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The fantasy football trade market can be volatile, but we're here to help. Here's a look at some of the most intriguing buy or sell debates heading into Week 5 of the NFL season.
QB: Russell Wilson, SEA: BUY
To say that Wilson has been underwhelming thus far is an understatement. Many had him pegged as the third best fantasy QB during draft season, but he's currently 10th in fantasy points per game. What gives?
Wilson has been limited, perhaps predictably, by his coaching staff in Seattle. Despite being incredibly efficient, the Seahawks just aren't airing it out enough for Russ to rack up 300-yard performances. In fact, Wilson has 30 or less attempts in his last three games.
So why are we buying on Wilson? Because the rushing stats provide a high floor, and his owners may be ready to ditch him for a QB with more boom or bust potential.
Remember, Wilson ran for six scores last year and hasn't found the endzone with his feet yet, but he's scrambling at a nearly identical rate as he was last season. Those points are massive, and one would think they are on the way.
DFS Special
QB: Jay Cutler, CHI: BUY
While Cutler remains on the backend of the QB1 radar in season-long leagues, he's a killer play in DFS this week. Priced at just $5300 on Draft Kings, Cutler has a juicy matchup against a banged up Chiefs pass defense that has allowed more fantasy points to quarterbacks than any other team so far this season. With Alshon Jeffery possibly returning this week, Cutler could have his full arsenal on hand, and a bad Bears defense should insure garbage time stats, if it comes to that.
RB: Devonta Freeman, ATL: SELL
Freeman is setting the fantasy world on fire right now, as he has six rushing touchdowns over the last two weeks. That's great, but it's also unsustainable. While Freeman has looked impressive since Tevin Coleman went down with a rib injury, he's still a 3.8 YPC guy both this season and on his career. It's tough to ignore the bigger sample size.
That's not to say Freeman can't return RB1 value. Coleman shouldn't be much of a threat to his workload once he returns from injury, and Freeman's ability in the passing game should make PPR players much more hesitant to sell high than standard league players.
This week is a good test to see just how real Freeman's play really is. Washington has a very strong front seven that has allowed the least fantasy points to opposing running backs of any team this season. If you want to sell high on Freeman, now is the time to do it.
DFS Special
RB: Justin Forsett, BAL: BUY
Forsett hasn't been able to put all the pieces together this season. In the first few weeks, his value came almost solely through his receiving ability. Then Forsett torched the Steelers for 150 yards on the ground...with zero receptions. Here's guessing this is the week where it all comes together, as the Browns are always bad against the run (27th in fantasy points allowed to RB).
Forsett is averaging 19.5 touches a game right now, so the workload is there. He's a strong value at $5800 on Draft Kings, and a great buy-low target in season-long leagues. He's not going to be held out of the endzone forever.
WR: Vincent Jackson, TB: SELL
Jackson is coming off a monster week (10-147-1) that might have helped you win your matchup. As hard as it is to do, though, you should be looking to sell him at his highest point.
Before the Week 4 breakout, Jackson had only logged 9 catches in three games, despite Mike Evans being either out or limited. With Evans now back, Jackson could very well see less targets, particularly in the red zone. The Carolina game was unique in that Jameis Winston had to throw away from CB Josh Norman, who is one of the best corners in football right now. Most of the time, Evans is going to be the guy.
You also have to account for the occasional stinker from Winston, which will make Jackson even more boom or bust than he naturally is. If you can find someone in your league who values Jackson more like a WR2 than a Flex option, send him off. Some really bad fantasy outings are on the horizon.
DFS Special
WR: Willie Snead, NO: BUY
I believe in Willie Snead! The Saints wide receiver was completely off the draft radar, but he's all but supplanted Brandon Coleman and Marques Colston as the preferred second target in a Saints offense that will have to throw a bunch.
Last week, Snead earned more snaps (46) than Colston (43) and Coleman (19), and yet his price is still the minimum on Draft Kings. Snead is reminiscent of Lance Moore, as he's a zippy guy who can put up surprising fantasy production with underneath routes. Drew Brees seems to like and trust him, and Philadelphia is 29th in fantasy points allowed to WR this year. He's a punt play, but he should easily return value at his low price.
TE: Jordan Reed, WAS: SELL
This one is pretty simple. Reed has had at least four concussions in the NFL, and his last one in 2013 caused him to miss the final six games of the season. He's also dealing with an MCL sprain and ankle injury, and that's kind of the story of Reed's career. Is he great when he's on the field? Yes. Can he stay on the field? No.
Right now, there's no timetable set for his return. If you can pawn him off an owner who thinks it's more of a day-to-day thing, go for it. There are just warning signs everywhere with Reed, and it's recommended you anticipate the bad news and deal him off and snag his highly athletic backup, Derek Carrier. He's a freak, and the Redskins traded a 5th rounder to get him.
DFS Special
TE: Jared Cook, STL: BUY
He's burned me more times than I can count, but I keep coming back for more. Cook is priced at just $3000 on Draft Kings, which is awfully low in a game where the Rams should be forced to play catch up against the Packers. Cook is always among the Rams' target leaders every week, and perhaps the threat of a real running game with Todd Gurley will open up some playaction seam routes for Cook.
It's risky, as it always is with a middling talent on a bad team, but game flow should lead to some solid stats for Cook.
