College Football

Prepping for the NFL: How SEC coaches compare at developing offensive stars

Published Jun. 27, 2023 11:36 a.m. ET

Editor's note: This is part of an ongoing series on how college coaches fare at developing players for the NFL. Check out previous stories on ACC offensive players, ACC defensive players, Big 12 defensive players, Big 12 offensive players, Pac-12 offensive players, Pac-12 defensive players, Big Ten offensive players and Big Ten defensive players.

When it comes to NFL Draft, the SEC certainly lives up to the slogan that "it just means more."

This past spring in Kansas City, the league had the most draft selections for the 17th consecutive time, and the conference has averaged just shy of nine first-rounders per year for the past two decades.

So it should be no surprise that the first stop for many scouts is down South, particularly with Nick Saban and Kirby Smart having built NFL factories that regularly churn out double-digit picks every year.

Whether they’ve won it all in the SEC or are just getting started in a top job like Mississippi State’s Zach Arnett, though, all understand that college football remains driven by the underlying principle of having better players than your opponent. Before you even get to the Xs and Os that are on display each Saturday, having the Jimmys and the Joes tends to be the best prognosticator of success on the field.

But just how good are coaches when it comes to finding all those good players and, well, coaching them up?

Following the 2023 NFL Draft, FOX Sports pulled decades worth of recruiting data and looked into just how productive (or not) each active Power 5 coach was at both recruiting and developing players — and at what positions — when it came to the ultimate eye in the sky of the NFL.

More stories on ‘Prepping for the NFL’

In the ninth part of a series about developing NFL talent in college football, here’s a look at how some of the coaches in the SEC have fared over the years in terms of best producing offensive talent:

Quarterbacks

The Best: Nick Saban (Alabama)
Others of note: Jimbo Fisher (Texas A&M), Lane Kiffin (Ole Miss)
Surprisingly disappointing: Brian Kelly (LSU)

The greatest college football coach of all time is in a class to himself when it comes to producing draft picks for the league he once coached in — something that rings true even for the side of the ball he typically isn’t associated with. Of the whopping 163 players drafted over nearly three decades under Nick Saban, an equally impressive nine of them have been quarterbacks. That’s more than double the next closest active Power 5 coach (four) and is also indicative of how Saban himself has focused more heavily on recruiting and developing higher-quality signal-callers as offenses have become more potent.

Just this past spring, Bryce Young became the first player under Saban to go No. 1 overall in the draft, more than living up to his prep billing as a five-star out of the Southern California powerhouse Mater Dei, a school that has produced several other Heisman Trophy winners and NFL draft picks. He capped off a run of highly touted four-stars in the past four years who have gone in the top 15 of the draft in Mac Jones and Tua Tagovailoa. Only Ryan Day among active coaches could advance a similar claim of three first-round QBs in a similar time frame, albeit over five seasons in the case of the Ohio State coach.

Still, the uptick in recruiting more elite (and athletic) quarterbacks and sending them to higher draft slots is a trend that stands out considering how many other game managers have been taken under Saban prior to this recent run. Though A.J. McCarron did earn a fourth star out of high school, he wasn’t close to being a top-100 pick, while fellow title winner Greg McElroy was actually a solid case of development after earning just three-stars as a youngster. Others at LSU — and even JUCO transfer Tony Banks at Michigan State — all predated the internet recruiting service era, but a string of four QBs drafted across nine seasons as a head coach (with one in the top 50) is still better than the vast majority of coaches before even taking into account the first rounders of late.

Take LSU’s Brian Kelly for example. He’s had just three quarterbacks drafted in two decades of coaching at the FBS level and, as equally disappointing as that overall total is, only one of them (former four-star DeShone Kizer) went before the final day of the draft.

Texas A&M’s Jimbo Fisher is a bit more of a mixed record considering the number of highly ranked players he’s signed over the years, but he does earn the distinction of having all four of his quarterbacks drafted go in the top 100 (three of which were first rounders). This latter group includes former five-star Jameis Winston ticking off just about every box he could in the college game before going No. 1 overall, as well as a more developmental story in Fisher guiding Christian Ponder from an overlooked three-star out of the Dallas area to the 12th pick in 2011.

Among the rest of the SEC, Lane Kiffin is the only other active coach to have more than two quarterbacks drafted over the course of their career. Two of the three for the Ole Miss coach have gone in the top 100, but nobody has made it to the pros as either a Kiffin recruit or player who held anything other than a four- or five-star ranking.

