National Football League

NFL odds Week 17: Bet on the Rams, a three-team teaser and more

Updated Jan. 2, 2022 12:45 p.m. ET

By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

NFL Week 17 is finally here!

It's the final week of the year, and the NFL regular season has everyone drained. The extra week has been fantastic for getting more teams in the playoff mix and extending to seven teams is fun for drama, but handicapping for four straight months wears you down.

This week has been particularly tricky as I was on the road, especially trying to follow the COVID-19 rule changes and injuries to key players in the trenches that the public usually ignores. The rule changes are massive because being on the COVID-19 list almost certainly meant missing a game. Now, it's practically an "honor system" situation if you have the vaccine but test positive. Huge!

Now let's get into my best bets, with odds via FOX Bet.

Atlanta Falcons @ Buffalo Bills (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)

This pick comes with the obligatory, "you can't win long-term betting on double-digit favorites." The problem is when you do a fundamental breakdown of these teams and this matchup, this game screams Bills by a lot.

The Bills, a one-time Super Bowl favorite, have smashed bad teams to smithereens (the Jacksonville debacle, notwithstanding). And the Falcons have looked bad, facing anyone remotely good this season, going 1-6 against teams that are currently above .500. Their lone win was against the Dolphins when the Falcons had Calvin Ridley (10 targets).

Atlanta isn't built to go into Buffalo — snow is expected in the morning, and temperatures will be in the 20s at kickoff — and win. This game has all the makings of a 38-10 Buffalo romp.

PICK: Bills (-14 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 14 points

Los Angeles Rams @ Baltimore Ravens (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)

The Rams went to Minnesota last week and registered an ugly win despite three Matthew Stafford interceptions. They are now on the road again to face a desperate and injured Ravens team.

This weekend, the Rams will be a public play because of the injuries/ COVID-19 problems plaguing the Ravens. But Jimmy Smith and Tavon Young are expected back in the secondary for Baltimore, which should help against the best receiver in the NFL this year, Cooper Kupp. But, Baltimore's problems on the offensive line will be magnified against Leonard Floyd and Aaron Donald. The Rams will own the trenches.

Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson returned to practice this week, but it's unclear whether Jackson or Tyler Huntley (3-0 ATS) will be under center. This spread could balloon if Huntley ends up starting.

The Ravens were 9-point underdogs against the Packers two weeks ago; expect the Rams to be laying a touchdown against Huntley.

PICK: Rams (-7 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 7 points

Three-team, 7-point Teaser

Miami Dolphins teased from +3.5 to +10.5

I like Tennessee against an overrated Dolphins team that has won seven in a row. Consider the QBs Miami has beaten: Tyrod Taylor, Lamar Jackson (on Thursday night football), Joe Flacco, Cam Newton, Mike Glennon, Zach Wilson and Ian Book. The 'Fins defense won't look as dominant against Ryan Tannehill and A.J. Brown.

While the Titans should dominant the line of scrimmage, the weather will come into play. With rain and wind (19 mph) expected, I expect this to be a low-scoring, close game. It'll be ugly, which is why I will grab the extra points with the Dolphins.

Green Bay Packers teased from -6.5 to +.5

The Packers are considered by many to be the best team in the league, yet the numbers say they're not nearly that dominant. The Packers rank ninth in net yards per play, behind the Raiders, Browns and Patriots.

The Vikings are likely to make this interesting, as they do every week. Look for Minnesota to run Dalvin Cook into the ground, as he tore apart Green Bay last year in a win at Lambeau (163 yards, 3 TDs). This is why the Pack are a great teaser leg here.

Dallas Cowboys teased from -5 to +2

This move doesn't apply to the fundamental rules of teasing games — through the 7 and the 3 — but short of a significant COVID-19 outbreak, I'm not sure how Arizona can keep up with Dallas offensively.

Arizona was without its three best offensive weapons against Indy — Rondale Moore, DeAndre Hopkins, James Conner — and struggled to put points on the board despite only punting once. The Cardinals now face the Cowboys, who have the No. 1 rated DVOA defense.

The Cardinals are safely in the playoffs, and their only chance at a postseason run is being healthy — and that includes quarterback Kyler Murray.

JMAC's Teaser

Dolphins +10.5
Packers +.5
Cowboys +2

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.

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