National Football League

Bucs-Lions preview, predictions: Everything you need to know about battle of underdogs

Published Jan. 18, 2024 12:15 p.m. ET

NFC Central fans, unite!

NFL script writers have gifted us a phenomenal 90's throwback in a divisional-round game between the Detroit Lions and Tampa Bay Buccaneers this Sunday.

It harkens back to the last time the Lions won a playoff game, too. The year was 1991 and the world wide web had just come alive. Detroit lost in the conference championship that season and hasn't made it past the wild-card round since.

Ford Field, built in 2002, had never hosted a playoff game prior to this past Sunday evening and boy, was it absolutely rocking. Seriously, Chad Smith (of Red Hot Chili Peppers fame) put on a halftime drum performance and the crowd rapped "Lose Yourself" in unison led by Eminem himself during a quarter break.

Grown men were crying in the stands after Detroit secured the win. The footballest of head coaches in Dan Campbell cried, too. Frank Ragnow finally won in the postseason!

That's a tough place to come into, but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are no strangers to being the underdogs. They're also no stranger to recent success, contrary to these Lions. The Bucs have the second-most playoff wins since 2020 of any team, behind only the Kansas City Chiefs, and have Super Bowl hardware from that year, too. But the Greatest Quarterback of All Time actually retired last offseason and many people thought the Bucs were left for dead.

A resurgent Baker Mayfield is the captain now. He's another guy who's been cast aside, much like the Lions' Jared Goff. It's a battle of the misfit toys!

So to break this down, I have enlisted the help of FOX Sports' NFC South reporter: Hall of Fame dad-joker Greg Auman.

Greg, can the chip on the Bucs' shoulder measure up to the motivation and momentum Detroit has in this game? What's going to be the biggest factor in how Tampa Bay fares in the landlocked Motor City?

Trust Baker Mayfield’s Bucs against Detroit Lions?

Auman: There was so much emotion in Detroit after the Rams win, and it's hard to match the sheer history of such a win and such a long time coming. The Bucs are in the opposite boat, in the playoffs four years in a row and celebrating their first playoff win … in two years.

But I do think the Bucs have been motivated all year by critics writing them off in the post-Tom Brady era, and this Bucs-Lions game feels a lot like Bucs-Eagles did. Tampa Bay lost to both at home by 14 points early in the year, in games that were more lopsided than the score would indicate. The Lions dominated in Week 6 and looked like a dangerous playoff team, so the Bucs again have to show they're much better than the team Detroit saw in October.

Carmen, I have questions about this Lions defense, which has held just one of their last 10 opponents to under 20 points. They're 23rd in scoring, 27th against the pass — is that a concern?

Vitali: Oh, it's absolutely a concern — and one I've had all season. Despite fortifying their secondary in the offseason, given all the issues Detroit had in the same category last year, the Lions still didn't quite fix the problem. That was due mainly to injuries, though. Emmanuel Moseley returned for one game from an ACL tear only to tear the ACL in his other knee. It was heartbreaking. C.J. Gardner-Johnson, who Bucs fans should be familiar with, went down after Week 2 with a torn pec.

But Gardner-Johnson is back and snagged an interception to close out the regular season. He played well against the Rams, too. Detroit now has a pretty healthy safety rotation with how Ifeatu Melifonwu (otherwise known as Iffy) had come on in Gardner-Johnson's absence. Defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn also has rookie Brian Branch at his disposal on the back end, and Branch moves around the secondary quite a bit. The Lions are still very thin at corner, though. There's an opportunity for Baker Mayfield and the Bucs to attack them on the outside.

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But the defensive front and Aidan Hutchinson will be aiming to not let that happen by getting to Mayfield quickly, or at least pressuring him. Hutchinson leads the league over the last three weeks in sacks (7) and pressures (23), according to PFF.

That brings me to my question about the Bucs' offensive line. Not enough people are talking about Tristan Wirfs and his ability to be elite no matter what side of the formation he's on, but there is some youth along that offensive line. What have you seen from them recently that's opened things up for this Tampa Bay offense and is there an opportunity for the Lions to win the line of scrimmage?

