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With the 2015 fantasy football season coming to an end, let's look at five of the biggest takeaways from this season that can help you out heading into next year.
Identify the backs who can catch
The "workhorse" running back is just about dead. Heading into Week 17, only 12 running backs totaled more than 200 carries on the year. Only Adrian Peterson has over 300 carries.
So what does that mean for fantasy? You better make sure your running back is piling up stats elsewhere.
Heading into Week 17, do you know who the third highest scoring running back is? It's San Diego RB Danny Woodhead, who was going at the tail-end of drafts or sometimes completely undrafted. Woodhead only received 92 carries this year, but his 73-705-6 receiving line made him an unlikely fantasy star...again.
It's not just Woodhead. Theo Riddick, who entered the season as a complete afterthought as the presumed third-string running back, is entering Week 17 as the 18th highest scoring RB â so a legitimate RB2. He has more points right now than Jonathan Stewart (albeit in two more games), Jeremy Hill and a handful of other backs. Devonta Freeman is outscoring the next closest running back by 50+ points, in large part because of his 71 receptions.
If you play in a PPR league, you just can't afford to spend a high pick on a running back who comes off the field in passing situations or simply isn't used as a safety valve. Guys like Duke Johnson Jr. (57 catches) are going to go way too late again next year. Take advantage.
Don't be afraid to go receiver heavy early
One running back (Devonta Freeman) has totaled over 300 fantasy points this year. Five receivers have hit that mark, and Allen Robinson is a good bet to join them after Week 17.
While those numbers will lead some to make the cry for positional scarcity and snatch up running backs early and often, injuries are much, much more common to running backs. Picking a star receiver is the much more risk-averse play, and owners of guys like C.J. Anderson can attest to how difficult it is to thrive after blowing your first round choice.
Even the WR "busts" of the first few rounds like Demaryius Thomas and Calvin Johnson have more points than every running back except for Adrian Peterson and Devonta Freeman.
Avoiding running backs early on and taking chances later in the draft on backs with receiving ability is making more and more sense every year.
Don't draft defenses early
Although streaming was difficult early on, it's still hard to recommend drafting a defense early in drafts. You'll see Denver's defense go as early as the 8th round in some drafts. Don't fall into that trap.
None of the top-5 defenses in 2014 repeated as top-5 defenses in 2015. There's just a lot of variance in this area, so let others make the crazy reaches. There's a good chance a talented unit can still fall to you.
There's also this: entering Week 17, the difference between the 6th best fantasy defense (Cincinnati) and the 14th best defense (Washington) was only 21 points. Don't get caught up in draft day runs if defenses start flying off the board early. Use that as an opportunity to slip in your favorite high upside sleepers.
Wait on quarterbacks
Cam Newton, Blake Bortles, Carson Palmer. All three quarterbacks were being selected as high-end QB2 types, usually lasting until the back half of your draft.
All three enter Week 17 as top-5 scoring QBs.
Is that going to happen every year? No. But the difference between taking a QB in the second round and the eighth round is a massive one, although at the end of the year the numbers usually look pretty similar. Eli Manning has thirteen less points than Aaron Rodgers. Andy Dalton was a top-5 QB all year until he got hurt. You get the point.
Wait on your quarterbacks, take two players in offenses that have some talent on the outside or insane rushing ability, and use those early picks on more bankable skill position players. It's a passing league, and the chances you can pick up a QB1 on the waiver wire (Derek Carr, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Kirk Cousins are all in the top-12 of points) are very high, even if you miss on draft day.
This year was extreme in that regard, but it's a good lesson nonetheless.
Keep shuffling the end of your bench
Knile Davis. Jacquizz Rodgers. Nelson Agholor. Damien Williams. If you're like me, you drafted and held on to a few of these guys for a little too long. When you're dealing with handcuffs and end of the bench options, be liberal with how you shuffle through free agents.
Pay attention to snap counts. Charcandrick West was already being used ahead of Knile Davis before Jamaal Charles's injury, but Davis was owned at a much higher percentage. That small swap could have been the difference between winning a league and not even making the playoffs.
It's hard to cut bait on guys early on. You drafted them for a reason. But if they aren't on the field and receiving snaps, it's hard to justify hanging on. For every handcuff that eventually paid off (Buck Allen, for example) there were a ton of free agents who could have helped more in the meantime.
Identify your high upside free agents. You should probably have a waiver wire addition close to every single week...and we'll be here once again to help you do it.
