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Wisconsin Badgers predictions: Game 11 vs. Michigan
Every game is a big one for Wisconsin, but this week the Badgers are playing in the best game of the Week 12 college schedule.
We don't just mean because UW needs to win to remain in the college football playoff hunt. It is literally the best matchup (on paper) in a week which sees two top-four playoff ranked teams playing FCS teams and another going up against Kansas, which is 0-9 vs. FBS teams with every loss by double digits. The other top team, Miami, host unranked Virginia, which does have a winning record.
Both Wisconsin and Michigan enter Saturday in the top 25 of both the college football playoff rankings and the Associated Press poll.
As we write this, the Badgers are a 7.5 favorite to win -- their lowest point spread of the season. The Wolverines have been an underdog just once, also 7.5 points when they played at Penn State, a game in which they were routed.
Murky weather and two good defenses have many, including Vegas, seeing this as a low-scoring game (the over/under is 40.5 points).
Can Wisconsin remain unbeaten? Or will Michigan, which hasn't beaten a ranked team on the road, score an upset?
Most prognosticators are going with the favorite. But certainly not all. However, after last week's big win over Iowa, UW fans seem a tad more confident this week -- but just a tad.
Here are this week's picks from around the web and Twitter:
The Associated Press' Ralph D. Russo: Michigan 24, Wisconsin 20 (his "upset special").
Tom Dienhart of BTN.com: Wisconsin 17, Michigan 14.
Pete Fiutak of Collegefootballnews.com: Wisconsin 30, Michigan 17. "Iowa was the more dangerous matchup for the Badgers. Michigan’s offense isn’t going to get moving well enough, the charged up Camp Randall and early start will get the Wisconsin offense rolling for a few early drives, and this will be the defining moment that makes it look like this really could be a true national championship contender. And then Wisconsin will stall. Michigan will do what Iowa inexplicably didn’t and test the Badger corners deep to get back in the game and make it scary. And then, when it absolutely has to, the Wisconsin O line will kick it into gear for one, long touchdown drive, and the D line will take care of the rest with game-sealing sacks."
Nick Baumgardner of the Detroit Free Press: Wisconsin 17, Michigan 10. "Michigan can win this football game. The Wolverines are younger, but they're also more battle tested through 10 weeks, believe it or not. Still, Michigan is going to have to put together the type of complete effort that we have not seen this season. All three phases have to be at their best for 60 minutes without exception. Based on the evidence we have, it's tough to pick the Wolverines here. They'll have to prove me wrong."
Josh Slagter of MLive.com: Wisconsin 17, Michigan 16. Also, this week we get a score from MLive's Aaron McMann: Wisconsin 17, Michigan 10.
Steve Lassan of Athlon Sports: Wisconsin 24, Michigan 20. "Considering both teams are going to win their share of battles in the trenches and neither has a prolific passing game, a tight matchup that goes deep into the fourth quarter should be expected. If Michigan can generate a couple of takeaways and allow Peters to keep the Wisconsin defense off balance with some early throws, Harbaugh’s team has a good shot at the upset. However, with this game in Madison and more weapons in the passing game for Chryst, the Badgers find a way to win in the fourth quarter."
Athon Sports' Mitch Light: Wisconsin 24, Michigan 14.
Bill Bender of The Sporting News: Wisconsin 24, Michigan 20.
Bob Wojnowski of the Detroit News: Wisconsin 20, Michigan 16. "By my math, Michigan State has posted approximately 37 signature road victories since Michigan’s last one. If that’s to change under Harbaugh, this is a prime place to start. The Wolverines are trying to look like the bulky Badgers, which is sort of gross, but necessary. Using the pound-for-pound formula, Michigan is fattening up and hoping to get better, and preparing for the wurst."
Also from the Detroit News: Angelique Chengelis - Wisconsin 17-13; Matt Charboneau - Wisconsin 28-24; John Niyo - Michigan 20-17.
Ryan Dunleavy of NJ Advance Media: Michigan 17, Wisconsin 14.
Chad Leistikow of the Des Moines Register: Wisconsin 24, Michgan 13. "The Badgers, who actually opened as a 10-point favorite, couldn't have been more dominant than they were vs. Iowa last week. Now comes a stiffer test, because the Wolverines have an elite defense to counter Wisconsin's and won't hesitate to be ultra-aggressive. Points will be at a premium. But I think the game Michigan really wants is next week, against Ohio State."