Auman: I thought the Bucs' offensive line held up really well against the Eagles, save for a few third-down sacks. Wirfs has handled the shift to the left side as well as you could expect, and the rest of the line has come together nicely, from Aaron Stinnie stepping in as a midseason upgrade at left guard to rookie Cody Mauch playing every snap at right guard and Luke Goedeke really emerging as a reliable right tackle after a wobbly rookie year.

The Bucs' offense was a non-factor in the first game against Detroit – 2-for-12 on third down, only 251 yards, dominated in time of possession. Neither team ran well that day, but Tampa Bay would do so well to jump out early like they did against the Eagles, get a lead that maybe takes the edge off the crowd a bit. The offensive line can play a big role in asserting that.

How do you think all of Detroit's talented rookies handle themselves as playoff novices?

How significant was the Detroit Lions' win for Jared Goff, Dan Campbell?

Vitali: What stands out most to be about this Lions team is the immediate impact their rookies have made. Detroit has the fifth-youngest roster in the NFL; seeing success this early is a direct testament to general manager Brad Holmes and his staff. It's also a testament to how cohesively they work with Dan Campbell and his group.

Both phases of the front office are in lockstep with each other and as a result, rookies are able to acclimate immediately. It helps when you have a coaching staff full of former players, too. Rookie tight end Sam LaPorta has been as reliable a weapon as you could possibly be, shattering multiple rookie tight-end records and putting his name in conversations with Ja'Marr Chase, Michael Thomas and Odell Beckham Jr. for his first-year stat line. Seriously, those three are the only rookies to have over 80 catches, 800 yards and over nine touchdowns in league history.

Branch and running back Jahmyr Gibbs are key parts of that list of impressive first-year players. LaPorta caught a touchdown in his first playoff game, despite the fact he was fighting through injury. Gibbs ran for a touchdown and caught four passes. These players are only inexperienced in failure.

One last question about the Bucs before we get to the picks: I'd be remiss to not mention this Tampa Bay defense and how keyed in they were against Jalen Hurts and the Eagles. The creativity and precociousness of the play calling is so fun to watch. What can we expect to see in Detroit from Todd Bowles and his defensive war chest?

Auman: Creativity and precociousness is a great way to put it. Bowles loves presenting unexpected looks, especially on third downs — against the Eagles, he opened the game with four down linemen in a six-man front that had just three defensive backs on the field. You'll see outside linebackers standing up in the middle of the field, inside linebackers on the edge, 340-pound defensive tackles dropping in coverage on occasion.

The Bucs blitzed on 64 percent of Hurts' dropbacks, to tremendous success, but Jared Goff has been very good against the blitz, so beating him will likely demand an entirely different approach, getting pressure without sending extra players. That's no easy feat against Detroit's offensive line.

So we're down to predictions. The Bucs were home underdogs on Monday and beat the Eagles by 23, so it's tempting to pick them to pull off another wild one as 6.5-point underdogs in Detroit. I saw the Lions in person twice this year, and they looked really impressive, with matching 20-6 wins against the Bucs and Falcons that could have been even more dominant. So I see the Bucs giving them a great battle in hostile territory, but I'll take the Lions to advance with a 37-34 victory, setting up a strong NFC Championship Game against the 49ers. You?

Vitali: Well, if you're going to pick Detroit, maybe I should go for the upset. I think we are in for an excellent game, and while the Lions are riding all this momentum, if Bowles and his defense can get pressure on Goff, Detroit's fairytale could come crashing down. For argument's sake, I'll go 29-27 Bucs.

Carmen Vitali covers the NFC North for FOX Sports. Carmen had previous stops with The Draft Network and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. She spent six seasons with the Bucs, including 2020, which added the title of Super Bowl Champion (and boat-parade participant) to her résumé. You can follow Carmen on Twitter at @CarmieV.

Greg Auman is FOX Sports' NFC South reporter, covering the Buccaneers, Falcons, Panthers and Saints. He is in his 10th season covering the Bucs and the NFL full-time, having spent time at the Tampa Bay Times and The Athletic. You can follow him on Twitter at @gregauman.