Major League Baseball
MLB bad beats: With 4% chance of winning, Mariners score 7, stun Astros
Major League Baseball

MLB bad beats: With 4% chance of winning, Mariners score 7, stun Astros

Updated May. 7, 2023 2:24 p.m. ET

The defending World Series Houston Astros were cruising with a 3-0 lead with two outs and nobody on in the bottom of the eighth inning against the Seattle Mariners on Saturday night.

The Mariners were held to five hits in the first 7 ⅔ innings and seemed destined to go quietly into the Seattle night air.

[RELATED: What we learned in MLB this week]

Seven hits and two walks later, Seattle — the franchise that has "Refuse to Lose" as a rallying cry — led the stunned Astros after scoring seven runs en route to a 7-5 victory.


Three of the hits in the inning — the first two and the final hit — didn't leave the infield. 

It was the first time the Houston bullpen allowed six runs in a game this season, let alone with two outs in an inning.

That's why bettors love baseball: Until the 27th out is recorded, you've got a chance.

How slim were the odds? 

Per FanGraphs, the Mariners had a 4% chance of winning when down 3-0 with two outs and none on in the eighth.

Celebrating were bettors who took the Mariners plus a run, on the moneyline (+100, bet $10 to win $20) and Over 8.5 combined runs scored on the Over/Under.

Those ripping up their tickets were bettors who were four outs from collecting on the Astros minus a run, Houston moneyline bettors (-133, bet $10 to win $17.52 total) and Under 8.5 bettors (it was 3-0 before Seattle's comeback).

The capper? The rally started against Houston reliever Rafael Montero, who pitched for Seattle in 2021.

Here's how the Mariners stunned the Astros:

— With two outs and down 3-0, Eugenio Suárez walked on a full count (meaning the Astros were one strike from getting out of the inning with the lead intact) and, after fighting off an 0-2 count (also one strike from ending the inning), Cal Raleigh reached on a check-swing infield single as third baseman Alex Bregman and shortstop Jeremy Peña collided. 

— On a 1-2 pitch (again, Houston was a strike from getting out of the inning), Teoscar Hernández reached on an infield single when Peña, ranging to his right, fielded the grounder but threw the ball away attempting to get Suárez at third base.

— Shortstop J.P. Crawford doubled to the wall in right-center field, clearing the bases to tie the game.

Taylor Trammell walked, putting runners on first and second.

Jose Caballero doubled to left-center field, scoring Crawford and Trammell to give Seattle a 5-3 lead.

Julio Rodríguez singled to center, making it 6-3.

Ty France dumped a single to left, with Rodriguez taking third.

Jarred Kelenic reached on an infield single — the third of the inning for the Mariners — to score Rodriguez and make it 7-3.

Not only did the Mariners and some bettors celebrate, Tucker the Mariners pup was in a good mood.

Seattle wasn't the only place with memorable betting results Saturday. Two other games — both involving American League West Division teams — has bettors either high-fiving or pulling their baseball caps over their eyes.

Bettors who played the Over 10.5 combined runs in the Oakland A's at Kansas City Royals game were feeling confident after Oakland led 5-4 after four innings.

You can guess what happened the rest of the way …

The Texas Rangers led the Angels 3-0 heading into the top of the ninth inning in Anaheim, California. Under 8.5 bettors were six outs from cashing in.

The Rangers exploded for seven runs — with two outs! — to take a 10-0 lead, and the Angels scored once in the bottom of the ninth to add to the agony of Under bettors in a 10-1 final.

Staying out West, Under 9.5 combined runs scored bettors were in decent shape as the Arizona Diamondbacks led the visiting Washington Nationals 3-2 heading into the bottom of the eighth inning.

The teams combined to score 10 runs in the bottom of the eighth and the ninth innings, as Arizona won 8-7.

Did you cash in on the Mariners' comeback? Head over to FOX Bet for all your MLB betting action.

Download the FOX Super 6 app for your chance to win thousands of dollars on the biggest sporting events each and every week! Just make your picks and you could win the grand prize. Download and play today!


Get more from Major League Baseball Follow your favorites to get information about games, news and more