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A great red zone offense can carry a team, but a bad one can bury them these five units dread that area of the field.
The red zone is where games are won and lost. Defenses that allow touchdowns in the red zone end up missing the postseason. Offenses that settle for field goals in the red zone often cost their team the chance for a championship.
In 2016, it’s not a guarantee or predictor of postseason probability if a unit has a high touchdown percentage in the red zone. For example, teams like the Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, and Indianapolis Colts have done an outstanding job of scoring touchdowns inside the 20.
Entering Week 15, New Orleans has averaged four red zone scoring attempts per game, which is second in the NFL. Drew Brees is second in red zone touchdowns thrown, red zone completion percentage, and first in red zone touchdowns tossed. Andrew Luck is tied for third in red zone passing touchdowns and fifth in red zone completion percentage. Jonathan Stewart is tied for fifth most red zone rushing touchdowns. Yet, the Panthers, Saints, and Colts won’t advance beyond the regular season.
There are also a handful of playoff contenders who’ve had problems punching the ball into the end zone from inside the opponent’s 20. The Baltimore Ravens, Detroit Lions, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Miami Dolphins, Seattle Seahawks, and Kansas City Chiefs have all struggled with red zone touchdowns, but have relied on their aggressive defenses to keep the score in check.
You might think the bottom five teams in red zone touchdown percentage wouldn’t be noteworthy, but you’d be wrong. Let’s take a look.
Dec 11, 2016; Nashville, TN, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Trevor Siemian (13) throws the ball during the first half against the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
5. Denver Broncos
2016 Red Zone Touchdown Percentage: 46.34
2015 Red Zone Touchdown Percentage: 46.15
Denver has averaged 3.2 red zone scoring attempts per game, which is tied for 10th in the league, but has only come away with 1.48 red zone touchdowns per contest. The offense is 20th in scoring percentage and 17th in turnover percentage.
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The past three games against the Chiefs, Jaguars, and Titans have been especially brutal for the Broncos as their average red zone touchdown percentage was 37.5 percent over that span. Even crazier is their red zone touchdown percentage is worse at home than on the road.
Part of the problem has been the instability at the running back position. C.J. Anderson began the season as the team’s starter but was placed on injured reserve with a torn meniscus in his knee. Second-year man Kapri Bibbs provided a spark but suffered an ankle injury that also landed him on IR. Denver signed Justin Forsett and he promptly fumbled his first carry in a Broncos uniform. Denver’s 27th in rushing yards per game, averaging 93.8, and 28th in rushing yards per attempt.
Trevor Siemian has lost three of his last four starts and probably should’ve lost against the Saints had it not been for Denver’s special teams unit blocking and returning New Orleans’ extra point attempt for the win. It hasn’t helped that Siemian has been limited by a foot injury that has him listed as questionable for the Week 15 game against New England.
Broncos quarterbacks get sacked on 7.3 percent of attempts, which is tied for 5th worst in the league. Siemian has also only completed around 43 percent of passes inside the 20 and around 39 percent of attempts inside the 10. Siemian is 27th among qualifying quarterbacks in touchdowns per attempt inside the 20 and 28th inside the 10..
Heading into Week 15, the Broncos have a 37 percent chance of securing one of the two Wild Card spots and a 63 percent probability of not making the playoffs. With the Patriots, Chiefs, and Raiders remaining, they’ll have to up their red zone efficiency.
A win against the equally red zone deficient Chiefs most likely won’t be enough to clinch a berth. They’ll need to win two to get the sixth seed. Meanwhile, the Pats and Raiders are both in the top 10 in red zone touchdown percentage. Without a tight end or dependable running back, teams have shifted coverage to Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. Gary Kubiak and crew will have to get creative.
Sep 18, 2016; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson (28) poses for a photo against the Green Bay Packers at U.S. Bank Stadium. The Vikings defeated the Packers 17-14. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports
4. Minnesota Vikings
2016 Red Zone Touchdown Percentage: 45.00
2015 Red Zone Touchdown Percentage: 47.73
Minnesota’s averaged 3.1 red zone scoring attempts per game, which is tied for 11th in the league, and has scored on less than 1.4 of those trips. The past three games against the Lions, Cowboys, and Jaguars have seen the Vikes scoring with even less frequency inside the 20. Over that span, Minnesota has the second worst red zone touchdown percentage.
Unlike the Broncos, the Vikings have done exceptionally well scoring touchdowns in the red zone at home, but they’re last in the league on the road. Chalk it up to the loss of Teddy Bridgewater, Adrian Peterson, Matt Kalil, Andre Smith, Jake Long, and Mike Harris.
Going into Week 15, Minnesota has a little more than 5 percent chance of winning the NFC North and a 12 percent shot of securing a Wild Card berth. Now, they’ll need to win against the Colts, Packers, and Bears to advance to the postseason.
Only 31.7 percent of Minnesota’s offensive drives have ended in a score, which places them 24th overall. Some blamed Blair Walsh for the low scoring percentage because he went 12 of 16 on field goals and 15 of 19 on extra points before being released. Is that unit turning the ball over too much? No. Only five percent of drives end in a giveaway. So, what gives?
Sam Bradford has the highest completion percentage inside the 20, but only has seven passing touchdowns on 21 attempts inside the 10. That rate places Sam 23rd among qualifying quarterbacks. Bradford’s 23rd among qualifying quarterbacks in touchdowns per attempt inside the 20.
