National Football League

What's up with NFL 'Unders' hitting in preseason? Plus, a trio of bets for this week

Published Aug. 19, 2021 6:05 p.m. ET

By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

If you pored over social media the past four days, you’re probably well aware that the "Under" ruled the first phase of the NFL preseason.

The low-scoring party started with a 16-3 rock fight between the Dallas Cowboys and Pittsburgh Steelers in the Hall of Fame Game on Aug. 5, and the "Unders" carried the mail throughout the first week.

A total of 14 of the 17 preseason games so far have gone "Under" the posted combined scoring total.

"You become numb to all of it," longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker Dave Sharapan told FOX Sports. "A 14-3 week is such an anomaly. It happens. The initial reaction is: Whew, thank goodness that wasn’t a regular-season week with all the handle. The second thing is that numbers are mostly higher this week [as starters take more snaps].

"More games are going to go ‘Over’ this week, and it’s not even close."

So far, the betting market is in lockstep with Sharapan’s assessment. Of the 16 totals in Week 2, 13 have been bet up from the opening number. Notable moves include the Kansas City Chiefs vs. Arizona Cardinals from 37 to 41, Cincinnati Bengals vs. Washington Football Team from 32.5 to 35 and Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New Orleans Saints from 37 to 39.

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"You have to be a little more aggressive," Sharapan strategized. "I used to move a preseason total two points if I really respected the player. I would go from 37 to 35. But I always liked to go lower that first week. Before the Hall of Fame Game [when the Cowboys-Steelers total was 33.5], I would’ve stood on the table and said ‘make the number 31 and dare them to bet Over.’

"Sides are different," Sharapan continued. "We would have this discussion in the back and it would really depend on who was in the room. Sometimes, you go from -3.5 to -4 from a strong player. If it was heavy, you could go the whole number. I had no problem going from -4 to -5. Different schools of thought."

I’m never a fan of blindly betting the entire board (like betting every "Under" and hoping for the best), and I certainly don’t come from the school of blindly zig-zagging, either. But you would be surprised how many people I spoke to that thought betting every "Under" this week was the move. Offenses won’t be as rusty having already played an exhibition game and the respected money in the market has moved the other way in 80% of the Week 2 tilts.

"NFL preseason is one of the sharpest markets there is," Westgate SuperBook executive director John Murray told me earlier this month. "Lots of sharp players get involved. Maybe they get information that this team or that team is going to play its starters three quarters. It’s very information-driven and a very tough market to book. There’s not a lot of tourist dollars."

Here are three wagers I like this week at FOX Bet:

Seattle Seahawks +5 vs. Denver Broncos (-110; bet $10 to win $19.09 total)

Holy overreaction. The Broncos opened as a 1.5-point underdog before their first preseason game against the Minnesota Vikings. After a 33-6 Denver beatdown ⁠— and a 20-7 Seahawks loss to the Las Vegas Raiders ⁠— the Broncos are -5 favorites this week. That is a wild adjustment off of one preseason game. I don’t put much stock into Denver’s win over a Minnesota squad that was down 30 players. There is also a decent chance Russell Wilson plays this week for Seattle.

Minnesota Vikings -3 vs. Indianapolis Colts (-105; bet $10 to $19.52 total)

There is a reason a team that lost 33-6 last week opened as the betting favorite this week. In fact, Minnesota opened Pick or -1 and respected players blasted them up to -2.5 and -3. Kirk Cousins is expected to go (he didn’t play vs. Denver) and Mike Zimmer is 20-6 all-time in the preseason. I put a lot more weight into a 20-6 sample size than I do a 33-6 one-off. The Vikings should mean business after being embarrassed in the opener.

New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia Eagles "Under" 38 total points (-110; bet $10 to win $19.09 total)

This one is all about style. New England’s bread and butter will be defense and its offense will still try and ground and pound you to death. Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith are both out for the Patriots, who will have to use more wide receiver personnel. That should slow the run game and force an offense that doesn’t pass well to pass more. Philadelphia only rushed for 52 yards last week against Pittsburgh, and it won’t get much easier against a rebuilt and motivated Pats front seven.

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.