College Football

Ranking college football conference races after Shakeup Saturday

Published Nov. 7, 2022 9:31 a.m. ET

College football is almost orchestral at its core, with each season floating up or down the symphonic scales of bedlam with little rhyme and even less reason.

Some weeks it’s a gradual build to an extraordinary climax that changes the course of several programs. Other times we sit down for hours to watch and listen to a rollercoaster full of alternating high notes and others reaching their lowest ebbs.

In Week 10, however, the sport may have leaped fully off the page, delivering thunderous crescendo after crescendo in one of the best days of the year. The organized set of chaos that typically cascades across various TV windows was turned up a notch. Maybe three.

To call the weekend memorable might not do it justice.

RJ Young's Top 25: Georgia moves to No. 1

RJ Young compares his rankings to the AP poll and predicts how the CFP rankings will look when they are released on Tuesday night.

TCU's "Big Noon" debut saw the Horned Frogs mount another second-half comeback to win convincingly, and that result may not have even cracked the top-15 of unexpected moments.

Kansas is not just going bowling but became emphatically eligible with a complete destruction of Oklahoma State. Bijan Robinson channeled his inner hulk in knocking off Kansas State and helping Texas actually maintain a fourth-quarter lead. Multiple player suspensions aside, Mel Tucker and Michigan State put an end to a few lofty dreams at Illinois. Marshall won a game with fewer than 100 yards passing and without scoring a touchdown. Fields were stormed from Baton Rouge to South Bend. Weather events made nearly every outing an adventure on special teams.

And how could you not be transfixed by SMU beating Houston 77-63 (yes, in football), a new FBS record for most points in a regulation game? Quarterbacks Clayton Tune and Tanner Mordecai combined for a new NCAA record 16 passing touchdowns and had 18 total scores in the contest.

You don’t see that every day. You don’t see that every season. And yet we did — all on a day in which three of the top six teams lost for just the third time in the College Football Playoff era.

It is at the top where that chaos is most meaningful. The College Football Playoff race has been shaken up. A handful of teams can be crossed out entirely from that final-four chase.

On the other hand, few benefited more from the turmoil than the Horned Frogs. Many took exception to their No. 7 ranking in the Selection Committee’s initial Top 25 last Tuesday, questioning why those in purple got dinged for a lack of game control while others, who had the same issue, were praised for being "balanced."

Now Sonny Dykes, Max Duggan & Co. have a much clearer pathway to reaching the semifinal that eluded the program in 2014, when an 11-1 TCU squad was assigned to the Peach Bowl instead. Win out, and they’re in, no need to keep a second screen on what Clemson might be doing. Losses by Wake Forest and Syracuse furthered the cause.

The same door was cracked a little wider for those out West, too. Oregon needed a convincing Georgia win over Tennessee and additional help in the SEC West — and got both. USC and UCLA were in the same boat and received an additional benefit with Utah's impressive win against Arizona.

In early September, it looked like the best opportunity for the Pac-12 to end a five-year playoff drought had slipped away again. Now in early November, there are three teams with potential shots at glory, with all getting the right cards to come up elsewhere across the country.

Just as exciting? All have spicy title chases at the local level that funnel into the larger national discussion. Which one, exactly, is the most electrifying of the bunch, and which one is a little closer to a snooze fest?

Why scheduling matters in college football

Joel Klatt discusses the impact of Oregon playing Georgia back in Week 1, and explains why the most important things in college football are scheduling and recruiting.

Factoring in everything from the depth of contenders, how good those top teams are, and what kind of playoff implications each carries, here’s a look at every conference race and how they stack up against the others, from best to worst:

1. Pac-12

Contenders: No. 6 Oregon (8-1), No. 8 USC (8-1), No. 9 UCLA (8-1), No. 13 Utah (7-2)

Why it’s No. 1: Pure entertainment and the biggest stakes. Every offense is stylistically different but can pile up points in bunches, and the defenses are just flawed enough to keep any game threatening. Plus, all will have massive games on the same Nov. 12 date (Utah at Oregon, USC at UCLA) right before rivalry week hits.

