South Alabama Jaguars

WhatIfSports college football Week 2 predictions: Tennessee improves to 2-0

Published Dec. 24, 2016 8:28 p.m. ET

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Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's college football simulation engine generates predictions for every Division I FBS game for the coming week. Our highly sophisticated algorithms simulate every play of every game to produce each team's likelihood to win. Each matchup is simulated 101 times.

Week 1 in Review

After a long offseason, our college football simulation engine shook off the cobwebs and accurately predicted 72 of 87 Week 1 games. The successes included a couple of upset picks, with Toledo (+3) taking down Arkansas State 31-10 and BYU (+1) knocking off Arizona 18-16.

Nailed It: Minnesota 30 - Oregon State 23

Oddsmakers envisioned Minnesota to handle Oregon State, installing the Gophers as 13-point favorites. We predicted a closer game, however, picking Minnesota to win 56.4 percent of the time and outscoring the Beavers by an average margin of of 26.8-25.6. Two fourth-quarter touchdowns by Gophers erased a 23-17 deficit as the team won 30-23.

Wide Right: South Alabama 21 - Mississippi State 20

When an SEC school plays a member of the Sun Belt, it's usually a safe assumption that the SEC team will triumph. We placed Mississippi State's odds to beat South Alabama at 74.3 percent. At the half, the Bulldogs led 17-0. Heading into the fourth quarter, the score was 20-7. But two fourth-quarter touchdowns by South Alabama, the second with 57 seconds remaining, delivered the Jaguars a huge 21-20 upset.

Track our 2016 performance or view our accuracy last season, when we correctly picked the winner in 80.0 percent of all games involving FBS teams.

Week 2 Games to Watch

Arkansas at No. 13 TCU

Hunting for Top 25 matchups was a struggle this week, so we went with some solid games that may not have high-ranking aspirations. This battle between the Big 12 and SEC made the cut. Both of these teams were victorious last week, but allowed way too many points against weaker opponents. The Horned Frogs were locked up with South Dakota State until the third quarter before earning the 59-41 win. Arkansas needed a fourth-quarter comeback in order to defeat Louisiana Tech by a score of 21-20. Our simulation engines don't believe the Razorbacks can make another come-from-behind win. TCU wins 52.5 percent of the time by an average score of 26.9-25.6.

BYU at Utah

The Holy War has gone the way of Utah in the past five matchups, including twice last year (2015 Las Vegas Bowl). The Utes own the series overall record, too (58-34-4). Transfer quarterback Troy Williams won his first start for the Utes last week (24-0 over Southern Utah). Kalani Sitake won in his debut, as well. The new BYU head coach made the right move starting Taysom Hill at QB and earned the close 18-16 win over Arizona. One team will receive its first loss of the season and our computers say it will be the Cougars. Utah wins 56.4 percent of the simulations by an average score of 27.2-24.3.

Virginia Tech vs. No. 9 Tennessee

Gentlemen, start your engines! The Hokies and Volunteers square off at Bristol Motor Speedway in what is expected to be the largest crowd on-hand for a college football game (estimated attendance around 150,000). Tennessee might've had their sights on this game one week too soon. The Volunteers needed overtime to beat Appalachian State 20-13 at home. Virginia Tech won its opener thanks to new starting QB Jerod Evans (221 passing yards and four TDs). However, our computer simulations suggest the SEC will win this contest 59.4 percent of the time by an average score of 26.8-25.4, in favor of the Vols.

Week 3 Upset Pick

Penn State (+6) at Pittsburgh

Instate rivals Penn State and Pitt meet in Heinz Field (Pitt's home) on Saturday afternoon. Both won their first game of 2016 by at least 20 points. Both teams also rely heavily on their ground attack. The Nittany Lions have sophomore Saquon Barkley. He rushed for over 100 yards and a TD in Week 1. The Panthers have James Conner. He tallied 69 total yards and two TDs in his emotional return. Our computers give the edge to the Big 10 in this one 55.4 percent of the time by an average score of 26.2-24.8.

