National Football League

Bet C.J. Stroud as No. 5 pick in 2023 NFL Draft; other best wagers

Published Apr. 26, 2023 2:52 p.m. ET

If you’re like me, you wait until the last minute to do everything, including wagering on the NFL Draft.

In our defense, players' draft odds have been on the move and have changed so much from one day to the next. Keeping up with it all is pretty much a full-time job.

But don't worry because it's Geoff to the rescue. I have you covered with four, last-minute draft wagers that won’t cost you all the juice of wagering on Bryce Young to be the first pick in the draft.

Let's dive into it.

Total offensive linemen selected in first round: Under 5.5 — +350 (bet $10 to win $45 total)

There are four offensive linemen who are locks to be drafted in the first round — Northwestern’s Peter Skoronski, Ohio State’s Paris Johnson, Georgia’s Broderick Jones and Tennessee’s Darnell Wright. These are the four offensive linemen I expect to have first-round grades, although those grades might vary.

All four can play offensive tackle, a position more valued early in the draft than offensive guard. Other offensive linemen that might have first-round grades are TCU’s Steve Avlia and Florida’s O’Cyrus Torrence, and they're both guards. It's rare that centers get drafted in the first round, and I don't see any who are good enough and who have top grades. If we follow the logic that the four top linemen are drafted first and most likely within the top 20, where would the next two guards be drafted for this wager to go Over?

You’d have to look toward Dallas, Buffalo or maybe the Eagles. However, both the Cowboys and Bills have other pressing needs and the Eagles could have selected a lineman with the 10th pick, their first of the round.

Plus money for this wager is fantastic.

C.J. Stroud fifth overall pick: +800 (bet $10 to win $90 total)

This is how draft night will go: Bryce Young is going to the Panthers, then two defensive linemen will come off the board with the second and third picks. Next will be Will Levis to the Colts. That’s the wagering consensus 24 hours before the start of the NFL Draft.

If the draft does follow this pattern, Stroud will be available with the fifth pick, and someone will draft him in this slot. That someone could be the Seahawks, a team that's in the market for a future franchise quarterback after giving current quarterback Geno Smith what amounts to a one-year deal. Most likely, a team will see that the Buckeye is available at five, and they'll call the war room to make a deal with Seattle.

The Seahawks would gladly move back to add more draft capital to a team that made the playoffs last season and already has a second, first-round draft pick. Love the value here.

Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud Highlights | 2023 NFL Draft

Check out the amazing plays from former Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback C.J. Stroud.

Peter Skoronski first offensive lineman drafted: +195 (bet $10 to win $29.50)

I’m going to be stubborn and stick with my original belief that Skoronski will be the first lineman drafted because he’s the best lineman in this draft.

I do not believe all this smoke about Paris Johnson going third to the Arizona Cardinals. It would be malpractice to draft Johnson over Anderson or Wilson, two pass rushers with much higher draft grades. What makes Skoronski the pick for me and for the teams like the Bears or Eagles is his position versatility. Skoronski can play tackle or guard, which allows a team like the Bears to draft the best lineman on the board and then place him where it best fits their offensive line. The Eagles need a guard more than a tackle for now, and they could move Skoronski to right tackle when Lane Johnson eventually retires. Paris Johnson is strictly a tackle in the NFL.

Take this wager and bet on Skoronski going as the first lineman in this draft.

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Chiefs' position of first player drafted: Defensive lineman/Edge — +200 (bet $10 to win $30 total)

This wager is based on how I believe the draft will break and the idea that teams will draft based on need or best player available.

The Chiefs are drafting with the 31st pick — the final selection of the first round. They'll have the option of a wide receiver, tight end or defensive end/pass rusher. Based on analysis of experts who cover the draft, there should be far more defensive linemen with draft grades fitting of the 31st pick than, say, pick 63.

If K.C. does not draft a pass rusher at 31, the team probably won’t be grabbing one at 63 either, as other players should have higher draft grades. The Chiefs with a selection of a pass rusher at No. 31, followed by a pass catcher at No. 63 would improve their roster far more than a pass catcher at 31 and whatever else they’d do at 63.

That’s a long-winded way to say I think the Chiefs address pass rush at the 31st pick.

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter at @GeoffSchwartz.

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