Scrapping divisions prior to the season may also wind up being a stroke of genius given how compelling things are out West. Aspirations of making the playoff are still alive for the Ducks, Trojans and Bruins — with each sporting a true Heisman Trophy contender at quarterback, too. Don’t discount the reigning champions either, as the Utes, when healthy, have been rolling lately and might be the most composed of the bunch despite having two losses. What’s been so impressive in 2022 is how each has handled its business against the bottom half of the league, something that has almost never been the case in much of the past two decades. Every weekend the rest of the way is an elimination battle on the way to Vegas, with no margin for error.

CFP implications: A one-loss Pac-12 champion would have a good case to make a semifinal. It would have at least two quality, top-15 wins to impress the committee, plus plenty of momentum with lengthy winning streaks coming out of Vegas. The teams' non-conference slates are no slouch and the amount of help needed to feel really secure about a bid continues to shrink given losses by Tennessee, Clemson and Alabama.

Why Dykes, Riley are top candidates for Coach of the Year

RJ Young shares who he believes are the top five candidates to win the Coach of the Year Award in college football.

2. Big 12

Contenders: TCU (9-0), Texas (6-3), Baylor (6-3), Kansas State (6-3), Kansas (6-3), Oklahoma State (6-3)

Why it’s No. 2: Parity. The tight standings have kept the majority of the league engaged in the title race, which is great for multiple fan bases. The double-edged part of that sword is that there’s only one program capable of emerging to make the playoff and draw national attention to a regional race. Still, fun doesn’t even do justice to how close every Big 12 game has been — something that should continue given the upcoming matchups.

Every single game is almost NFL-like in its ability to have either side emerge with a victory, and that’s translated into must-see TV from high noon to primetime. Six out of the 10 teams are already bowl-eligible and all still have a shot to get to AT&T Stadium come December.

CFP implications: Everybody, bar TCU, will be looking at a Sugar Bowl berth at best this season. The Horned Frogs though, have to run the table given how the selection committee hasn’t been too impressed with their ability to win ball games no matter how far behind they get.

TCU, Tennessee, Oregon benefit from others' losses

Joel Klatt explains why the losses of Clemson and Alabama help more teams get opportunities to get to the CFP.

3. Big Ten

Contenders: No. 2 Ohio State (9-0), No. 3 Michigan (9-0)

Still alive: Illinois (7-2), Wisconsin (5-4), Purdue (5-4), Iowa (5-4), Minnesota (6-3)

Why it’s No. 3: Top-end inevitability weighed against chaos. Thanks to the divisional disparity, there’s quite the dichotomy between an eastern side harboring national championship aspirations and the jumbled nature of the west wing. Much of the Big Ten race hinges on Ohio State hosting Michigan in Columbus at the end of the month. The winner of that will be the assumed winner of the league and the requisite CFP pick from the conference. Illinois still controls their fate in the other division, but also has a trip to the Big House on the docket and four other teams just a game behind in the standings. What the Big Ten West lacks in high-end heft, it makes up for with intrigue and openness, as nearly every contest is meaningful down the stretch. That’s especially the case for Wisconsin, which could also lock up Jim Leonard as head coach with a trip to Indianapolis.

CFP implications: Illinois’ loss to Michigan State means it’s down to the Wolverines and Buckeyes in regard to the College Football Playoff. Based on past comments, the chance Michigan gets in at 11-1 is slim to none given their lackluster non-conference schedule and an offense that isn’t quite as explosive as others. The Buckeyes dropping a close one to their rivals wouldn’t rule them out completely, but they’d need to benefit from additional losses in the Big 12, Pac-12 and ACC.

Michigan should be ranked higher than Ohio State

Joel Klatt explains why he’s ranking Michigan ahead of Ohio State and questions whether Ohio State fans should be concerned.

4. AAC

Contenders: Tulane (8-1), UCF (7-2), Cincinnati (7-2)

Still alive: SMU (5-4), East Carolina (6-3), Houston (5-4)

Why it’s No. 4: Fun finishes. The American isn’t as strong as it once was, but it remains the class of the Group of 5 and features plenty of intrigue at the top. Tulane closes the year with fellow contenders UCF, SMU and Cincinnati all in a row. The Bearcats also take on ECU in addition to the Green Wave, and UCF could lock up a spot in the championship game with a win this Saturday. That’s a fun final three weeks of games to close out November.

CFP implications: Tulane, UCF and Cincinnati all have a case to be the Group of 5 selection and make the Cotton Bowl, but otherwise there will be no repeat of the Bearcats’ Cinderella run last season.

