National Football League

2023 Atlanta Falcons Over/Under win total odds, predictions, picks

Updated Aug. 29, 2023 6:23 p.m. ET

Co-Host of THE HERD and FOX Sports Betting Analyst

With the NFL season set to begin, FOX Sports gambling experts and NFL writers are looking at the Over/Under for every team in the league. Check back daily to see predictions on where your team will finish the regular season!

September's presence, mere days away, and the air turning crisp can only mean one thing … NFL football is back, baby!

Now that sportsbooks have dropped Over/Under win totals for every team in the league, it's time to dive into the fun and look at the numbers from a betting perspective.

Can the Atlanta Falcons eclipse their win total of 8.5?

Here is how our FOX Sports talent sees the Falcons' season playing out.

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Jason McIntyre: Falcons Over 8.5 wins

It’s not about quarterback Desmond Ridder; it’s about the schedule. The toughest QBs the Falcons face this season are Trevor Lawrence (neutral site), Kirk Cousins (at home), Derek Carr (at home) and Aaron Rodgers (in NY). The Falcons face a staggering six games against QBs who are first-time starters. If Ridder is a game manager and doesn’t turn the ball over, this 7-win team from last year could pop with 10 or 11 wins based on the schedule alone.

Pick via FOX Sports NFC South Reporter Greg Auman: Falcons Under 8.5 wins

Can you build a winning team around a dominating run game? As the NFL devalues running backs, the Falcons are banking on rookie Bijan Robinson and a run-first offense. The bigger wild card is a revamped defense with at least five new starters under new coordinator Ryan Nielsen. They’re also putting a lot of trust in quarterback Desmond Ridder exceeding modest expectations.

FOX Sports Research Nuggets

5-7-1 (Over-Under-Push) since 2010
In the last 10 seasons, have only won nine or more games twice (in 2017, won 10 games, and in 2016, won 11 games)

2022 In Review

Overall: 7-10, fourth in NFC South
Home record: 6-3
Road record: 1-7
Divisional record: 2-4
Point differential: -21 (20th in NFL)
Points per game: 21.5 (T-15th in NFL)
Yards per Game: 318.6 (24th in NFL)
Opponent points per game: 22.7 (23rd in NFL)
Opponent yards per game: 362.1 (27th)

Will Lions or Packers snag the NFC North title?

Nick Wright and Chris Broussard reveal their NFC North predictions, including why the Detroit Lions will battle the Green Bay Packers for the reigns.

What to Know

Head Coach: Arthur Smith, third season (14-20 with Falcons)
2023 Strength of Schedule: .417 (Easiest in NFL)

Key Additions

RB Bijan Robinson (first-round pick, eighth overall from Texas)
S Jessie Bates III (Cincinnati Bengals)
DL David Onyemata (New Orleans Saints)
DL Calais Campbell (Baltimore Ravens)
QB Taylor Heinicke (Washington Commanders)
OLB Bud Dupree (Tennessee Titans)
LB Kaden Elliss (New Orleans Saints)

Key Subtractions

WR Olamide Zaccheaus (Philadelphia Eagles)
LB Rashaan Evans

Win Totals From Last 5 Years

2022: 7
2021: 7
2020: 4
2019: 7
2018: 7

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst who also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead. Follow him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.

Greg Auman is FOX Sports' NFC South reporter, covering the Buccaneers, Falcons, Panthers and Saints. He is in his 10th season covering the Bucs and the NFL full-time, having spent time at the Tampa Bay Times and The Athletic. You can follow him on Twitter at @gregauman.