Running backs

The Best: Nick Saban (Alabama)
Others of note: Kirby Smart (Georgia), Jimbo Fisher (Texas A&M), Lane Kiffin (Ole Miss), Eli Drinkwitz (Missouri)
Surprisingly disappointing: Hugh Freeze (Auburn)

Given how much the SEC likes to tout how physical and run-oriented it is, it’s not a huge surprise to see so many coaches have solid résumés when it comes to running back.

In terms of sheer numbers and overall productivity with recruits at all ends of the spectrum, it’s hard to select anybody other than Saban, whose 18 running backs drafted (including five first-rounders) is more than 40 of the 69 Power 5 head coaches (58%) have draft picks total.

Remarkably, 12 of his 18 tailbacks have gone in the first 100 picks, for an incredible hit rate at a position that has continually been devalued over the course of Saban’s career. Since arriving at Alabama, four of the six five-star RBs the head coach has recruited have gone on to become top-100 picks while the other two transferred out of Tuscaloosa. Among the 16 four-stars Saban has recruited through the class of 2020, six wound up going in the first three rounds of the draft, one fullback went in the fourth round, two more are still on the Tide’s roster and the rest wound up transferring.

Even further down the recruiting rankings, there are success stories under Saban, including three-star Josh Jacobs winding up as a first-rounder.

Nick Saban shares thoughts on the recruiting process

That said, former protégé Kirby Smart appears on his way to equaling or exceeding such production based on a recent and more limited track record. The Georgia coach has already had six running backs drafted in seven full seasons at his alma mater, and actually carries a higher median pick than his old boss despite having just one first-rounder in the group.

While there have not been any UGA running backs drafted who were considered three-stars or lower under Smart, the very high-end blue-chippers have been converted into pros at an incredible clip. Every four- or five-star RB he’s recruited who went to the draft, save one, has been picked by an NFL team, or is in line to start this coming season for the Bulldogs as seniors (in the case of Kendall Milton and Daijun Edwards).

This includes a host of five-stars winding up as top-100 selections like Sony Michel and James Cook, while D’Andre Swift and Nick Chubb were taken three picks into the second round after arriving in Athens as four-stars.

Texas A&M’s Fisher is further down the pecking order in terms of having just two top-100 tailbacks (five-star Dalvin Cook and four-star Devon Achane both going on Day 2) but has managed to send ballcarriers to the NFL via the draft across 13 seasons in charge. Not among them, however, were former five-stars like James Wilder Jr. and Jacques Patrick, who went undrafted.

It's worth calling attention to the job Eli Drinkwitz has done with running backs, too. Three players at the position have been drafted in just four years as a head coach, with ex-two-star Darrynton Evans winding up as a third-round, top-100 selection out of Appalachian State. Larry Roundtree III was actually the only member of the trio of guys under Drinkwitz who was rated above two-stars coming out of high school and he was just a three-star at that.

If there’s one surprise in the backfield, it’s likely centered on new Auburn coach Hugh Freeze. Despite having 10 seasons under his belt at the FBS level as a head coach and being known for some explosive, high-scoring offenses, Freeze hasn’t had a single tailback drafted in his tenure. Considering he’s produced top-100 picks at nearly every spot but guard and center on offense, the lack of just one RB drafted on his watch sticks out.

Tight ends

The Best: Brian Kelly (LSU)
Others of note: Nick Saban (Alabama), Kirby Smart (Georgia)

Brian Kelly’s shortcomings with quarterback production over the years is even more mystifying considering he’s been so good at finding quality tight ends. This goes all the way back to turning former two-star Brent Celek into a middle-rounder at Cincinnati and continues on an impressive run at Notre Dame that resulted in nine tight ends drafted — the second most among all active Power 5 coaches.

It's not just the overall figure that stands out under Kelly either, given five went in the first three rounds. Former five-star Kyle Rudolph was taken just outside the first round, while Tyler Eifert wound up as a far better example of stellar development in going from three-stars to No. 21 overall.

Though Saban isn’t too far behind, with seven tight ends drafted over the years, it’s probably Smart who could wind up challenging for the top spot with a few more draft classes under his belt — he's already produced five tight ends in seven seasons at Georgia. Two members of the group also went in the first three rounds, most recently in ex-five-star Darnell Washington joining former FSU transfer Tre’ McKitty (a three-star in HS) as top-100 selections.

It's also probably a safe bet to pencil in a future first-rounder to the mix in current star TE Brock Bowers, too — even if everybody has to wait until 2024 for things to become official.