5. SEC

Contenders: No. 1 Georgia (9-0), LSU (7-2), Ole Miss (8-1)

Still Alive: Alabama (7-2), Tennessee (8-1)

Why it’s No. 5: Great teams, but it’s lacking options. The top end of the conference is as good as any, but that has already coalesced into it a likely UGA-LSU matchup in the conference title game given the remaining schedules. The Tigers will lock up the West if they beat Arkansas and Ole Miss loses to Alabama on Saturday, while the Dawgs need just one more SEC win to clinch the East. In short, go ahead and pencil in that early December meeting.

This is not to write the obituary on the dynasty that Nick Saban has assembled in Tuscaloosa, but it was abundantly clear this past weekend that it’s now Georgia that is the standard-bearer for the SEC. Not many could withstand the loss of so many draft picks off an all-time defense and yet remain right back in the thick of things as a championship favorite the next season. That’s just what kind of machine Kirby Smart has built, and a reason the Bulldogs have a chance to do what others like 2015 Ohio State could not — repeat. The Tide, meanwhile, may have been ahead of schedule last year, but they are clearly behind schedule this year and would need LSU to lose out just to have a shot at making it to Atlanta. The Tigers benefit from tiebreakers over Bama and Ole Miss, but the margin is still thin if Lane Kiffin can run the table. The Vols are technically still alive, too.

CFP implications: The thought that the SEC could get a pair of teams into the final four has tapered off, but you can’t completely rule it out with Tennessee potentially going 11-1 with a road loss to the No. 1 team. Alabama is playing for a New Year’s Six game at this point, and LSU will need to win out and beat Georgia to make it into the field. We’ll find out for sure about the Rebels’ ability to compete for the title if they can take care of business against Saban’s group, but are best sorted into the group of dark horses right now.

Alabama is going to be just fine

Joel Klatt explains what the future holds for Alabama and Clemson after Week 10 losses.

6. Sun Belt

Contenders: Coastal Carolina (8-1), Troy (7-2), South Alabama (7-2)

Still alive: Southern Miss (5-4)

Why it’s No. 6: They call it the Fun Belt for a reason. After making waves in the non-conference slate, the league has a chance to pit two pretty good programs against each other in the championship game — and even get that elusive Group of 5 bid to the Cotton Bowl.

If you’re in the market for a coach in the next year or two, this alone might be a reason to tune into the final few Sun Belt games of the year. The diversity in styles, from Coastal’s option-based offense to Troy’s hard-nosed defense also means no game is the same for 60 minutes.

CFP implications: None, but Jamie Chadwell and the Chanticleers are still lurking as potential Cotton Bowl participants by winning out.

7. ACC

Contenders: Clemson (8-1), North Carolina (8-1)

Still alive: Syracuse (6-3), NC State (7-2), Duke (6-3), Georgia Tech (4-5)

Why it’s No. 7: The trip to Charlotte is almost locked up at this point and the only drama left in the ACC got sucked out of the room when Clemson dropped one to Notre Dame. With a thin path to national relevance and more mediocre football than you know what to do with, this is a league capable of producing amazing surprises every Saturday — but often not due to the caliber of play between the lines.

The flip side is that apart from those rooting for the Tigers’ demise, the Tar Heels have one of the more fun offenses to watch and could have some real NFL stars on their hands in QB Drake Maye and wideout Josh Downs.

CFP implications: There’s an outside shot at a 12-1 ACC champ making the field, but they would need a bunch of help, including possible one-loss division runners-up like Tennessee and Michigan to take additional losses.

8. Mid-American

Contenders: Ohio (6-3), Buffalo (5-4), Bowling Green (5-4), Toledo (6-3), Ball State (5-4)

Still alive: Miami (OH) (4-5), Kent State (3-6), Eastern Michigan (5-4), Western Michigan (3-6), Central Michigan (3-6)

Why it's No. 8: Mid-week football, muddled results. The real reason we have football on TV every day until right before Thanksgiving is the MAC, which isn't great this year but does have the widest field chasing the title.

CFP implications: None.

9. Mountain West

Contenders: Boise State (6-3), Wyoming (6-3), Utah State (4-5), San Jose State (6-2), Fresno State (5-4)

Still alive: San Diego State (5-4), UNLV (4-5)

Why it's No. 9: Somebody has to win it. Look, there's no way to sugarcoat things: the Mountain West in 2022 is the worst it's been in ages. Boise State, which lost to BYU at home Saturday to go winless in non-conference, might still be the favorite by a decent margin as the only undefeated program left in league play. There are a ton of young teams involved so if nothing else it could be a good glimpse at what's to come in 2023 with the stretch run.

