Winning 300 games will require Randy Johnson-type run
No active pitcher can claim Randy Johnson’s combination of imposing height (6-foot-10) and explosive fastball (100 mph and up). But the trajectory of Johnson’s 303-win, Hall of Fame career should give hope to a number of contemporary big leaguers.
Through his age-26 season, Johnson was 24-24 with a 97 ERA+, 4.12 FIP, and 1.395 WHIP.
Last year, among all major-league pitchers in their age-26 season or younger, 22 had matched or surpassed the 24 career victories Johnson had at the same point of his career.
The full list, with assistance from Baseball-Reference.com:
PITCHER | AGE | WINS |
---|---|---|
Clayton Kershaw | 26 | 98 |
Rick Porcello | 25 | 76 |
Madison Bumgarner | 24 | 67 |
Trevor Cahill | 26 | 64 |
Mat Latos | 26 | 60 |
Mike Leake | 26 | 53 |
Chris Tillman | 26 | 45 |
Chris Sale | 25 | 44 |
Stephen Strasburg | 25 | 43 |
Jhoulys Chacin | 26 | 38 |
Mike Minor | 26 | 38 |
Alex Cobb | 26 | 35 |
Wily Peralta | 25 | 30 |
Matt Moore | 25 | 29 |
Julio Teheran | 23 | 29 |
Felix Doubront | 26 | 28 |
Henderson Alvarez | 24 | 27 |
Brett Anderson | 26 | 27 |
Vance Worley | 26 | 27 |
Shelby Miller | 23 | 26 |
Jose Quintana | 25 | 24 |
Garrett Richards | 26 | 24 |
Of that group, all but Minor and Doubront have a better ERA+ than Johnson’s 97.
As we ponder whether we’ll see another 300-game winner, it’s worth remembering this list. For all the variables involved — health, run support, bullpen performance, late-career adaptability amid diminished velocity — Kershaw, Bumgarner and the less-talked-about Porcello are off to decent starts.
Now comes the hard part: pitching like Randy Johnson did between the ages of 26 and 40.
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