Mike Foltynewicz

Bobby Cox on Braves' young pitching: 'It takes time'

Published Dec. 7, 2015 1:58 p.m. ET

Zach Dillard

NASHVILLE — The Atlanta Braves are all-in on young pitching. The franchise's no-holds-barred rebuilding process hinges on the development of the 10-plus high-end pitching prospects it's acquired in the John Hart-John Coppollela regime. The Year 1 results were, perhaps predictably, lackluster at best.

Braves rookie starters pitched 358 innings at replacement-level production last season. The five first-year arms — highly regarded prospects Matt Wisler, Mike Foltynewicz and Manny Banuelos and overlooked organization arms Ryan Weber and Williams Perez — posted a combined 4.98 ERA, which served as the undercurrent for arguably the youngest rotation in baseball history.

Wisler struggled until a late-season surge. Foltynewicz could not figure out his command and bounced between Triple-A Gwinnett and Atlanta. Banuelos, the lone southpaw, flashed potential, but ran into more health issues. On the surface, it was a largely forgettable collective debut.

In the past decade alone, rookie pitchers have exploded onto the scene: 35 pitchers have posted a 3.0 WAR or better within their rookie eligibility window since 2006, including the likes of Jose Fernandez (Marlins), Yu Darvish (Rangers) and former Braves Brandon Beachy and Craig Kimbrel. The top rookies for the 2015 Braves, in terms of WAR? Wisler and Weber, at 0.2 WAR apiece.

Bobby Cox has seen this show before, though.

The Hall of Fame manager and senior Braves consultant is in Nashville for MLB's annual Winter Meetings, and he's carrying a message of optimism and patience around the Gaylord Opryland Resort.

"They were getting their feet wet last year. I thought that was the right thing to do. Get 'em up here," said Cox, who won 2,149 games, five pennants and the 1995 World Series as the Braves manager. "It takes time. (Greg) Maddux didn't do it in one year. (Tom) Glavine didn't do it one year, neither did (John) Smoltz.

"(AL Cy Young winner Dallas) Kuechel with Houston was just so-so all through the minors and all of a sudden, boom, top pitcher in baseball."

Cox's point has been rehashed again and again over the past year. Players, especially pitchers, develop at different speeds. Glavine was solid albeit unspectacular in his first four seasons, posting an 4.00 ERA or higher three times — although his peripheral numbers were much better — before truly hitting his Hall of Fame stride in 1991. The Detroit Tigers gave up Smoltz for a reliever and he posted a 5.48 ERA in his first season. Cox witnessed those sputtering beginnings firsthand.

Even outside of Atlanta, it can take time.

The reigning Cy Young winners in both leagues, Keuchel and Chicago's Jake Arrieta, were slow career starters. Keuchel, Cox's example, posted substandard minor-league numbers and in 2012 he posted baseball's fourth-worst fielding-independent pitching score (5.74) among pitchers with at least 80 innings pitched. He's doing much, much better now. Arrieta might be a longer shot. After rising quickly through the Orioles minor-league system, he couldn't figure things out in Baltimore despite receiving four seasons' worth of opportunity. The Orioles cut bait and he figured things out with the Cubs.

The Braves may not have a future Cy Young winner or Hall of Famer among its overflowing depth of pitching. They may have guessed wrong in trades. There may very well be injuries, developmental plateaus and other obstacles ahead.

Still, take rookie numbers with quite a few grains of salt.

"Number one, I love Wisler. I love him. I think he's going to be a big-time winner. I think he's going to be pinpoint with good stuff around the plate. Great athlete, smart kid," Cox said. "He's been pushed a little bit probably — like we wanted to do, like we did with him.

"Foltynewicz, if he gets over that problem with the rib and all that, he's got a chance to be dynamite. Those are our two most advanced guys right now I guess, but we've got a wealth of guys just like them via trades and the draft. They all, potentially, can be No. 1s, No. 2s. That's saying something."

If Shelby Miller and Julio Teheran stay put — Cox mentioned the team was listening to all offers, but that there was little to no talks concerning either starter in the team's Monday morning meeting — this trial-by-fire approach could be applied liberally to the final three rotation spots next season. Though the team curiously signed veteran righty Bud Norris with rotation expectations, non-tendering Mike Minor opens slots for Wisler, Foltynewicz, Banuelos or up-and-coming prospects like Sean Newcomb and Tyrell Jenkins.

Cox subscribed to trial-by-fire development three decades ago, and seems to be onboard that train once again.

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