Adam Thielen has been a breakout performer for the Vikings offense and Kyle Rudolph is among the league leaders in red zone touchdown catches. The big news is that Adrian Peterson could be in the mix and that means Minnesota would find the end zone more when deeper in enemy territory.
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3. Washington Redskins
2016 Red Zone Touchdown Percentage: 44.90
2015 Red Zone Touchdown Percentage: 58.49
Washington averages 3.8 red zone scoring attempts per game, which is tied for fourth most in the NFL. The ‘Skins have been better at scoring touchdowns in the red zone at home (still ranked 22nd), but they’re second to last on the road. They’ll only have one more away game, but it’ll be against a sturdy Bears defense. They have a 50/50 shot of making the playoffs through a Wild Card berth and will need to win all three remaining games to guarantee a clinch.
Jay Gruden’s squad is second in the league in scoring percentage behind the Falcons and only around 10 percent of offensive drives end in a turnover, which is slightly above the league average. The Hogs put points on the board, but more times than not it’s three instead of six. No team has attempted more field goals than Washington.
The Skins have been a big play offense all season as DeSean Jackson and Jamison Crowder have either connected on deep balls or taken short throws to the house. Jordan Reed leads the team with four red zone touchdowns while Crowder has three. Reed’s return from injury should bolster red zone touchdowns.
Cousins has only been sacked on 3.5 percent of attempts, which is third best in the league. The run offense is in the top seven in yards per carry and averages almost 110 yards per game with Robert Kelley supplanting Matt Jones. Their 25.4 points per game is eight highest in the league.
So, what’s the problem? Kirk Cousins is 24th among qualifying quarterbacks in touchdowns per pass attempt inside the 20 (17.65 percent) and 29th inside the 10 (20.59 percent).
Nov 27, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Texans quarterback Brock Osweiler (17) calls an audible against the San Diego Chargers at NRG Stadium. San Diego Chargers won 21 to 13. Mandatory Credit: Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports
2. Houston Texans
2016 Red Zone Touchdown Percentage: 41.67
2015 Red Zone Touchdown Percentage: 56.52
The Texans average 2.8 red zone scoring opportunities per game, which is tied for fourth worst. Before jumping to any conclusions, the Steelers are one of the teams tied in that category. Yet, unlike Pittsburgh, Houston’s only scoring on 1.17 of those ventures.
The past three games against the Chargers, Packers, and Colts have seen the Texans tied for the fourth worst red zone touchdown percentage in the league. Their percentage at home is tied for the worst in the league with Los Angeles and they’re actually better on the road.
Lamar Miller has helped power the run offense to the fifth highest rushing yards per game average in the NFL. While Miller’s got four red zone rushing touchdowns, the red zone passing touchdowns have been spread out with C.J. Fiedoriwicz, Will Fuller, and Ryan Griffin leading the way. While the Green Bay Packers have a go-to guy like Jordy Nelson to lean on when in deep, the Texans don’t.
The issue is Brock Osweiler and the pass offense. Brock’s completing less than 60 percent of attempts. He has the fifth lowest touchdown percentage, is tied for the fourth worst interception percentage, and has the second worst quarterback rating. His red zone numbers aren’t as bad, but still below average.
Houston’s got a 63 percent chance of winning the AFC South with the Jaguars, Bengals, and Titans left on the docket. If teams are keying on Lamar Miller in the red zone, they’ll need their tight ends and Fuller to win battles in confined quarters.
Aug 27, 2016; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; New York Jets quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick (14) pointing at the defense in the 1st half at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: William Hauser-USA TODAY Sports
1. New York Jets
2016 Red Zone Touchdown Percentage: 41.46
2015 Red Zone Touchdown Percentage: 66.04
What a difference a year makes. In 2015, the New York Jets were third in the league in red zone touchdown scoring percentage thanks to Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall. That duo accounted for 19 receiving touchdowns inside the 20. In 2016, Marshall has four and Decker had two before his season-ending injury.
Matt Forte and Bilal Powell have been a nice combination on the ground when in the red zone accumulating eight touchdowns. The run offense is averaging 4.3 yards per carry and more than 111 rushing yards per game to put them within a sniff of the top groups in the NFL.
The quarterback play has been a different story. After holding out for nearly the entire training camp, Ryan Fitzpatrick re-signed to a one year deal with a second-year option. Many believed he gave Gang Green their best shot of repeating last season’s success. Instead, Fitz has the third lowest touchdown percentage, the third lowest completion percentage, the highest interception percentage, and the worst quarterback rating in the NFL.
No one threw more red zone interceptions than Fitzpatrick. His touchdown percentage in the red zone is 7th worst among qualifying quarterbacks and his 42.55 red zone completion percentage is fourth worst overall.
Safe to say with head coach Todd Bowles going to Bryce Petty in the remaining games, Fitz’s tenure as a Jet is coming to a close. The draft could yield someone like Deshaun Watson, but a more veteran presence would be a better bet. Rumors have circulated that the team might be interested in Tony Romo, Colin Kaepernick, Jay Cutler, and Kirk Cousins among others. Getting Decker back should provide whoever’s throwing the ball plenty of scoring chances.
