College Basketball

8 teams from the preseason Top 25 still trying to meet expectations

Updated Dec. 27, 2022 6:27 p.m. ET

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Andy Katz

College Basketball Analyst & Writer

College basketball preseason predictions are simply for the fans and media to put up some baselines for the upcoming season.

Rarely do the predictions hold.

Post-Christmas and in advance of conference play restarting, let’s take a look at teams that were ranked in the preseason AP Top 25 who have dug holes for themselves thus far and still need to do some work to make a run to the NCAA Tournament.

Creighton

Preseason ranking: 9
Record on Dec. 26: 8-6, 2-1 in the Big East
NET ranking on Dec. 26: 34
Record in quad 1 games on Dec. 26: 1-4

What happened: The Bluejays were the pick to win the Big East. They had the look of a conference champ even after the Maui Invitational loss to Arizona, an 81-79 defeat that was one of the best on the nonconference slate. The schedule wasn’t kind to Creighton following the trip. Creighton went on a six-game losing streak after Maui — all against quality teams. Creighton played at Texas, hosted Nebraska, played BYU and Arizona State in Las Vegas, and then went to Marquette. The Bluejays were within a possession or two of winning all of these games except Nebraska, oddly enough. 

An injury to center Ryan Kalkbrenner didn’t help the situation. Kalkbrenner missed the losses to BYU, ASU and at Marquette. This team has never had trouble scoring but missed Kalkbrenner’s defensive presence when he was out. Creighton has won its last two games against Butler and DePaul at home, and gets Seton Hall on Jan. 3, so the Jays have a long break to continue to get healthy and reset. Winning the Big East seems unlikely now with UConn’s hot start. But getting an NCAA Tournament bid is clearly still a high probability, barring a complete collapse. Creighton has one of the hardest road swings of any Big East team on Jan. 7 and 11, going to UConn and Xavier back-to-back. But as long as Creighton doesn’t lose to teams not going to the NCAAs (re: Georgetown, DePaul) and wins enough of the peer quad 1 games, then the Bluejays should be fine to get a bid and a decent seed, and still make a run. 

Trey Alexander drops 32 in win over DePaul

Auburn

Preseason ranking: 15
Record on Dec. 26: 10-2
NET ranking on Dec. 26: 28
Record in quad 1 games on Dec. 26: 1-1

What happened: The two losses Auburn suffered so far came against the two teams on their schedule that are likely headed to the NCAA Tournament: Memphis (82-73) and at USC (74-71). The Tigers have been able to score, and in theory might be able to look back and say the wins over Northwestern (43-42 in Cancun), Saint Louis (65-60) and at Washington (84-61) — as well as Colgate (93-66) — might carry more weight by season’s end. 

The Tigers are simply not as talented as they were a year ago with Jabari Smith leading them. In addition, the SEC is stronger with Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas and maybe Kentucky at the top, plus Mississippi State, LSU and Missouri making strong nonconference showings. Finishing in the top five is going to be a slog. The Tigers will likely get there but probably won’t end up being a top-15 team in March. 

Villanova

Preseason ranking: 16
Record on Dec. 26: 7-6, 1-0 in Big East
NET ranking on Dec. 26: 98
Record in quad 1 games on Dec. 26: 0-2

What happened: Injuries. Scheduling. The Wildcats were without their most highly touted newcomer in Cam Whitmore (thumb injury) for the first seven games. He has played in the last five, averaging 12 and six as the Wildcats have won them all. Wins over Oklahoma, Penn, Boston College, Saint Joseph’s and St. John’s are not going to move the needle much. Still, the Wildcats can’t be dismissed. This is Villanova. Sure, Kyle Neptune isn’t Hall of Fame coach Jay Wright. But Neptune is no slouch. He can coach, and to dismiss a healthy Wildcats roster from a top-four Big East finish would be a major mistake. The odds are against them now, but there’s no reason to believe they can’t mount a successful NCAA Tournament bid campaign. 

San Diego State

Preseason ranking: 19
Record on Dec. 26: 9-3
NET ranking on Dec. 26: 38
Record in quad 1 games on Dec. 26: 1-3

What happened: A hard schedule is part of the problem, and it’s a good problem to have for the Aztecs. Beating Ohio State in the first game of the Maui Invitational guaranteed that San Diego State played two high-level games that will only help them. They lost to Arizona by 17 but then fell in OT to Arkansas. The one loss that could sting was to Saint Mary’s on a neutral court. If the Gaels can be a factor in the WCC that would help. 

Wins over BYU, at Stanford and vs. UC Irvine look good now by name, but let’s see how well they hold up. Having New Mexico ranked and undefeated ensures the Aztecs have a quad 1 opponent in the chase for the Mountain West title. San Diego State likely will be in a position to get an at-large NCAA Tournament berth, barring losing games it should not in the conference.