College Football Week 2 Predictions
Matchup	Win %	Avg. Score
Charleston Southern Buccaneers	5.0	9.0	Box Score
@ Florida State Seminoles	95.0	52.6
Mercer Bears	5.0	6.5	Box Score
@ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	95.0	47.7
Troy Trojans	19.3	22.9	Box Score
@ Clemson Tigers	80.7	32.8
Florida Atlantic Owls	20.3	20.6	Box Score
@ Miami (FL) Hurricanes	79.7	29.0
Wake Forest Demon Deacons	48.0	24.3	Box Score
@ Duke Blue Devils	52.0	25.8
Penn State Nittany Lions	55.4	26.2	Box Score
@ Pittsburgh Panthers	44.6	24.8
Louisville Cardinals	68.3	29.4	Box Score
@ Syracuse Orange	31.7	22.4
Indiana State Sycamores	5.0	6.8	Box Score
@ Minnesota Golden Gophers	95.0	43.6
Howard Bison	5.0	7.6	Box Score
@ Rutgers Scarlet Knights	95.0	45.2
Illinois State Redbirds	5.0	8.9	Box Score
@ Northwestern Wildcats	95.0	46.1
UCF Knights	17.8	21.4	Box Score
@ Michigan Wolverines	82.2	33.2
Akron Zips	23.8	21.3	Box Score
@ Wisconsin Badgers	76.2	29.0
Iowa State Cyclones	23.3	21.2	Box Score
@ Iowa Hawkeyes	76.7	28.5
Wyoming Cowboys	29.7	28.0	Box Score
@ Nebraska Cornhuskers	70.3	33.2
Tulsa Golden Hurricane	30.7	23.3	Box Score
@ Ohio State Buckeyes	69.3	31.4
Ball State Cardinals	40.7	29.4	Box Score
@ Indiana Hoosiers	59.3	32.5
Cincinnati Bearcats	62.4	31.8	Box Score
@ Purdue Boilermakers	37.6	27.0
North Carolina Tar Heels	66.8	30.2	Box Score
@ Illinois Fighting Illini	33.2	23.6
Maine Black Bears	5.0	8.3	Box Score
@ Toledo Rockets	95.0	50.6
North Carolina Central Eagles	5.0	7.6	Box Score
@ Western Michigan Broncos	95.0	51.6
North Carolina A&T Aggies	5.0	7.2	Box Score
@ Kent State Golden Flashes	95.0	38.4
Eastern Illinois Panthers	5.0	9.6	Box Score
@ Miami (OH) RedHawks	95.0	42.1
North Dakota Fighting Hawks	5.0	7.5	Box Score
@ Bowling Green Falcons	95.0	45.6
Idaho State Bengals	5.0	6.9	Box Score
@ Colorado Buffaloes	95.0	48.0
Grambling State Tigers	5.0	6.6	Box Score
@ Arizona Wildcats	95.0	50.4
Idaho Vandals	24.8	24.1	Box Score
@ Washington Huskies	75.2	34.3
UNLV Rebels	33.7	25.4	Box Score
@ UCLA Bruins	66.3	32.4
Virginia Cavaliers	37.6	27.5	Box Score
@ Oregon Ducks	62.4	32.3
BYU Cougars	43.6	24.3	Box Score
@ Utah Utes	56.4	27.2
Utah State Aggies	43.6	28.6	Box Score
@ USC Trojans	56.4	31.0
Texas Tech Red Raiders	47.5	30.9	Box Score
@ Arizona State Sun Devils	52.5	31.2
Jacksonville State Gamecocks	5.0	6.1	Box Score
@ LSU Tigers	95.0	49.4
Wofford Terriers	5.0	6.2	Box Score
@ Ole Miss Rebels	95.0	50.4
Prairie View A&M Panthers	5.0	7.0	Box Score
@ Texas A&M Aggies	95.0	48.1
Nicholls Colonels	5.0	8.5	Box Score
@ Georgia Bulldogs	95.0	47.8
Eastern Michigan Eagles	25.2	23.6	Box Score
@ Missouri Tigers	74.8	30.2
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers	30.7	26.7	Box Score
@ Alabama Crimson Tide	69.3	32.1
Kentucky Wildcats	35.6	23.9	Box Score
@ Florida Gators	64.4	28.6
