National Football League

Betting edges on the 2023 NFL Draft: How to stack draft prop bets, play long shots

Updated Apr. 25, 2023 4:22 p.m. ET

There tend to be two ideal times to bet in markets unless you have inside information: when they open or when they are about to close.

But here we are, several days before the NFL Draft market will close, hunting for some betting angles.

Each year I’ve covered the draft has been profitable when betting. Simply put, people with solid information tend to eventually spill some of that tea. And bettors tend to find that tea earlier than bookmakers. Which is why sportsbooks tend to lose every year they book the draft.

The peak market was 2021. Sportsbooks in Las Vegas were eager to offer diverse menus. We had many draft position Over/Unders for players lined in the mid 100s and up to low 200s. And books were taking sizable limits as well. Lines were up early and stayed up late. The end result was the ability to get six figures down on the draft with relative ease.

The problem for the sportsbooks was they got killed.

And for this reason, while we once were trending in a direction where more and more draft props were being lined, now we’ve made a 180.

As a result, the market in 2022 was far worse than 2021. And it’s even worse now in 2023.

There are fewer options and far worse limits. Some spots have closed kiosk betting and are not even taking bets at the counter. Instead, everything is going through their betting apps. This allows the books to limit customers using their algorithms and system flags and makes life much less interesting for pro bettors looking to exploit draft props.

So where does that put us?

In a position where a lot of our early action this year was for small amounts and is no longer available. And we’re choosing now to wait for confirmation before we fire on some higher confidence bets closer to the draft.

But being that we’re still several days out, a strategy we’ve employed to combat the lower limits being offered is to stack similar bets on long-shot offerings. So much of what I have to share at the present are bets that are unlikely to hit but could be quite lucrative despite the lower limits.

One way to fully maximize the windfall, given the low limits, is to bet one long shot and surround it with bets that are more likely to occur if the first bet hits.

One example of this concept of stacking is looking at a player like OT Paris Johnson.

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Three days ago, our draft expert Ryan McCrystal released Paris Johnson at pick No. 3 at +4000 (40:1) odds. We were able to get it at 40:1 and 20:1.

As of Sunday night, this prop was down to +550. Whether you got 40:1 or +550, you can stack other bets around this one, including:

Paris Johnson first non-QB selected at +3000 (30:1)
Paris Johnson +400 to be a top-5 selection
Broderick Jones draft position Under 14.5 +135

If Paris Johnson goes No. 3, you win a 40:1 long shot and also stack +400 to be a top-5 selection while standing a great shot at a 30:1 long shot of him being the first non-QB selected. And if Johnson does go in the top-5, there is a very good chance the gravity of him going early will pull Broderick Jones up the board to being drafted inside the top-14 picks, and that is +135.

Just like that, we’ve taken one long-shot idea (Paris Johnson being drafted at No. 3 overall) and turned it into four bets, all at plus money, three of which are long shots, two of which are extreme long shots. There are rumors a team might come up to No. 3 for Johnson. If you think there is a chance the Arizona Cardinals sit at No.3 and draft Johnson themselves — which is possible — you could also add position of Cardinals’ first drafted player to be OL at +600. Additionally, it feels like the floor on Johnson would be the Bears at No. 9, who have a need at OL. The Under on Johnson is 9.5 at +100. So there are two more bets you could continue to add.

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Offense predicts game outcomes more than defense. The Cardinals have their franchise QB coming off an ACL injury. And regardless of the ACL, Kyler Murray is routinely injured late in the season every season. Protecting the player you gave $231M to last offseason seems like a wise investment of a top-3 pick if the Cardinals were to stay at pick No. 3. And there were even reports that Kyler Murray "likes Paris Johnson a lot and has let that be known inside the Cardinals building" per NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo.

Again, while it would be perfect to hit all of these stacks, there are so many uncertainties surrounding this draft as of Sunday night that it makes more sense to swing on a few longer shots that are strongly correlated and come back on Wednesday with some favorites with higher odds that still might be underpriced.

Another extreme long shot that has some interest is surrounding WR Quentin Johnson. His draft position prop at one point was 23.5 and was bet to the Over. It now sits at 26.5 and is still favored to go Over, indicating he will be drafted outside the top-26 picks. But there could be some overreaction in the betting market and there could now be some slight opportunity in the under. Despite the Cowboys trading for WR Brandin Cooks just over a month ago, they still met with WRs, including Johnson, in early April, indicating that WR is a position they are strongly considering. The Dallas Cowboys were contemplating adding Odell Beckham Jr. to the team last season. Cooks is 5’10" and turns 30 in September. Picking at No. 26, Dallas could target the 6’3", 208 lb 21-year-old Texas native who ran a 4.45 40 at his Pro Day.

With Johnson, you could pair Johnson to the Cowboys at +1800 (18:1), Dallas to draft a WR at +550 and Under 3.5 first-round wide receivers at -110. Why pair the under 3.5 WRs? If Dallas does go WR at 26, it’s likely they could go Johnson based on their pre-draft visits. If Dallas does not go WR at 26, based on experts whose opinion I value, the under 3.5 first-round WRs should thus be priced a favorite (right now Over is the slight favorite at -120).

Some other long shots that could be of interest:

The Los Angeles Chargers to draft Bijan Robinson +1200 (12:1) paired with Chargers to draft a RB first at +700. Like most of what we’re looking into at this point in the week, these are long shots. The Chargers are predicted to use their first draft pick on a WR (+125), but if not, a TE (+300) or a Defensive Lineman (+300).

RB is the fourth favorite. It’s unlikely to happen. But we don’t know what they are doing with Austin Ekeler and they used Ekeler a ton these last few years and at 28 years old, it’s hard to envision how much longer he can play at this level. The Chargers granted him permission to seek a trade, and the Chargers have also been vocal about alleviating his workload.

LA has swung and missed at RBs in the late rounds of the last three drafts (Joshua Kelley in Rd 4, Larry Rountree in Rd 6 and Isaiah Spiller in Rd 4). It’s clearly a position they value and now need, given the Ekeler contract situation. If Robinson slips to No. 21, it might be a situation too good to pass up.

The Las Vegas Raiders to draft Hendon Hooker at +1400 (14:1).

Reports have emerged that the Raiders have met "extensively" with Hooker and they know he’s not going to be ready to start the season, which is fine as Las Vegas has Jimmy Garoppolo in the fold. But everyone knows Garoppolo is no long-term answer for the Raiders. Could the Raiders potentially trade up to the end of the first round to get the fifth-year option for Hooker?

Right now there are seven teams priced as more likely to draft Hooker, but they could be worth a dice roll. There aren’t any long shots to partner with this, however, as it would be the Raiders second draft pick. The only closest option is to pair Raiders first drafted player to be CB at +175, as I think there is value in that market, and I don’t see the Raiders drafting Hooker where they sit. If they move up the board (a possibility) I think it would be to draft CJ Stroud and you would likely lose both of these bets.

Above are stacks that surround bets which are priced at 40:1, 30:1, 18:1, 14:1 and 12:1. Odds are, none of these will hit, so bet accordingly. But if one of these long shots does hit, we’ve stacked several other plus-money options around it, which are, therefore, more likely to win and will help to counter the fact that, unfortunately, limits are extremely low on 2023 draft props.

Warren Sharp is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He is the founder of Sharp Football Analysis and has worked as a consultant for league franchises while also previously contributing to ESPN and The Ringer, among other outlets. He studied engineering before using his statistical acumen to create predictive football models. You can follow Warren on Twitter at @SharpFootball.