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Can Astros rally in ALCS, or did Rangers deliver knockout punch in Game 2?
The Texas Rangers just delivered a huge blow to the Houston Astros with their 5-4 win at Minute Maid Park in Game 2 of the American League Championship series.
There are reasons why Monday might have been a knockout punch from Texas — but also reasons for hope with Houston.
Let's start with the Rangers.
First, Texas now goes up 2-0 in the series, increasing its chances of winning to 84%, based on historical trends. But the statistic that should make Rangers fans feel especially good is that throughout the Astros' current dynastic run of seven straight ALCS appearances and two World Series titles, they have never won a series in which they have trailed by at least two games. In other words, the way to kill the inevitable Astros is to go up 2-0 on them in a series. That is exactly what the Rangers just did.
The series now shifts back to the Rangers' house: Globe Life Field up north in Arlington, where Bruce Bochy's squad has been one of the best home teams in baseball this year. Texas had the second-best run differential and fourth-best record at home in the regular season.
The Rangers thrive in that ballpark and I have heard several players talk about how much they love playing there. The best part for them is that they now have a chance to close out the series without heading back to Houston, after which they would have home-field advantage against either of their potential World Series opponents, the Philadelphia Phillies or the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Rangers have been road warriors thus far in these playoffs, with six of their seven wins coming away from Arlington — their lower seeding and sweeps in the previous two rounds have provided them with only one home game to this point.
Another core attribute of these Rangers are how streaky they are. In the regular season, they were the only team to lose eight games in a row and win eight games in a row. Clearly, they are on a massive heater right now, with a perfect 7-0 record thus far in the postseason. That's tied for the second-longest playoff-opening win streak in baseball history. The Rangers can tie the 2014 Kansas City Royals for the top spot Wednesday night in Game 3 (FS1, 8:03 p.m. ET).
'I'm excited to see our home fans' — Rangers' Marcus Semien after defeating Astros in Game 2 of the ALCS
The last reason why the Rangers might have built an insurmountable lead in this series is because of how multifaceted they are. In Sunday's Game 1, they rode a gem from Jordan Montgomery. On Monday, their offense erupted for four first-inning runs off proven playoff veteran Framber Valdez. This team can win in so many different ways right now, which should be terrifying for the Astros.
On the other hand, if any Houston Astros team over their entire seven-year dynasty has the ability to come back from being down 2-0 in a series, it's this one. The Astros are just as comfortable on the road as the Rangers are at home. Houston was by far the best road team in baseball this year by run differential. And they really dominate up in Arlington, where they went 6-1 in the regular season.
In fact, just a few weeks ago, the Astros traveled to Globe Life Field and dominated the Rangers in historic fashion, hitting the most home runs over a three-game series in MLB history.
'Evo beared down' — Rangers' Jonah Heim on Nathan Eovaldi making adjustments to defeat Astros in Game 2 of the ALCS
One of the Rangers' starting pitchers in that game was Max Scherzer, who will take the ball Wednesday for the first time this postseason. This cuts both ways — Scherzer not only has experience in the playoffs, he has experience beating the Astros in the playoffs from his time with the Washington Nationals in the 2019 World Series. Getting him back is a huge boost for the Rangers' undermanned starting rotation. But the Astros should feel good about facing him as well, and not just because of their recent success.
Scherzer is coming off a teres major muscle strain and has not pitched in a game since Sept. 12. That is the same injury my brother Justin dealt with at the beginning of this season, when he and Scherzer were both still on the Mets. It was a complicated injury to return from. Justin had to go on a minor-league rehab assignment, then was on a pitch count for his first few starts with New York, and he was not very effective for the first month he was active following the injury.
Of course, Scherzer says he is "ready to go" and the Rangers clearly feel good enough about his status to start him. But he's supposed to come back and pitch in the biggest game of the season and look like vintage Scherzer? In the Astros' position, I'd still feel pretty good about my chances against him.
Derek Jeter and David Ortiz preview Game 3 of the ALCS: Can Astros bounce back against Rangers?
But beyond him — the Rangers need a Game 4 starter, and we have no idea who it will be. Maybe Bochy will turn to Andrew Heaney, who started Game 1 of the ALDS in Baltimore and pitched well, but has struggled at times this season. On the Astros' side, Cristian Javier will start Game 3, the biggest start he has made since he began the Astros' combined no-hitter in Game 4 of last year's World Series. José Urquidy is likely to start Game 4 after Javier; he's coming off a solid ALDS Game 4 start in Minnesota.
That puts more pressure on the Rangers' bullpen, which barely held up Monday. Both Aroldis Chapman and José Leclerc looked shaky — Chapman gave up a home run to Yordan Álvarez, while Leclerc gave up some hard contact and had to work around back-to-back walks when he entered in the eighth inning. Texas' bullpen was its weakness during the regular season but has performed much better in October.
Still, the more outs the Astros can force the Rangers' bullpen to get, the better chances they have to stage a comeback in this ALCS.
Ben Verlander is an MLB Analyst for FOX Sports and the host of the "Flippin' Bats" podcast. Born and raised in Richmond, Virginia, Verlander was an All-American at Old Dominion University before he joined his brother, Justin, in Detroit as a 14th-round pick of the Tigers in 2013. He spent five years in the Tigers organization. Follow him on Twitter @BenVerlander.