Wide receivers

The Best: Nick Saban (Alabama)
Others of note: Josh Heupel (Tennessee), Lane Kiffin (Ole Miss), Kirby Smart (Georgia)
Surprisingly disappointing: Jimbo Fisher (Texas A&M)

Once again, Saban occupies a space to his own in both the quantity and quality of draft picks produced. The Alabama head coach has had 19 wideouts drafted in total, and he's seen 10 go in the first round. Add in seven others at the position and roughly 90% of his players drafted at receiver went in the first 100 picks.

This includes the likes of second-round picks like Muhsin Muhammad and first-rounder Plaxico Burress at Michigan State, plus top 15 selection Michael Clayton at LSU — all of whom pre-dated internet recruiting rankings coming out of high school. At Alabama, especially lately, it’s been a near assembly line at the position, and there’s been at least one first-round receiver recruited and coached by Saban in five of the last seven drafts.

All told, every five-star WR Saban has recruited to Alabama through the class of 2020 has wound up a first-round pick.

Among the group, five-stars like Jaylen Waddle and Jerry Jeudy even became top-15 picks while four-stars such as DeVonta Smith won the Heisman and did the same. There was a point where four first-rounders shared the field together for a good stretch of two years for the Tide, and they were then replaced by the likes of Ohio State transfer Jameson Williams before he eventually joined them on Day 1 of the draft.

It may be borderline impossible to catch such production at the position, but Third Saturday in October rival Josh Heupel is holding his own on the same front. He’s managed to have six wideouts drafted over the course of six seasons as a head coach, with half of them going inside the top 100. Three of the six have also been transfers, and those that weren’t were generally lightly recruited between three-star Gabe Davis at UCF to ex-two-star Cedric Tillman at Tennessee.

Ole Miss’ Kiffin has also had quite a unique track record, producing four players who have gone in the second round among the six total receivers drafted on his watch.

On the other end of the production spectrum is another former Saban assistant in Fisher. The Texas A&M coach hasn’t had a single receiver drafted since arriving in College Station, and actually only has three to his name despite coaching for 13 seasons. Kelvin Benjamin is the only player to wind up a top-100 or first-round pick, too — a drought accentuated by the fact that Fisher has recruited 22 five- or four-star receivers over the years.

Offensive line

The Best: Nick Saban (Alabama)
Others of note: Brian Kelly, (LSU), Kirby Smart (Georgia), Jimbo Fisher (Texas A&M)

Once again, it is not just the overwhelming numbers that Saban can reference when putting offensive linemen in the league, but the variety of ways he’s done it dating back to his very first guy drafted — second-rounder and future All-Pro Flozell Adams while at Michigan State.

A total of 15 tackles and 12 guards/centers have been drafted under Saban, and a remarkable 63% of them went in the first 100 picks of the draft — including nine in the first round. The diversity stands out, too, from five-star tackles like D.J. Fluker going in the first 20 picks. to a three-star guard like Chance Warmack or three-star center like Ryan Kelly doing the same.

Considering the revolving door of offensive line coaches he’s had and how notoriously unpredictable recruiting rankings are for offensive linemen in general, the success is even more remarkable.

If anybody could wind up catching or truly rivaling Saban, though, it might be Smart. While the Georgia coach lacks the output at the low end, he’s still managed 11 offensive linemen drafted in seven seasons in charge — with four going in the first round. Eight of the 11 were either four- or five-star recruits out of high school, and that includes class of 2020 blue-chipper Broderick Jones in this past draft after being taken 14th overall.

Texas A&M’s Fisher doesn’t quite track in terms of such quality atop the draft, but he's sent an average of one offensive linemen to the draft per season in charge and produced two first-rounders as well. While Kenyon Green is the only five-star who has wound up drafted (15th overall in 2022), Fisher has done well in terms of development — highlighted by two-star Erik McCoy and a guy unranked out of high school in Menelik Watson both winding up inside the first 50 picks.

Brian Kelly is also pretty exceptional considering the average star ranking of offensive linemen drafted under his watch hovers just above three stars. The current LSU head coach actually had four OL drafted across three seasons at Central Michigan, including turning two-star Joe Staley into a first-rounder and having two others go in the middle rounds. At Notre Dame, the list of success stories ran deep from first-rounders like Zach Martin and Quenton Nelson, to three-star center Nick Martin becoming a top-50 pick.

Bryan Fischer is a college football writer for FOX Sports. He has been covering college athletics for nearly two decades at outlets such as NBC Sports, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and NFL.com among others. Follow him on Twitter at @BryanDFischer.