National Football League

Mac Jones' spiral should serve as a warning for Patriots' new regime

Published Mar. 10, 2024 3:35 p.m. ET

Mac Jones and the New England Patriots are no longer a match. Their pairing worked for only one year, even if it lasted three. New England has agreed to terms to send the 25-year-old quarterback to the Jacksonville Jaguars, a source close to Jones confirmed on Sunday.

And hopefully, the Patriots have learned the harsh realities of developing a young quarterback in today's NFL. It's a temperamental process and one that requires as many soft skills as hard X's and O's.

With Bill Belichick now out of the picture, a new Patriots regime, led by de facto GM Eliot Wolf and head coach Jerod Mayo, is going to try the same process — and hope for a different result.

When the Patriots get on the board at No. 3 overall in this year's draft, they will almost certainly select a quarterback. (At least, they should.)

But New England can't do with Jayden Daniels or Drake Maye or J.J. McCarthy what it did with Jones, which was a systematic and emotional spiral. Everyone was to blame, including Jones, of course. But it's reminder that even the greatest organizations can ruin promising players.

Just look back at Jones from 2021. He led the Patriots to the playoffs during his rookie season with a 67.6 completion percentage, 3,802 yards, 22 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. With offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels overseeing the offense and Belichick running the defense, the Patriots made the playoffs for the first and only time following Tom Brady's departure. After a 10-7 season, New England lost in blowout fashion to the Bills in Buffalo in the wild-card round.

At the time, that Patriots loss felt like a moral victory. It was something to build upon. Sure, Jones had lost out on the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award to Bengals receiver Ja'Marr Chase, but he had had the most success of all the QBs in his draft class. Jacksonville's Trevor Lawrence had a brutal rookie season with a putrid supporting cast, while the Bears' Justin Fields and Jets' Zach Wilson also had rough rookie years as passers.

Lawrence — now the QB Jones will back up — has subsequently developed as a passer, thanks in part to the Jaguars investing in a solid supporting cast, from receivers Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk and Marvin Jones to tight end Evan Engram to running back Travis Etienne and offensive linemen Luke Fortner, Brandon Scherff and Anton Harrison.

New England tried something similar. The Patriots spent big in free agency in 2021 — but with less success. They hit a few key positions on offense in the NFL Draft, including first-round guard Cole Strange and second-round receiver Tyquan Thornton in 2022. But last year, Jacksonville's offense — even with all its warts — looked far more competent than New England's. Lawrence looked far more competent than Jones.

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The Patriots, meanwhile, bounced from offensive coordinator to offensive coordinator — three in as many years. They experimented with Matt Patricia, a former defensive coordinator, running the offense. They bargain-shopped at receiver and never acquired a true No. 1. They bargain-shopped at tackle and never acquired a true No. 1 (at right or left tackle).

They took far too many risks. And, in turn, they led Jones down the path to disaster.

That's exactly what the Patriots cannot do with their next quarterback prospect. New England needs to build an offensive line that can project its young signal-caller. The Patriots need continuity at offensive coordinator, allowing new OC Alex Van Pelt to stick around long enough to build an offense in which their QB can succeed. And as Wolf said, New England needs to weaponize the offense, with skill players who highlight the quarterback's talents.

Ultimately, the Patriots couldn't do that for Jones. That's why the 2023 season ended in abject disaster. He and the Patriots left zero doubt that they had no future together. He completed 64.9% of his passes for 2,120 yards, 10 touchdowns and 12 interceptions over 11 games.

If at any point Jones struggled in 2024, New England fans and the media would call for his replacement (like they did in 2023). And it would take tremendous organizational support and stability to keep Jones in a secure position to reverse his downward trajectory. All in all, the juice wasn't worth the squeeze for the Patriots.

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The Jaguars' decision to acquire Jones for a sixth-round pick makes perfect sense from a value perspective and at a personal level. Jones played high school football in the city. He's going home, where he'll back up Lawrence. If Lawrence struggles with injuries, as he did in 2023, the Jaguars might play Jones. If he excels, Jacksonville might even get a compensatory pick for the QB depending upon how much Jones signs for in free agency next year when his contract expires. If not, Jones' salary is in the range of a low-end backup ($2.8 million per year), not unlike that of Mitchell Trubisky, who just signed with the Bills for $2.6 million annually.

What the Jags did is what good teams do.

What the Patriots did with Jones is what bad teams do. That's why they're at the bottom of the league.

Jones' departure marks the end of an era that never was. And we saw what happened: The greatest NFL coach of all time, Bill Belichick, got fired. If this new regime in New England wants to start a successful era, it must learn from Belichick and Jones' mistakes.

The next quarterback and the new Patriots must avoid the pitfalls of the previous regime.

Prior to joining FOX Sports as the AFC East reporter, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.