CFP implications: None.

10. Conference USA

Contenders: UTSA (7-2), North Texas (6-4)

Still alive: Rice (5-4), Western Kentucky (6-4), FAU (4-5)

Why it's No. 10: Lacking drama and lacking options. Reigning champion UTSA is not as good as a season ago but still puts out an entertaining product pretty much every week (see a recent double-OT win over UAB). North Texas is one win away from locking up a rematch with the Roadrunners and has been an interesting story in sticking with an embattled head coach after Seth Littrel has guided the team to a 10-1 run in league play dating back to last season. A few others are technically in the mix but would need a ton to happen given tiebreakers involved.

CFP implications: None.

Make it make sense

Saturday superlatives

Best Player: Tanner Mordecai (SMU)

Team of the Week: LSU

Coach of the Week: Mel Tucker (Michigan State)

Goat of the Week: Dabo Swinney (Clemson)

Heisman Five: 1. Blake Corum (Michigan), 2. Bo Nix (Oregon), 3. Caleb Williams (USC), 4. C.J. Stroud (Ohio State), 5. Bryce Young (Alabama)/Max Duggan (TCU)/Drake Maye (North Carolina)/Hendon Hooker (Tennessee)

Tweet of the Week

Super 16

Here’s how I voted in the FWAA/NFF Super 16 Poll this week:

Georgia
Ohio State
Michigan
TCU
Oregon
Tennessee
UCLA
LSU
USC
Alabama
Ole Miss
Utah
Penn State
North Carolina
Clemson
Tulane

Just missed the cut: Texas

Best of the rest: Illinois, N.C. State, Liberty, Florida State, Kansas State, Baylor, Washington, Wake Forest

Pre-snap reads

Washington at No. 8 Oregon (Saturday, 7 p.m. ET; FOX and the FOX Sports app)

If this game had been under the lights on Montlake, the Huskies may have had a shot. But it’s at dusk in Autzen against a team that might be playing as well as any in the country. UW’s passing game will ensure they’re pesky until the final quarter, but the Ducks have been planning for this game for two weeks and will look to make a statement with the final score.

No. 13 Kansas State at Baylor (7 p.m. ET; FS1 and the FOX Sports app)

The Bears have started to turn things around in the last three weeks and look like the team that was the favorite to repeat as Big 12 champs. QB health seems to dictate the Wildcats’ outlook, with seemingly every option on the table in terms of their ceiling and their floor out on the field. Something strange is bound to flip momentum in this one, but we’ll lean with the home side to get the W eventually.

No. 7 TCU at No. 24 Texas (7:30 p.m. ET)

The Gary Patterson Bowl takes on added meaning with the Horned Frogs being the Big 12’s lone CFP hope. They’ve historically had success in Austin and many players should feel amped to play a night game at DKR with plenty of energy. But the Horns have a penchant for blowing second-half leads and TCU seems to find ways of creatively erasing them, so we’ll stick with that in a narrow margin that keeps Sonny Dykes undefeated.

No. 25 UCF at No. 19 Tulane (3:30 p.m. ET)

A ranked Tulane team hasn’t hosted another ranked team at home since they were in the SEC (really), so there might be just a bit of pressure on the Green Wave to come out with a win. The Knights are a good bet to start hot, but in the end, Willie Fritz’s crew will keep chipping into the lead and eventually emerge with a victory late.

No. 6 Alabama at No. 11 Ole Miss (3:30 p.m. ET)

How long do you think Lane Kiffin has been planning for this particular game? He’s bound to have a few things saved up just to take advantage of a Bama defense that sometimes inflicts issues on itself (and other times can’t get off the field on third down). Bryce Young will still do his thing to keep the Tide alive, but it wouldn’t be shocking if they went into Oxford and needed a late field goal to keep this from becoming a full-blown crisis in Tuscaloosa.

Read more:

Bryan Fischer is a college football writer for FOX Sports. He has been covering college athletics for nearly two decades at outlets such as NBC Sports, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and NFL.com among others. Follow him on Twitter at @BryanDFischer.