Oregon

Preseason ranking: 21
Record on Dec. 26: 7-6, 1-1 in Pac-12
NET ranking on Dec. 26: 71
Record in quad 1 games on Dec. 26: 0-3

What happened: Injuries. It sounds like an excuse, but it’s hard to ignore the facts. Oregon has been crushed by injuries to key players. Keeshawn Barthelemy has played in four games, Brennan Rigsby six, Nate Bittle six, Lok Wur nine. Only four players have played in all 13 of Oregon's games, while six have played in 12 of 13. Losses to Houston at home, UConn and Michigan State in Portland, and at UCLA were totally acceptable for an injury-riddled team. But losses at home to UC Irvine on Nov. 11, and then to Utah Valley on Dec. 20 absolutely crushed them. 

The Pac-12 has a few opportunities to get it right — a second UCLA game in February, a pair against Arizona, one against USC, and two against Arizona State. But a must tag has to be applied to three of the six while avoiding bad losses within the league will be mandatory. Dana Altman has historically had teams improve during the season. Last season it didn’t occur. It has to happen this winter for the Ducks to get a bid.

Michigan

Preseason ranking: 22
Record on Dec. 26: 7-4, 1-0 Big Ten
Net ranking on Dec. 26: 80
Record in quad 1 Games on Dec. 26: 0-4

What happened: The Wolverines had plenty of questions coming into the season with such a young roster around Hunter Dickinson. And the schedule was tough. The first red flag popped up when Michigan lost by 25 to Arizona State in Brooklyn. Beating Ohio by four in overtime was another indicator that things might not be right. Falling to Virginia at home by two was fine. But then the Wolverines had to fly to London to play Kentucky (questionable scheduling in hindsight), only to use by four and in the process see Princeton transfer Jaelin Llewellyn go down for the season with a knee injury.

Getting to play at Minnesota — the one Big Ten team struggling — on the way back was huge for Michigan. But then playing North Carolina in Charlotte was another opportunity missed. The Wolverines have plenty of chances to correct the season in a Big Ten loaded with quad one games (see: Rutgers last season), so there is no reason to panic yet. But the Wolverines can’t afford to be teetering in early March. The likelihood is Michigan gets a bid, but it might be a double-digit seed.

Dayton

Preseason ranking: 24
Record on Dec. 26: 8-5 
Net ranking on Dec. 26: 82
Record in quad 1 games on Dec. 26: 0-3

What happened: The Flyers returned the core of their team and were the pick to win the A-10. But injuries to Malachi Smith (four games played so far) and Kobe Elvis (seven games) has been crushing. Neither player has played since a loss to BYU in Atlantis on Nov. 25. Beating SMU looked good, but then dropping an eight-point game at UNLV was a minor setback at the time. And then in Atlantis, everything went south with three straight losses to Wisconsin, NC State and BYU. Expecting a win at Virginia Tech was unrealistic. Losing 77-49 adds to the anxiety. 

The problem for Dayton is the A-10 is having an incredibly poor nonconference season, with Fordham the only consistent winner at 12-1. Yes, Fordham has played the best, thus far. That means the Flyers must have a remarkable A-10 record to have a chance at an at-large berth. 

Texas Tech

Preseason ranking: 25
Record on Dec. 26: 9-2
Net ranking on Dec. 26: 56
Record in quad 1 games on Dec. 26: 0-2

What happened: The Red Raiders left Maui with only one win, and it came against the one team that for certain isn’t making the NCAA Tournament in Louisville. No shame in losing to Creighton and Ohio State, but that meant Tech didn’t get any power ranking pop out of the event. Getting Georgetown in the Big 12-Big East event didn’t help. So, the schedule hasn’t provided Texas Tech with much assistance. Not having Fardaws Aimaq, whom the Red Raiders were counting on this season, has hurt their overall board/productivity. The hope is he’s back for the Big 12. There is enough talent to get a bid and the quad 1 opportunities in the Big 12 are plentiful. This team can still be a top-25 squad and should earn a bid in March.

Read more:

• College basketball power rankings: UConn, Arizona keep rolling
• No. 1 Purdue headlines AP Top 25; Miami leaps, UNC returns
• College basketball tiers: Purdue among those making a splash
• Wisconsin has been a big surprise so far this season

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Andy Katz is a longtime college basketball writer, analyst and host. He can be seen on the Big Ten Network, as well as March Madness and NCAA.com, and he hosts the podcast "March Madness 365." Katz worked at ESPN for nearly two decades and, prior to that, in newspapers for nine years.

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College Basketball

Michigan Wolverines

Creighton Bluejays

Villanova Wildcats

Auburn Tigers

San Diego State Aztecs

Oregon Ducks

Dayton Flyers

Texas Tech Red Raiders

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Big Ten

Big East

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Andy Katz