High school football playoff bubble crowded

Published Oct. 25, 2012 4:34 p.m. ET

foxsports

By Mark Heller
East Valley Tribune

Here comes the bubble talk. With the final week of the high school football regular season upon us, it's time for a look at the teams on the confusing verge of getting in or falling out of the state playoffs.

Despite Highland’s win over Mesa, other schools’ wins actually dropped the Hawks down to No. 14 in Division I. Highland (6-3) needs to beat Red Mountain this week, because Yuma Cibola (Section I) is going to get an automatic bid and knock out the lowest seed among the top 16 that isn’t in Section I.

A win by Chaparral (No. 8) over Saguaro on Thursday night would guarantee the Firebirds at least one home game to start the Division II playoffs, quite an achievement considering where Chaparral was after Week 4 of the regular season (1-3 with questions about quarterback play and injuries galore).

Speaking of turnarounds, Notre Dame (No. 15) is a win over Horizon away from nearly repeating its crazy 2011 season and getting back into the playoffs. A loss by Horizon (No. 12) could put the Huskies in real bubble trouble.

Also, this new AIA/MaxPreps.com seeding formula has mostly made sense to this point, but someone needs to explain why No. 8 Saguaro (7-2 with a schedule strength of 3.3618) is behind No. 7 Glendale Cactus (7-2 with a strength of 1.4944), a team Saguaro beat earlier this season.

Friday night’s matchup between Williams Field (No. 4 at 9-0 in Division III) and Queen Creek (No. 3 at 9-0 in Division III) should help jostle the D-III logjam, though it’s puzzling why Williams Field is behind Tucson Sabino and Queen Creek when all three teams are 9-0 and the Black Hawks have a slightly better strength rating than either of the other two.

Despite a tremendous turnaround, Tempe (No. 17 at 5-4 in Division III) must win against a tough Maricopa team Friday night to get in. Similarly, Paradise Valley (No. 15 at 6-3) has to beat Fountain Hills and San Tan Foothills (No. 16 in Division V) has to beat Yuma Catholic (No. 4).

That’s as much forecasting as we’re capable of doing these days. It’s not so easy when nobody knows the algorithm.