Virginia Tech Hokies	40.6	25.4	Box Score
@ Tennessee Volunteers	59.4	26.8
Arkansas State Red Wolves	41.6	24.5	Box Score
@ Auburn Tigers	58.4	27.6
South Carolina Gamecocks	41.6	26.7	Box Score
@ Mississippi State Bulldogs	58.4	29.9
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders	47.5	26.3	Box Score
@ Vanderbilt Commodores	52.5	26.7
Nevada Wolf Pack	20.8	24.9	Box Score
@ Notre Dame Fighting Irish	79.2	34.1
Rice Owls	47.8	27.9	Box Score
@ Army West Point Black Knights	52.2	28.6
Boston College Eagles	62.9	26.0	Box Score
@ Massachusetts Minutemen	37.1	21.6
Youngstown State Penguins	5.0	6.7	Box Score
@ West Virginia Mountaineers	95.0	45.4
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks	8.4	21.9	Box Score
@ Oklahoma Sooners	91.6	35.6
SMU Mustangs	15.8	23.1	Box Score
@ Baylor Bears	84.2	35.8
UTEP Miners	25.2	24.2	Box Score
@ Texas Longhorns	74.8	32.1
Central Michigan Chippewas	34.7	26.3	Box Score
@ Oklahoma State Cowboys	65.3	31.8
Arkansas Razorbacks	47.5	25.7	Box Score
@ TCU Horned Frogs	52.5	26.9
Ohio Bobcats	52.0	27.5	Box Score
@ Kansas Jayhawks	48.0	26.4
Savannah State Tigers	5.0	8.0	Box Score
@ Southern Miss Golden Eagles	95.0	48.8
Bethune-Cookman Wildcats	5.0	10.0	Box Score
@ North Texas Mean Green	95.0	40.5
South Carolina State Bulldogs	5.0	7.9	Box Score
@ Louisiana Tech Bulldogs	95.0	47.3
Elon Phoenix	5.0	8.1	Box Score
@ Charlotte 49ers	95.0	36.8
Morgan State Bears	5.0	8.2	Box Score
@ Marshall Thundering Herd	95.0	47.3
Maryland Terrapins	58.4	29.1	Box Score
@ FIU Golden Panthers	41.6	25.6
Portland State Vikings	5.0	8.6	Box Score
@ San Jose State Spartans	95.0	43.0
Sacramento State Hornets	5.0	7.9	Box Score
@ Fresno State Bulldogs	95.0	42.8
UT Martin Skyhawks	5.0	9.3	Box Score
@ Hawaii Rainbow Warriors	95.0	40.9
Georgia State Panthers	27.7	27.0	Box Score
@ Air Force Falcons	72.3	32.7
California Golden Bears	41.6	27.9	Box Score
@ San Diego State Aztecs	58.4	29.4
UTSA Roadrunners	44.3	26.3	Box Score
@ Colorado State Rams	55.7	27.9
Washington State Cougars	44.6	32.5	Box Score
@ Boise State Broncos	55.4	33.6
McNeese State Cowboys	5.0	8.5	Box Score
@ Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns	95.0	43.5
Old Dominion Monarchs	26.7	27.6	Box Score
@ Appalachian State Mountaineers	73.3	35.2
Georgia Southern Eagles	51.5	30.0	Box Score
@ South Alabama Jaguars	48.5	28.0
New Mexico Lobos	68.3	33.4	Box Score
@ New Mexico State Aggies	31.7	27.9
Stony Brook Seawolves	5.0	7.1	Box Score
@ Temple Owls	95.0	44.7
Lamar Cardinals	5.0	9.2	Box Score
@ Houston Cougars	95.0	50.1
Southern University Jaguars	5.0	7.8	Box Score
@ Tulane Green Wave	95.0	40.3
Connecticut Huskies	43.6	26.3	Box Score
@ Navy Midshipmen	56.4	28.1
Northern Illinois Huskies	43.1	26.1	Box Score
@ South Florida Bulls	56.9	28.6
North Carolina State Wolfpack	54.5	27.9	Box Score
@ East Carolina Pirates	45.5	24.6