College Football

2023 College Football Week 6 predictions, best bets by Chris 'The Bear' Fallica

Updated Oct. 6, 2023 1:13 p.m. ET

"Bear Bets" are real wagers that Chris "The Bear" Fallica is actually making.

Week 6 of the college football season is here, and the slate features some great wagering opportunities.

As for betting on college football every week, I will share my best bets and gambling nuggets (Bear Bytes) with you throughout the season in this space. So, if you are looking to throw a few bucks down on the big games this week, I've got you covered.

On a side note, a new episode of my digital gambling show and podcast will be posted every Thursday. The college football-focused episodes — presented by Big Noon Kickoff — will be released on Thursdays, with the NFL-themed episodes dropping on Fridays.

Let's have some fun and, hopefully, make some money.

Here are my favorite wagers for Week 6.

Last Week: 4-3 (15-17-1 season)

All times ET

UCLA vs. No. 13 Washington State (3 p.m. Saturday, Pac-12 Network)

Wazzu has all the feels of a dog with fleas this week: undefeated and going to UCLA, whose offense could do nothing in Salt Lake two weeks ago.

But remember, this is a UCLA defense that leads the nation in opponent yards per play and should offer Cam Ward and the Cougar offense their stiffest test. This will be one of those "it's not an upset" upsets, as the unranked team is favored over the ranked team.

In the UCLA defense, we trust.

PICK: UCLA (-3) to win by more than 3 points

Joel Klatt's Top 10 teams for Week 6

California vs. No. 15 Oregon State (10 p.m. Saturday, Pac-12 Network)

Cal’s record as an underdog under Justin Wilcox has been well-documented. Now, off a ho-hum win as a big favorite over ASU, the Bears get Oregon State, which knocked off Utah last week. This feels like a natural letdown spot for the Beavers. It also feels like Wilcox’s defense will have a plan to confuse D.J. Uiagalelei, who has thrown four interceptions in the last three weeks and has completed barely 50% of his passes in that span.

I'm not sure Cal can ultimately win outright, but it's worth a part of a unit. But I do think 9.5 is too many points.

PICK: Cal (+9.5) to lose by 9 points or fewer (or win outright)

No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 20 Kentucky (7 p.m. Saturday, ESPN)

Georgia’s slow starts have been widely discussed, and at some point, one would expect the Bulldogs to put 60 minutes together. This could be the week as they host Kentucky, which is coming off a thumping of Florida but has scored 13, 0, 13, 3, 17 and 10 in its last six trips to Athens.

I can see a lot of people being on UK getting north of two touchdowns this week, and I’ll happily take the contrarian favorite.

PICK: Georgia (-14.5) to win by 15 points or more

Texas A&M vs. No. 11 Alabama (3:30 p.m. Saturday, CBS)

Alabama ranks 67th nationally this year in yards per carry (4.09) vs. FBS teams. It now goes against one of the best defensive lines in the country and a unit that allows just 2.8 yards per game and 96 rush yards per game.

Jalen Milroe has been better through the air the last two games against the Mississippi schools (27-for-33, 389 yards), but we also know those defenses are kind of bad. We saw Texas control the line of scrimmage vs. the Tide, and it wasn’t a fluke. The Aggies present similar problems, and even without Conner Weigman, Max Johnson has plenty of experience to run this A&M offense.

This is a massive opportunity for the Aggies, who many left for dead after the loss at Miami. A win here opens up everything for the Aggies — SEC West title and maybe more. A loss, and the Aggie faithful are back to figuring out how to buyout Jimbo Fisher. I think they’ll be happy in Aggieland come Saturday night.

PICK: Texas A&M (+2.5) to lose by 2 points or fewer (or win outright)

Will we see a college football playoff without the SEC?

Marshall vs. North Carolina State (2 p.m. Saturday, CW Network)

I have no idea what has happened to Brennan Armstrong. The year 2021 feels like so long ago. Now, he’s been replaced by MJ Morris in Raleigh in an effort to kick-start an offense that hasn’t scored more than 24 vs. any FBS team this year and has been involved in a pair of field goal games the last two weeks.

Marshall’s running game behind Rasheen Ali is solid, and the Herd has already beaten a lower-echelon ACC team this year. It has an excellent chance to make it two.

PICK: Marshall (+6.5) to lose by 6 points or fewer (or win outright)

Syracuse at No. 14 North Carolina (3:30 p.m. Saturday, ESPN)

This is the first of three straight road games for the Orange after losing to Clemson at the Dome last week. However, I was probably off on the Orange this year. Their defense has played pretty well, and Garrett Shrader should have more success this week on the ground than he did against Clemson.

Carolina hosts Miami next week, so this might be a tad of a look-ahead spot for UNC, which has beaten South Carolina, App State, Minnesota and Pitt this year. There have been numerous examples in the last couple of years in which UNC has struggled as a big favorite, and it wouldn’t shock me if the Tar Heels found themselves in a game here.

PICK: Syracuse (+10) to lose by fewer than 10 points (or win outright)

No. 3 Texas vs. No. 12 Oklahoma (Noon Saturday, ABC)

I initially wasn’t planning on getting involved in this one, but the move to 5.5 will get me to bite on the Longhorns.

