National Football League

Can The Ravens Weather The Steelers?

Updated Jul. 14, 2021 3:36 p.m. ET

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By Jason McIntyre

As the calendar turns from October to November, for the first time this season, weather begins to play a big factor in NFL handicapping. 

Enter the NFL Challenge contest on the FOX Super 6 app for free and you can win this week's $1,000,000 jackpot! Download now at foxsuper6.com!

In at least four games this weekend, and as a result, we’ve already seen totals move down due to expected inclement weather. The over/under in Minnesota vs. Green Bay has cratered by five points – not because temperatures are going to dip into the high 30s or low 40s, but because the forecast is calling for 22 mph winds.

Same thing in Buffalo (where the total went from 46 to 41) for the AFC East showdown between the Bills and Patriots (rain all day, 22 mph winds). The Raiders and Browns will be playing in 24 mph winds and rain, and that total has plummeted from 55.5 to 51. The total in Chicago has gone down from 47 to 43.5 due to typical crummy Chicago temperatures (21 mph winds).

Keep one eye on NFL lines and the other on Al Roker midway through the NFL season. (All odds via FOX Bet.) 

RIDE WITH ME ON THIS, THANK ME LATER

Pittsburgh Steelers (+4) at Baltimore Ravens

Wrote about this game in the teaser column and in the Super 6, but here’s one more note on why I like the Steelers so much. The team with the fewest passing yards in the NFL this season is Baltimore. Yes, fewer passing yards than the Jets. Lamar Jackson hasn’t eclipsed 200 yards passing in the last four games.

Last year, Jackson had 36 TDs and only took 23 sacks. This year, he’s at 10 and 15, respectively. Obviously, the Ravens have played an easy schedule and Jackson is mostly handing off, but we’ll find out Sunday if the Ravens have what it takes on the outside to win against an elite defense.

They might. I just need to see it.

ROAD CHALK IS DANGEROUS, PART 1

Tennessee Titans (-5) at Cincinnati Bengals

Regular readers of this space know I’m lukewarm on the Titans because of that porous defense. Fading them last week worked, and the second half of the schedule has some landmines. But this is a spot to load up on Tennessee.

The Bengals have been plucky behind Joe Burrow, and he’ll be able to move the ball against this lackluster Titans pass defense through the air (although the Titans’ best cornerback, Adoree Jackson, is expected to finally play this week).

But it looks like Burrow will have to do it again without RB Joe Mixon (foot), and also three offensive linemen missed practice Wednesday and Thursday. Derrick Henry can pick his number against a run defense giving up 133.7 yards per game.

ROAD CHALK IS DANGEROUS, PART 2

New Orleans Saints (-4.5) at Chicago Bears 

The Saints offense, even without its top two receivers (Emmanuel Sanders and Michael Thomas), racked up 415 yards, didn’t punt, and went 12-for-14 on third down against the Panthers. It’s unclear if either pass catcher will be back against the Bears, but this pick is more about Chicago.

The Bears have one player that strikes fear into defenses – Allen Robinson. He’s been in concussion protocol all week and is unlikely to play. With the aforementioned wind a factor, I’m not sure how Chicago moves the ball on the fourth best run defense in the NFL, especially if the anchor of their offensive line, Cody Whitehair, sees his streak of 71 straight games played snapped by a calf injury.

MAYBE IT’S TIME TO LET THE OLD WAYS DIE, GAMBLING EDITION

Los Angeles Chargers (-3) vs Denver Broncos

You know how the blackjack cheat sheet says you never split a pair of 10s? There’s an unofficial NFL gambling cheat sheet that says never back a below average coach (Anthony Lynn certainly qualifies) on the road as a favorite with a rookie QB (Justin Herbert).

I say to hell with the old ways. Lynn is actually 7-4 against the spread as a road favorite (sample size!) since taking over as head coach in 2017. Justin Herbert is the ROY leader, and he’s covered on the road facing two top 10 defenses (Tampa, New Orleans).

Denver’s two wins are against the winless Jets and a Patriots team that has a bottom three roster in the NFL. Drew Lock has yet to have a good game against a Top 15 pass defense, and the Chargers are currently 11th. LA has a healthy Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa; the Broncos have 11 players on IR, fourth-most in the NFL..

WOULDN’T BET IT IF YOU GAVE ME THE MONEY

New York Jets (+19.5) at Kansas City Chiefs

You’re "supposed" to take the Jets as an autoplay, because 19.5 points means even if the Chiefs sleepwalk and win 31-13, you win!

Surely people said that last week when the Chiefs faced the Broncos. K.C. went 0-for-8 on third down, Patrick Mahomes threw for just 200 yards, and the Chiefs still covered easily in Denver. Now they’re at home against a Jets team that didn’t force the Bills to punt last week? No thanks.

Given the concussion to Breshad Perriman and Jamison Crowder’s injury, there’s a decent chance Sam Darnold goes to Arrowhead throwing to Jeff Smith, Braxton Berrios and Denzel Mims. That imposing trio has 37 career catches.

Sorry, I’ve got better things to do with my money. Pass.

Enter the NFL Challenge contest on the FOX Super 6 app for free and you can win this week's $1,000,000 jackpot! Download now at foxsuper6.com!

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Jason McIntyre