Gillis	37	6.6	3.9	1.8	0.2	0	1.5

NC State 2023-24 Key Players

Wolfpack Leaders
Name	GP	PTS	REB	ASST	STL	BLK	3PM
DJ Horne	39	16.8	3.4	2.2	1.3	0.1	2.6
DJ Burns Jr.	2	14	5.5	3	1	0.5	0
D.J. Burns	38	13	4	2.8	0.4	0.6	0
Casey Morsell	40	11.4	2.7	1.7	1.1	0.5	0.9
Jayden Taylor	40	11.2	3.6	1.4	1.2	0.5	1.6

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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