National Football League

2024 NFL Draft No. 1 pick odds: 'Don’t see how the Bears can pass on Williams'

Published Mar. 8, 2024 10:04 a.m. ET

Most people around NFL betting circles believe it’s a foregone conclusion that the Chicago Bears will select super-talented USC quarterback Caleb Williams with the No. 1 overall pick in next month’s NFL Draft.

I vividly remember Bears fans pounding the table last March when second-year general manager Ryan Poles traded No. 1 to the Carolina Panthers for two first-rounders, two second-rounders and wide receiver D.J. Moore.

"How could he do such a thing?!"

Well, Poles added draft capital, avoided quarterbacks he wasn’t necessarily high on, and used the Panthers’ aggressiveness against them, only to see Carolina bottom out and give Chicago a second crack at picking first.

Williams is as high as -2000 ($2000 wins $100) to be announced first by commissioner Roger Goodell at Detroit’s Campus Martius Park, and assuming Poles doesn’t roll the dice again, the "Caleb to Chicago" era will commence.

"If you think Caleb Williams is going to be a star quarterback, you have to draft him and reset the clock with a rookie contract," Westgate SuperBook executive director John Murray told FOX Sports. "There’s nothing more valuable in the NFL than having a top-level quarterback on a rookie deal.

"His improvisation at USC was very impressive. That team had no defense at all, so he basically had to score 40 or 50 points every single week to win. He’s got a great arm, and he can run. He’s the modern quarterback.

"I don’t see how the Bears can pass on Williams."

The decision to draft Williams would undoubtedly signal the end of Justin Fields’ three-year tenure in Chicago, where he dealt with two head coaches and two offensive coordinators. It wasn’t exactly ideal for a young quarterback, but Fields also doesn’t have the potential and upside that Williams does.

Of course, Chicago still has Fields on its roster, and, despite rumors that the Steelers and Falcons were hot and heavy, he remains a member of the Orange and Blue. However, we’ll likely find out soon what his true trade value is.

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"It’s been difficult for Fields to succeed," Murray admitted. "I don’t think stability is considered enough when quarterbacks are evaluated. Do you think Brock Purdy would be a household name if he wasn’t in San Francisco’s system with Kyle Shanahan? Probably not. Organizations and play-callers matter.

"The NFL is all about going to the right team and the right system. I think Patrick Mahomes is one of the best players I’ve ever seen, but he wouldn’t have three Super Bowls if he wasn’t drafted and developed by Andy Reid.

"So much of Caleb’s success will be determined by who’s around him, who’s calling the plays and the strength of the organization."

It’ll be fascinating to see what happens if the Bears win five or six games and management launches head coach Matt Eberflus. That would mean Williams would have two head coaches in his first two seasons, with the potential for new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron to be shown the door, too.

What a circus that would be.

From a talent standpoint, though, Williams to Chicago would bolster a burgeoning NFC North division that saw the Green Bay Packers emerge as a top-10 offense in the second half of the season and the Detroit Lions take a 17-point lead into halftime in the NFC Championship.

"How many quarterbacks in the NFC would you take ahead of Jordan Love right now?" Murray posed. "He looked tremendous down the stretch. [Jared] Goff played great, and the Lions probably should’ve gone to the Super Bowl.

"The Bears will be the third favorite in a division behind two very good teams. We’ll probably open them around 7/2 or 4/1 to win the NFC North."

It’s too early for me to envision Chicago catapulting Detroit and Green Bay next year, but the Bears are nowhere near rock bottom. It has added plenty of talent over the last two offseasons and is arguably the best team ever to pick first overall, considering it finished 7-10 last year.

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And as we know, a franchise quarterback makes a world of difference.

Mahomes aside, the Ravens are perennial contenders with Lamar Jackson, Brock Purdy’s been to two straight NFC title games, Josh Allen’s Bills ripped off four straight AFC crowns, Joe Burrow led the Bengals to a Super Bowl berth and C.J. Stroud’s Texans won the AFC South his rookie year.

No pressure, kid.

"Caleb Williams could own Chicago," Murray foreshadowed.

"There’s nothing more important than hitting on the right quarterback. Teams mortgage tons of draft capital just to shoot their shot. Look what Denver did to get Russell Wilson. Look what Washington sacrificed to get Robert Griffin III all those years ago. Teams think it’s worth it to go all in for the right guy.

"Meanwhile, the Bears are just sitting there with the first overall pick, and they can just take Williams. They don’t have to mortgage the future to get it done. And if he becomes who I think he’s going to be down the road, we’re in for years of Bears-Packers games that’ll be monstrous for business."

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.