National Football League

Playing Favorites In Week 8

Updated Jul. 14, 2021 2:57 p.m. ET

By Jason McIntyre

The toughest sports gambling market to consistently be successful in is the NFL. Your average week consists of heart-stopping finishes like the Lions/Falcons thriller in Week 7, the Browns missing a miraculous cover on an extra-point shank with :11 left, and the Cardinals going from cover to loss to push to victory in the final four minutes and overtime.

But you can find an edge in ML parlays and teasers. Here’s what I’m looking at early for Week 8 (with all odds via FOX Bet).

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Money line parlay – 3-teamer at +299 ($100 wager would return $399)

Indianapolis Colts (-162) at Detroit Lions. The Colts are coming off a bye, but there’s one huge injury that you must know about before playing this game – Indy MLB Darius Leonard. If he’s in, the Colts are the side. Without him, Indianapolis struggled to stop Baker Mayfield (loss) and Joe Burrow (win, no cover).

A trend to watch: Rookie running backs have feasted historically off the bye, and that includes Detroit's D’Andre Swift two weeks ago (116 yards, 2 TDs). Jonathan Taylor may be in line for a big day against the the Lions run defense, which ranks 29th in efficiency.

The Colts pass defense is third, but consider the QBs they faced: Gardner Minshew, Kirk Cousins, Sam Darnold, Nick Foles, Mayfield, and Burrow. Stafford is a much larger challenge.

Seattle Seahawks (-175) vs. San Francisco 49ers. Left for dead two weeks ago after an embarrassing loss to the Dolphins, the 49ers have rallied around the run game, gashing the Rams and Patriots in consecutive weeks.

But those two teams rank 21st and 18th stopping the run; Seattle is eighth. While the Seahawks struggled to contain Kyler Murray (67 yards, TD), Garoppolo is a pocket passer. Compounding matters, the 49ers lost their best receiver, Deebo Samuel (hamstring) and running back Jeff Wilson (ankle) in the win over New England, and both are out.

Seattle, stunned in overtime against Arizona, is 35-19-3 against the spread (64 percent) after an outright loss under Pete Carroll.

Los Angeles Chargers (-175) at Denver Broncos. The Broncos have been decimated by injuries, and the win over the Patriots may have been a fluke, catching New England beat-up after Covid.

Still, their pass defense has been formidable, (ninth in efficiency prior to Week 7), and the idea of Justin Herbert as a favorite on the road against a Vic Fangio defense will keep me up at night. Then again, Herbert had a combined seven touchdowns and one interception on the road against the Bucs and Saints.

The Chargers, surprisingly, are 7-4 ATS as away favorites under Anthony Lynn, and they’ve played better away from Los Angeles of late (4-0-1 ATS in their past five road games).

Teasers

This has been a tremendous season for teasers, and if you’ve been reading this, space you know it’s an auto-play to take favorites in the 7.5-point range down to 1.5-ish and roll them together. Last week, Saints -7.5, Chiefs -9.5 and Chargers -7.5 teased by five, six or seven was a layup.

Unfortunately, as of today (Tuesday), no such games exist. So you’ve got to get creative. Here’s a four-team, 7-point teaser.

Green Bay Packers (-6.5 to +.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings are coming off a bye, which is not a spot Mike Zimmer has been profitable in (2-5 ATS). They already traded their best player on the defensive line (Yannick Ngakoue), and several other veteran starters have to be wondering about their future ahead of the trade deadline (Anthony Harris, Kyle Rudolph, Riley Reiff).

Minnesota gave up 522 yards and 6.9 yards per play to the Packers in the opener, and didn’t sack Rodgers once. Meanwhile, Green Bay defensive coordinator Mike Pettine bottled up Kirk Cousins last year in two games (six sacks, three interceptions, one fumble).

Their best hope would be if the Packers are looking ahead to next week’s showdown with the 49ers, who beat them badly twice last season. Having already hammered the Vikings, maybe they come in overconfident and let Minnesota hang around.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10.5 to -3.5) at New York Giants. The Bucs are considered the best team in football by most advanced metrics, so sports books are going to push their price up very high to try and minimize teaser liability.

This is a nightmare matchup for Daniel Jones and the Giants, because the Bucs rank fourth in defensive pressure rate, second in sacks (25), and fourth in blitz percentage. The second-year QB has struggled big time when pressured, completing just 47 percent of his passes and throwing three interceptions.

Miami Dolphins (+4.5 to +11.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams. You’ve gotta have some skin in the game for Tua’s debut, right? The Rams will be making their fourth trip to the East Coast (at Eagles, at Bills, at Washington, at Miami), and on a short week after MNF against physical Chicago. That can’t be fun.

The concern here is Miami’s 32nd-rated run defense against the Rams' No. 1 rushing offense. Don’t be surprised if the Dolphins bring both safeties into the box and leave arguably the best pair of cornerbacks in the NFL on islands to sell out against the run.

If backing a rookie QB with two NFL throws under his belt makes you queasy, hold your nose and grab the Eagles instead against what could be the Cowboys third-string QB.

Buffalo Bills (-3.5 to +3.5) vs. New England Patriots. One of the biggest surprises of the season was the 49ers thumping the Patriots in Foxboro 33-6. San Francisco took advantage of a clueless Patriots defense and went with play-action on 51 of 63 plays, with Jimmy Garoppolo hitting 13-of-14 passes for 146 yards.

Guess who is the most prolific play-action passer in the NFL? Josh Allen has completed and attempted the most play-action passes this season (60-for-92) with 8 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. The Patriots may run the ball 50 times to keep it close, but there’s a real chance Buffalo takes out two decades of frustration on Belichick and opens a can here.

Enter the NFL Challenge contest on the FOX Super 6 app for free and you can win this week's $1,000,000 jackpot! Download now at foxsuper6.com!