San Francisco 49ers

Which QB should start Week 1 for the 49ers: Jimmy Garoppolo or Trey Lance?

Published Aug. 23, 2021 4:31 p.m. ET

The NFC West might be the league's toughest division this season.

Last season, it was the only NFC division to have three teams finish at .500 or better ⁠— the Seattle Seahawks (12-4), Los Angeles Rams (10-6) and Arizona Cardinals (8-8).

The lone exception, the San Francisco 49ers (6-10), had a 2020 season mired by injury on both sides of the ball, after making a run to the Super Bowl in 2019.

They ended the season with a league-high 18 players on injured reserve, including quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and defensive end Nick Bosa.

After losing in that Super Bowl a year earlier, the 2020 season was largely a letdown in San Francisco. However, given their injuries, it could be considered more or less a mulligan.

Nevertheless, the Niners will be counting on a return to form this season.

They were aggressive in the draft this offseason, moving up nine spots to hold the third overall pick in April. When the time came, the Niners picked a QB: Trey Lance.

Lance's introduction opened the door for a full-fledged quarterback controversy at Niners camp throughout the preseason.

In the two games the 49ers have played in the lead-up to the season, here is how the two QBs have performed:

Garoppolo: 6-for-9 for 41 yards, zero touchdowns, one interception, 59.8 passer rating average
Lance: 13-for-28 for 230 yards, three touchdowns, one interception, 91.9 passer rating average

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Of course, Garoppolo has 31 regular-season games with the Niners already under his belt, so his sample extends beyond this preseason.

With the third and final preseason game typically reserved for backups or players hoping to make the roster, 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan has yet to name his starting QB.

"No, I'm not making that announcement," Shanahan told reporters when asked about whether he’s ready to name a starter following Sunday's 15-10 victory against the Los Angeles Chargers. "Nice try, though."

When pressed further on when he plans to name a starter, Shanahan chuckled and said "Whenever I feel like it. Not tonight."

It would seem Shanahan is keeping his cards close to the vest. Reporters took one final shot at the end of the news conference, but Shanahan wouldn't budge.

"When? It's hard for me to give a date," Shanahan said. "It's based off when we know and when we feel like naming it. … I promise it will be by that Sunday."

While Shanahan remains non-committal, the debate between Jimmy G and the rookie has raged on elsewhere. On Monday's episode of "Undisputed," Skip Bayless and Shannon Sharpe delved into the discussion.

Bayless said he believes Shanahan should make the call for the 21-year-old Lance and live through the rookie's early mistakes.

"At some point, Kyle Shanahan ⁠— just because I believe strongly enough in Kyle ⁠— you need to plunge and go ahead and throw this kid into the fire," Bayless said. "… I believe this kid can stand up to that kind of heat and that kind of fire."

While Sharpe said he has seen enough from Lance to believe he's the future in San Francisco, the veteran Garoppolo should still get the start in Week 1.

Sharpe's reasoning for holding off is due to Lance's lack of experience. The rookie started just one full season in 2019 at North Dakota State and had one start in a 2020 season that was significantly altered by the pandemic.

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As Colin Cowherd of "The Herd" pointed out, there are a series of factors seemingly working against Jimmy G in his bid to start.

"Did you watch him last night? He's lost confidence," Cowherd said. "Jimmy Garoppolo has no confidence. What are the three things, for a quarterback, that crush confidence? No. 1 is injuries … he's had those. No. 2 is your coach loses confidence in you. We saw that in his last playoff run ⁠— took the ball out of Jimmy's hands. No. 3, they draft your replacement."

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As far as the oddsmakers are concerned, Garoppolo has the inside track to start.

According to FOX Bet's insights, the 29-year-old Garoppolo is priced at -450 to be under center against the Detroit Lions on Sept. 12, meaning a $10 bet would return a total of $12.22.

Conversely, Lance is going for +300, meaning a $10 bet would pay out a total of $40.

Of course, that only points toward which QB starts Week 1. The conversation could, and probably will, carry well beyond that.

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