Steve Greenberg of the Chicago Sun-Times: Wisconsin 20, Michigan 16.
The Oklahoman's Berry Tramel: Wisconsin 24, Michigan 17.
Jeff Seidel of the Detroit Free Press: Michigan 16, Wisconsin 14. "Wisconsin’s edge is turnover margin. But seven of Michigan’s turnovers have been interceptions thrown by quarterbacks who aren’t playing for the Wolverines right now. Meanwhile, Wisconsin quarterback Alex Hornibrook has thrown 12 picks. Michigan is going to stop Wisconsin on third down. Hornibrook is going to throw an interception that dooms Wisconsin. Peters will make a couple of plays downfield. Quinn Nordin will break out of his funk and make a couple of field goals. And as long as Peters doesn’t throw an interception, Michigan will win this game."
Daniel Gallen of pennlive.com picks Wisconsin.
Jesse Temple of Land of 10: Wisconsin 20, Michigan 14.
From the Michigan Land of 10 site: Rachel Lenzi - Wisconsin 20, Michigan 14; Kevin Goheen - Michigan 20, Wisconsin 17.
Teddy Greenstein of the Chicago Tribune: Wisconsin 23, Michigan 19.
Zac Al-Khateeb of The Sporting News: Wisconsin 21, Michigan 20.
Kerry Miller of Bleacher Report: Wisconsin 28, Michigan 24.
Tom Fornelli of CBSSports.com: Wisconsin 24, Michigan 14.
The Sagarin Ratings predict Wisconsin 24.62, Michigan 15.68.
Anthony Broome of Maize and Blue: Wisconsin 17, Michigan 14.
CBSSports.com's Jerry Palm thinks Wisconsin will win and also a 7.5-point spread.
Bill Connelly of SB Nation: His S&P+ projection has it Wisconsin 28, Michigan 18.
John Longshore of the Montgomery Advertiser: Wisconsin 34, Michigan 20.
PickCenter: TeamRankings has a projected score of 25.0-15.8 while NumberFire's average is 25.6-16.5, both with Wisconsin winning. The latter also gives the Badgers a 50.3 percent likelihood over covering a 7.5-point spread.
Six of the seven analysts at SI.com think Wisconsin will emerge victorious with Eric Single picking Michigan. Bruce Feldman writes: "This is the Badgers’ first big test. The Wolverines’ D is pretty nasty—it’ll be much tougher for freshman running back Jonathan Taylor to get rolling, and quarterback Alex Hornibrook can’t afford the two pick-sixes he threw last week against Iowa—but I’m still going with Wisconsin, who was at its best defensively last week in snuffing out the Hawkeyes’ offense. I expect more of the same this weekend in Madison; Paul Chryst and the Badgers have had this game circled for a long time in light of the nationwide skepticism about their merits as a playoff contender."
All three Athlon Sports analysts pick Wisconsin to win.
All seven of CBSSports.com analysts think Wisconsin will win and just one thinks the Badgers won't cover a 7.5-point spread.
Five of six analysts at USAToday.com are going with Wisconsin. Dan Wolken is the lone voice picking Michigan.
All three ESPN.com Big Ten contributors pick Wisconsin. The scores: Mitch Sherman 21-13, Dan Murphy 17-14, Tom Van Haaren 21-13.
Four of the five analysts at the Los Angeles Times pick Wisconsin (note: the same person who picked Iowa last week is picking Michigan this week). The scores: Ben Bolch, Wisconsin 28-24; Zach Helfand, Wisconsin 17-13; Mike Hiserman, Wisconsin 23-17; Angel Rodriguez, Michigan 24-14; David Wharton, Wisconsin 27-20.
All three analysts at FootballScoop.com pick Wisconsin to win.
The two Battle Creek Enquirer writers are split -- Bill Broderick has it Michigan 21-14 while Nick Buckley is calling Wisconsin 27-17.
At Oregonlive.com, 2 out of 3 analysts pick the Badgers to win.
All nine analysts for the Dallas Morning News have the Badgers winning, but just two think Wisconsin will cover a 10-point spread.
Five of six analysts at the Tampa Bay Times pick Wisconsin.
