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Sharp bettors break down how to wager on USFL's second season
There are three weeks left in the USFL regular season, followed by two weekends of playoffs in the eight-team league. That means there are still plenty of opportunities to bet into USFL odds, and of course to watch those games on FOX, FS1 and the FOX Sports App.
"Opportunities" is the operative word in that previous sentence.
In its second season as a spring/early summer football league, the USFL is proving profitable for bettors who take even a little time to dive into odds movement compared with how the games actually play out.
Will Hill, contributor to the Vegas Stats and Information Network (VSIN), and Mark Drumheller, betting analyst for Yahoo! Sports, provide their insights on what’s happened so far and how that might play into what happens over the final month in the USFL odds market.
Out of Line
Ever since the 2023 season began, odds on USFL games have been volatile, to say the least. Massive line moves were the norm early in the season, as bookmakers favored an aggressive approach for games tending to draw sharp action.
That tendency continues as Week 8 approaches. And just as Hill noted earlier in the season, the moves oftentimes prove too aggressive.
"I would say it’s a lot more of the same. These big line moves continue to be incorrect," Hill said. "I think [sportsbooks] are copying the line moves, and people continue to bet it. You keep seeing a lot of overreaction."
For example, in Week 7, Hill said the Pittsburgh Maulers opened as 4.5-point home underdogs to the Philadelphia Stars. By the time the line closed prior to Saturday’s game, the Maulers had moved all the way to 2.5-/3-point favorites. That’s a 7.5-/8-point swing.
The final result: Philadelphia 37, Pittsburgh 31.
"It doesn’t make a lot of sense. If you liked Pittsburgh -2.5, why didn’t you like +4.5 or +3.5? People are just chasing the line movement," Hill said. "Pittsburgh lost by a touchdown and didn’t even cover the opening number (+4.5). The line move is not indicative of what actually happens."
Which means perhaps the best advice when betting USFL odds is to …
USFL's Best Mic'd Up Moments from Week 7
Go Against the Grain
Over the past three weekends of USFL play, teams that closed as underdogs have gone 10-2 straight up (SU). Drumheller pointed out an interesting trend in the eight games that took place over Weeks 6 and 7, right in line with what Hill cited.
"If you went against the line movement, open to close, you went 5-2-1 ATS," Drumheller said of a mark that any sports bettor would count as a solid week. "If you went against the market, against the money, you won."
In fact, over the past three weeks, Drumheller said if you bet against the market line movement, you’d have gone a healthy 8-2-2 ATS.
Said Hill: "My thinking is the books aren’t getting a lot of bets. So the few bets they do take are swinging the line significantly, and probably too much so."
And to reiterate, USFL ‘dogs have barked loudly lately. That’s one reason why Drumheller likes Philly on Saturday against the league-leading Birmingham Stallions (5-2 SU).
"I bet Philadelphia +6," Drumheller said. "Birmingham looks good, but Philadelphia has won three straight. Birmingham allows the most yards in the league. If I can get 6 points in a league where dogs are running hot, I’m gonna jump on that."
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Variance is the Only Constant
With all the above duly noted, it’s still fair to point out — much like the stock market — past performance is no guarantee of future results. Remember, this is sports betting. So your mileage may vary, particularly with a pro football league playing spring games in four hub cities: Detroit, Memphis, Canton and Birmingham.
"Basically, there is no home-field advantage. There are four hubs and home field is really negligible," Hill said while alluding to the theory that in the NFL, home field is generally seen as being worth 2.5-3 points. "In this league, it’s really not worth anything."
Drumheller noted that almost every team has been streaky at times, with positive or negative runs, and sometimes both:
- As noted above, Philly is on a three-game win streak
- Michigan had a four-game losing skid
- New Jersey won three straight and lost three straight
- Memphis started 0-3 but rebounded with four straight wins
- New Orleans opened 4-0 and is now 4-3
"It speaks to the variance and parity of the league," Drumheller said.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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