College Football

College football odds: CFP title game lines, picks for Georgia-TCU

Updated Mar. 15, 2023 11:02 a.m. ET

Can the No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs (14-0) become the first repeat college football national champions in a decade?

Or will the No. 3 TCU Horned Frogs (13-1) complete their Cinderella season by winning it all?

The Bulldogs and Horned Frogs will play for the national championship on Monday at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California.

As for the odds, Georgia opened as a 13.5-point favorite at FOX Bet, with the Over/Under (total) opening at 61.5.

Per FOX Sports Research, this is the largest point spread for any College Football Playoff or BCS Championship Game. The previous high came when Miami was a 12-point favorite over Ohio State in the 2002 BCS Championship Game.

Here's a look at the CFP title game with picks and insights from our betting experts.

No. 3 TCU vs. No. 1 Georgia (7:30 p.m. ET Monday, SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California, ESPN)

Point spread: Georgia -13.5 (Georgia favored to win by more than 13.5 points, otherwise TCU covers)
Moneyline: Georgia -500 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $12 total); TCU +300 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $40 total)
Total scoring Over/Under: 61.5 points scored by both teams combined

The defending champions advanced to the CFP title game by edging the No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes 42-41 in a thriller at the Peach Bowl in Atlanta on Dec. 31.

The Bulldogs held on to win when the Buckeyes missed a potential game-winning 50-yard field goal with three seconds to go.

Earlier, the Horned Frogs advanced by outscoring the No. 2 Michigan Wolverines 51-45 in the Fiesta Bowl in Glendale, Arizona.

Can Georgia be back-to-back national champions?

Joel Klatt discusses the Georgia Bulldogs taking on the TCU Horned Frogs on Monday

Pick via FOX Sports NFL Analyst Geoff Schwartz:

Stars matter, and Georgia has far more of them. Football can often be complicated, or at least we make it feel that way. However, college football can be simple in that regard. The team with the better players usually ends up winning. I know, not rocket science. In this case, Georgia has the better players.

The Bulldogs are better on both the offensive and defensive lines. Georgia has better skill players and better talent on the back end of the defense.

TCU has a more dynamic quarterback in that Max Duggan can move the ball with his legs, but Stetson Bennett throws a better ball. Now, having better players does not help with luck or even guarantee you will win a game without effort and making mistakes. But, if Georgia plays their best, and TCU plays its best, Georgia has advantages all over the field.

PICK: Georgia (-12.5 at FOX Bet at time of pick) to win by more than 12.5 points

Picks via Gambling Analyst Sam Panayotovich:

I’m shorting the Frogs offense in the first quarter.

It’s almost impossible to run the ball on Georgia — the Bulldogs allow just 77 rushing yards per game — and I expect TCU quarterback Max Duggan to struggle early against disguised coverages from Kirby Smart’s "spread" defense.

Sure, Ohio State scored a first-quarter touchdown in the national semifinal, but the Buckeyes had the potential No. 1 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft at quarterback and three wide receivers that will also play on Sundays. TCU’s attack is not that loaded with that type of talent, and it will take time for the Horned Frogs to reach the end zone.

A goose egg or field goal will do the trick.

PICK: TCU 1Q Under 5.5 points (-105 at FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $19.52 total)

Big-time players make big-time plays in big-time games.

Brock Bowers is Georgia’s leading touchdown catcher this season, with six scores in 14 games. That is not a high number by any means, but I’ll take advantage of his relatively low-scoring production and drink a little juice on the national stage.

The 6-foot-4 tight end from Napa, California, is outstanding in the open field, and boy, does he have a knack for finding creases in the defense. And assuming Georgia establishes the run early and often, play-action opportunities for quarterback Stetson Bennett will be plentiful.

Other sportsbooks have Bowers at -125 and -150 to score an anytime touchdown, so let’s take advantage of this generous price at FOX Bet.

PICK: Brock Bowers anytime TD (-105 at FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $19.52 total)

Let me start by admitting that I bet against TCU in last week's CFP semifinal versus Michigan.

I still can’t believe Jim Harbaugh called the "Philly Special" at the TCU 2-yard line after Michigan bullied its way down the field on the opening drive. That decision unraveled the Wolverines’ early game plan, and they never really recovered until the second half.

Obviously, the Frogs deserve all the credit in the world – and then some – for reaching this point. But the buck stops here.

Georgia’s combination of skill and speed will be too much for TCU to handle for four quarters. This is an experienced bunch that is loaded with NFL talent all over the field. Also, let us not underestimate how TCU had basically everything go its way against Michigan, and the Frogs barely escaped.

This game gives me serious 2013 national title game vibes when Alabama shut out Notre Dame in the first half en route to a 42-14 stomping.

PICK: Georgia (-12.5 at FOX Bet at time of pick) to win by more than 12.5 points

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Jason McIntyre:

2-Team, 6-Point Teaser at FOX Bet

You never want to get too cute, but the best bet for the championship game is a teaser. Move Georgia from 13 down to 7, and the total up from 63 to 69. Everyone wants to bet on what they saw last week, which was close games and orgasmic offense.

TCU scored on two pick-sixes, and Michigan stumbled twice inside the 5-yard line. Meanwhile, Georgia's defense was torched by the potential No. 1 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft (C.J. Stroud) and the best receiver in the sport (Marvin Harrison).

TCU has a good QB (Duggan) and WR (Johnston), but Georgia's defense should be ready to slow them down after last week's letdown. Look for the Bulldogs to come out with some bark Monday.

This feels like a lower-scoring game, with Georgia ultimately winning 37-17.

PICK: TEASER (Georgia -7 and Under 69)

Are you ready to wager on the CFP title game? If so, head over to FOX Bet for all your wagers.

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