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ACC's playoff fate lies in hands of Saturday's Clemson vs. Florida State showdown
We've seen this before.
Clemson and Florida State will meet on Saturday afternoon at Memorial Stadium in a game that could determine the ACC Atlantic Division champion -- the Tigers clinch with a win; a Seminoles' victory would give them the inside track -- and the favorite for representing the conference in the College Football Playoff.
The winner of the matchup has gone on to win the ACC championship in four straight seasons and played in that game in six straight.
This will be the fifth consecutive matchup where both teams come into the rivalry with one combined loss or less. Since 2011, the combined record of the Tigers and Seminoles going into the contest is 40-3.
At 8-0, it's the first time since '13 the Tigers enter this game undefeated. That season, Clemson was No. 3 in the nation and taking on the fifth-ranked and 6-0 Seminoles. Jameis Winston and Co. laid it on the Tigers in a dominant 51-14 win that ruined the Tigers' chance at a title game.
They've been 8-0 before, traveling to Atlanta in 2011 only to lose to an unranked Georgia Tech team 31-14, the beginning of a fall that saw Clemson drop four of the final six.
While all signs historically point to this possibly being the game that Clemson has its letdown, the Tigers have already shaken their past in so many ways. They have clawed through the 2015 season with both utter dismantlings of opponents and hard-fought contests where the team refused to see a mark in the loss category. Last week, in a matchup that represented the exact definition of a trap game, the Clemson offense scored 30 second-half points to manage a two-touchdown victory in Raleigh against NC State.
Clemson has achieved its success by dominating on both sides of the ball.
This comes as no surprise offensively, where the Tigers returned quarterback Deshaun Watson and running back Wayne Gallman.
The real surprise has been the defense somehow nearly returning to its NCAA-leading form from 2014. Despite losing seven starters -- including Vic Beasley, Stephone Anthony, and Grady Jarrett, whom all are playing significant time on Sundays -- Clemson has managed to reload and ranks as one of the top defensive units in 2015.
After finishing 2014 ranked first in Defensive Fremeau Efficiency Index (DFEI) and fifth in total yards allowed, the Tigers have rebounded to rank fifth in both DFEI and total yards allowed through the first eight games. With the amount of turnover, Brent Venable's defense has defied odds to once again consistently put the team in position to win.
It's also helped that Watson has remained healthy while completing over 70 percent of his passes for nearly two thousand yards and 20 touchdowns. He's added another 386 yards and four touchdowns on the ground. In the backfield, Gallman has turned into a workhorse.
His 159 carries are just two fewer than he totaled in all of 2014, and Gallman's 874 yards and seven touchdowns have already surpassed last season's final marks.
On the other end of the spectrum, Florida State's rebound from major turnover on the roster hasn't looked quite as effortless. Despite that, the Seminoles have just one loss, which came on one of the most ridiculous endings you'll ever see in a football game against Georgia Tech two weeks ago in Atlanta.
Dalvin Cook has undeniably been the bright spot on the team. He has 127 carries for 1,037 yards on the season, and his 8.2 yards per carry ranks third in the nation. Though Cook has been spectacular, the Seminoles have been unable to establish a consistent passing game down the field that Winston excelled at in Tallahassee.
Quarterback Everett Golson was efficient in his seven starts with just one turnover, but after Sean Maguire got the start due to a Golson injury and displayed a vertical passing attack, questions started appearing on who should start against Clemson.
That starter still hasn't been named as of late Thursday night. Maguire's only other career start came in an overtime win against Clemson last season after Winston was suspended for the game. He threw for 304 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions.
Regardless of who the quarterback will be, the stakes will be nearly as high as either team could ask for at this point in the season. When considering the remainder of both teams' schedules, the game can be seen as an elimination game for the CFP for both programs. Florida State has come out on top in this style of matchup three years in a row, but Clemson players and the playoff committee believe they're the number one team in the nation ... and they're playing like it.
By Saturday night, the scope of the ACC should be much clearer.
