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Why Kansas-Kentucky is the biggest game left in college basketball's regular season
It’s not that often that college basketball offers a big-time, out-of-conference game this late in the season, but Saturday's schedule features a doozy: No. 4 Kentucky hosts No. 2 Kansas in a battle between the two winningest programs in college basketball history.
Just hearing “Kansas-Kentucky” makes it feel like “Cavs-Warriors” or “Tiger-Phil.” But as big as this game looks on paper, it could have even bigger meaning in the context of this college basketball season. With each team believing it is a title contender, coming off a loss and in need of another signature win, this is the biggest game left in the college basketball regular season.
Kansas and Kentucky are among a small group of teams in position to earn a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Get a No. 1 seed and the road to at least the second weekend (if not beyond) gets that much easier. Besides the Wildcats and Jayhawks, the teams with a realistic shot at a No. 1 seed are Villanova, Gonzaga, North Carolina and Baylor, with the Pac-12 champ also in the equation depending on how things shake out.
De'Aaron Fox, Malik Monk, and Kentucky coach John Calipari
For Kentucky, this game feels especially big. Looking at the Wildcats’ resume, they probably have the best win – against North Carolina in December – of any major contender but don’t have much else to show the selection committee. UK lost its two other “marquee” non-conference games (vs. UCLA, at Louisville), and its win over Michigan State doesn’t feel nearly as big as it did in November. The Spartans are just 12-9 and aren't guaranteed to make the NCAA Tournament.
In addition, Saturday’s game will be John Calipari’s club's last true opportunity to pick up a signature win this season. The SEC is as putrid as ever; it will have four NCAA Tournament teams at best and more likely three. Florida, which appeared to be the SEC team best equipped to play with Kentucky, just snapped a two-game losing streak and is on the brink of falling out of the Top 25.
Even if the Wildcats sweep their two meetings with Florida, is a resume with a victory over North Carolina and a couple more wins over fringe tourney teams (Florida, Michigan State, South Carolina) really enough to warrant a No. 1 seed? Especially when schools like Villanova, North Carolina, Baylor and Kansas play in significantly tougher conferences? The answer is “probably not." Which why a win against the Jayhawks is so important.
For Kansas, a loss Saturday feels a little less cataclysmic on paper but could be just as bad if you dig deeper. The Jayhawks are coming off a loss, and their next game after Saturday is against Baylor on Wednesday. So dropping this game to Kentucky could lead to a three-game losing streak.
And that’s where the problem lies for Kansas. Like Kentucky, it doesn’t have a ton of signature wins (a victory over Duke looks less impressive by the day). But unlike the Wildcats, the Jayhawks have more opportunities to pick up quality wins in conference play. Of course, that could be a double-edged sword that leads to more losses. With power forward Carlton Bragg suspended indefinitely and center Udoka Azibuke out for the season with a wrist injury, it feels like the Jayhawks will be tripped up at least a few more times before the end of the season.
Therefore, this game might be even more important for Kansas. In addition to squashing a losing streak before it begins, Kansas has a chance to put a signature win atop its resume. Assuming nothing catastrophic happens, it’s hard to imagine a team with wins over Kentucky, Duke and several quality Big 12 programs not getting a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Even if there are more losses overall than a school like Kentucky has.
While Kansas and Kentucky feels big this weekend, it could be that much bigger come March.
It isn’t just the game of the weekend in college hoops, it's the most important game of the season.
