Dallas Cowboys

Why the Cowboys are a bad Super Bowl bet despite Dak Prescott's new deal

Updated Jul. 20, 2021 6:31 p.m. ET

By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

In the least surprising news of the NFL offseason, Dak Prescott is staying put and will start at quarterback for the Dallas Cowboys in 2021.

When a big domino in NFL free agency falls, I’m usually peppered with questions about what said move does to the betting odds. People want to know what happened to a team’s odds to win the division, conference and Super Bowl.

Truth be told, Prescott’s deal didn’t change the lines one bit. That’s because bookmakers had already set their numbers with a strong belief that the QB wasn’t going anywhere.

Sure, the terms of the deal – four years, $160 million and $126 million guaranteed – made me fall out of my chair, but Prescott was a ridiculously large favorite to run it back with the Boys at least one more time.

How ridiculous? Prescott was -2500 at FOX Bet to take his next snap with America’s Team. That massive -2500 number implied a 96% probability of his being with the Cowboys next season; you would’ve had to bet $2,500 on Prescott staying in Dallas to win $100.

(Don’t ever do that, by the way.)

"No change at all," FOX Bet content integration specialist Jacob Blangsted-Barnor told me about the line movement after the deal was announced. "All of our odds were already priced with him as the starter."

With that said, it would have been silly to fire a futures wager on Dallas before the contract was signed. Now that it’s official, it’s time to bet the Cowboys (-110) to win the lowly NFC East.

That’s a very fair price, despite what some might believe. It always makes me laugh when people say they don’t like laying -110 on a future bet, but they’ll bet the Jaguars +8.5 at -110 on a random Sunday afternoon after a few Tecates.

Funny how that works, isn’t it?

Prescott is all set to reunite with running back Zeke Elliott, receivers Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup, and the best offensive line in the division when healthy. Good luck stopping that attack.

The Dallas defense gave up an alarming 473 points last season, which is definitely a red flag. That unit battled injuries like all teams do, but let’s be real: Not having franchise quarterback for 11 games changed everything.

According to Team Rankings, Dallas ranked 27th out of 32 teams in average time of possession, which will happen when you’re starting Andy Dalton, Ben DiNucci and Garrett Gilbert for nine games. There is bound to be regression toward the middle for a Cowboys defense that will undoubtedly be on the field with the lead a whole lot more in 2021.

NFC East odds via FOX Bet
Dallas Cowboys: -110
Philadelphia Eagles: +400
Washington Football Team: +400
New York Giants: +500

"We certainly view this division as the Cowboys' to lose, and the odds reflect that at a -110 favorite," JBB said. "It's a fair assumption that if Dak stayed healthy last season, Dallas could've certainly won that division — and of all the NFC East teams, they have the best player under center. Add that to an array of weapons and a defense that can only improve on last year. They should feel good about being in a division that probably doesn’t need more than nine wins to take the crown."

Oddsmakers clearly aren’t too high on Washington or Philadelphia. The former doesn’t have a quarterback, and the latter is handing over the offense to a very young Jalen Hurts. I really like Hurts’ potential, but the guys making the numbers clearly want to see him prove something over a full season.

And then there are the Giants. zZzZzZz.

"There really isn't too much separating the rest of the teams," JBB explained. "Our trading team likes Hurts, but we feel he is probably still a year or so away from being ready to lead a team to a division title.

"Washington has some pieces on both sides of the ball, but they need to figure out who the quarterback will be. They’ll probably draft a rookie who would need an unbelievable camp to get the job in Week 1. We expect them to start the season with Taylor Heinicke.

"The Giants are the underdog in the division, but not by much. They welcome back Saquon Barkley and are hopeful that one more year of familiarity for Daniel Jones with offensive coordinator Jason Garrett proves fruitful. New York is definitely a team that lacks outstanding talent at almost any position outside of running back."

While I can totally get behind Dallas -110 to win the division, I don't believe in the Cowboys in the big picture. It's very easy to stay away from the team to win the NFC (+1250) or Super Bowl (+2500).

The NFC is going to be a war in the playoffs. Six teams have better odds than Dallas to win the conference: Tampa Bay (+425), Green Bay (+450), Los Angeles (+650), San Francisco (+750), New Orleans (+800), Seattle (+1100). It's hard to argue with that order.

Dallas is good but not great.

I also refuse to put my hard-earned money on head coach Mike McCarthy making a run in the postseason. We heard rumblings about how unprepared McCarthy’s staff was last year. Plus, his 10-8 playoff record with Aaron Rodgers is still incredible for all the wrong reasons.

The NFC East should be a relatively easy mountain for the Cowboys to climb in 2021. Anything short of a division title will be a colossal failure, and heads will roll.

Count me in on Dallas to win the division, but my buck stops there.

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.