Typically, the better team wins the Red River game, and it's hard to dispute that Texas is the better team entering the game. Oklahoma’s defense has been statistically improved from a year ago, but this is by far the best offense OU will have faced, no disrespect to Arkansas State, SMU, Tulsa, Cincinnati and Iowa State. This is currently the only ranked opponent remaining on each team's schedule, so there's a great chance we’re seeing meeting one of two this year.

Consider this, however: If Texas wins here, has a road win at Bama and a neutral win over OU and enters the Big 12 title game undefeated, it may not even need to win the Big 12 title game to reach the CFP. Yes, it's a long way off, but just file it away. I'll lay the 5.5 with the team that dominated Bama in the trenches.

PICK: Texas (-5.5) to win by more than 5 points

North Texas at Navy (3:30 p.m. Saturday, CBSSN)

I had UNT a couple of weeks back when it won at Louisiana Tech, and I’ll be back on the Mean Green here to put up enough points to hang with a Navy team that certainly gives up a lot of them.

PICK: North Texas (+6) to lose by fewer than 6 points (or win outright)

Can Oklahoma upset Texas in the Red River Shootout?

Joel Klatt broke down No. 12 Oklahoma Sooners vs. No. 3 Texas Longhorns in the Red River Shootout.

Underdogs to play on moneyline

Marshall +210
Louisville +225
Akron +180
Missouri +200
Iowa State +190
Wyoming +190
Cal +290
Texas A&M +125

BEAR BYTES

Now it's time to have some fun with my "Bear Bytes."

These little "bytes," as I call them, are just nuggets that give you some entertaining talking points to pull from as you watch the football festivities with friends and family or banter with your co-workers at the water cooler.

Here are the biggest nuggets that stuck out to me while doing my research:

Since 2021, unranked favorites have won 14 of 19 meetings with ranked opponents. UCLA is a three-point favorite over Washington State on Saturday. Last year, there were two instances of an unranked team being favored over a team ranked 13th or better, as the Cougars are here. Texas beat No. 13 K-State 34-27, and Washington beat then-No. 11 Michigan State 39-28.

Oklahoma vs. Texas

In the last eight meetings, there has been just one upset: Texas’ 2018 win as a 7.5-point underdogs. The last time OU upset Texas was 2002, when it won 35-24 as a 4-point dog. This is the fifth time since 2002 that Texas is favored over Oklahoma.

Miami vs. Georgia Tech

The last three times Miami has been a double-digit favorite over Georgia Tech has seen the Yellow Jackets pull off the outright win twice (2005, 2019) and then lose by three as a 10-point dog in 2021. Is this a look-ahead spot for Miami with UNC up next week?

Against three Power Five opponents this season, Georgia Tech has allowed 250 rush YPG on 6.1 YPC.

LSU at Missouri

LSU has seen each of its last nine and 12 of its last 13 games go over the total. Six of the nine had at least 65 points scored, which is the current total for Saturday’s game.

Northern Illinois at Akron

Dating back to last year, Northern Illinois has lost eight straight games in which it was favored. NIU last won a game as a favorite over an FBS team in 2021.

Notre Dame at Louisville

Dating back to 2021, Jeff Brohm has been a single-digit underdog nine times. His team has won six of them outright.

On the flip side, Notre Dame has won 17 straight true road games in which it was favored, dating back to a 2017 loss at Stanford. The Irish are in the middle of a four-game stretch against ranked opponents - the first two games were decided in the final seconds - and finish the stretch next week against No. 9 USC.

North Carolina at Syracuse

Dating back to 2021, the last nine times UNC was favored by greater than seven points against an FBS opponent, the Tar Heels lost four outright - all coming as a favorite of at least 12 points - and covered only twice. Is this a look-ahead spot for UNC, which has Miami next week?

Kentucky at Georgia

Georgia has seen each of its last six and 11 of its last 14 regular season games vs. ranked opponents go under the total. In those six games, the Bulldogs have allowed 13, 3, 13, 10, 0 and 3 points.

Each of the last four games between UGA and UK have gone under, with a total of 103 points scored in the four games. UGA failed to cover any of the four, as the Bulldogs were at least a 17-point favorite in each game.

Alabama at Texas A&M

If Alabama does not close as the favorite, it will be the first time since 2015 that the Tide are not favored in a regular season game. That year, Alabama was a one-point dog and won at Georgia 38-10. Prior to that, the last instance of Alabama not being favored in a regular season game was in 2008 when the Tide won 41-30 at Georgia. As of this writing, Alabama is a one-point favorite at Texas A&M.

Maryland at Ohio State

Since joining the Big Ten, Maryland is 0-31 (6-25 ATS) vs. ranked Big Ten opponents, losing by an average of 30.3 PPG with 29 by at least double digits and 22 by at least 21 points. However, one of the two gamed decided by single digits was a 2018 52-51 loss to Ohio State in College Park.

Chris "The Bear" Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an "occasional" wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He's a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, "The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!" Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.