National Basketball Association

Jason McIntyre NBA Mock Draft 5.0: Will Green or Cunningham go No. 1?

Updated Jul. 29, 2021 9:31 p.m. ET

By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

The 2021 NBA Draft is just days away, and this much we know: Even though Cade Cunningham is the favorite to go first, the odds on him have been dropping, and new Detroit Pistons GM Troy Weaver might have a 2017 situation on his hands.

That’s when Boston held the No. 1 pick, and there wasn’t much separating Markelle Fultz, Lonzo Ball and Jayson Tatum as prospects. Danny Ainge famously traded down to No. 3 (because everyone knew the Los Angeles Lakers coveted Ball) and stole a lottery pick in the process.

And, oh yeah – Ainge snagged the player who has been (by a large margin) the best player taken in that top 10.

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1. Detroit Pistons – Jalen Green, Guard, G League

Cade Cunningham is the favorite to be the first pick overall, and he’d be a fine selection. He has a future as an All-Star. But Green has the higher ceiling, and he has the most dynamic combination of scoring and athleticism in the draft. Cunningham shined in the Big 12, but Green was dominant in the much tougher G-League against current and former NBA players.

2. Houston Rockets – Cade Cunningham, Guard, Oklahoma State

Rockets fans should chill with the "we don’t need a guard — we have John Wall and Kevin Porter" nonsense. Cunningham is from Texas and had an unbelievable high school career, culminating with a 25-0 season in which he collected nearly every award imaginable. He’s instantly the best guard on Houston’s roster.

3. Cleveland Cavaliers – Evan Mobley, Big, USC

There isn't much separation at the top of the draft among the "Big 3," and Mobley could easily go first. Mobley could probably play alongside Jarrett Allen in Cleveland, and with his quick feet and 7-foot-6 wingspan, he’s capable of defending every frontcourt position. His foul rate per 40 minutes at USC was 2.1. Anthony Davis was at 2.4 in his lone season in Lexington, DeAndre Ayton was 2.8 in Arizona, and Zion Williamson was 2.8 at Duke. A non-defender such as Karl Anthony-Towns posted a 5.6 in one season at Kentucky. I wouldn’t fight you if you called Mobley a unicorn.

4. Toronto Raptors – Jalen Suggs, Guard, Gonzaga

Suggs was not only an elite basketball prospect in high school (three state titles in three years), but he also was the QB of a football team that won a state title. A cerebral leader, he’s for sure the fourth-best player in the draft, only a notch behind the top three because there are some questions about whether he can create his shot easily at the next level. I’d project him as more Chauncey Billups than Deron Williams.

5. Orlando Magic – Scottie Barnes, Wing, Florida State

If you watch the FSU-Michigan tape from the NCAA Tournament, you’re puzzled by the lack of offense from Barnes and wondering if he’s Ben Simmons minus some of the athleticism. Barnes shot 27% from deep. Can Orlando really draft a non-shooter to play with Markelle Fultz?

6. Oklahoma City Thunder – Jonathan Kuminga, Wing, G League

He’s still very raw and a couple of years away from being a contributor on a team contending for a playoff spot. GM Sam Presti has enough job security that if someone taken after Kuminga pops in a big way — say, Tyrese Haliburton going 12th in 2020 and making first team All-Rookie — he still won’t be fired.

7. Golden State Warriors – Moses Moody, Wing, Arkansas

Regardless of what happens on the trade front, the Warriors need a scorer. Moody ranked No. 1 in the 2021 draft class in ball screen efficiency. He averaged 1.194 points per possession as a pick-and-roll ball handler, scoring on 58% of those possessions, according to his coach, Eric Musselman.

8. Orlando Magic – Alperen Sengun, F/C, Turkey

This is where you start to decide about picking the best player or drafting for need. The Magic frontcourt is defensive-minded, with Wendell Carter and Mo Bamba getting the chance to earn a second contract. Sengun averaged 19.0 points and 8.7 RPG as an 18-year old in Turkey.

9. Sacramento Kings – Franz Wagner, Forward, Michigan

The Kings will have a frontcourt opening if they lose Richaun Holmes in free agency, and Wagner is capable of playing alongside Marvin Bagley.

10. New Orleans Pelicans – Corey Kispert, Wing, Gonzaga

I’m obsessed with what the Pelicans are going to do as they push forward with "Operation Keep Zion." Kispert’s numbers (44% 3-point shooting) might have been inflated against inferior competition in the WCC, but surrounding Zion with shooting is the top priority this offseason.

11. Charlotte Hornets – Josh Giddey, Guard, NBL (Australia)

Giddey makes everyone better and plays smart basketball. You put him on the floor with Gordon Hayward and LaMelo Ball, and you’ve got a high-IQ basketball team.

12. San Antonio Spurs – Jalen Johnson, Forward, Duke

Their top scorer (DeRozan) is a free agent. Their top scoring reserve (Rudy Gay) is a free agent. Veteran backup point guard Patty Mills is also a free agent. The best player available might be somewhere there’s no current need (Davion Mitchell). There’s also need for wing scoring, and Johnson might be able to thrive in San Antonio’s great culture.

13. Indiana Pacers – Davion Mitchell, Guard, Baylor

The analytics crowd isn’t enamored with Mitchell because his first two years at Baylor were nothing special. Was his leap as a junior — 44% on 3-pointers and 5.5 assists — an outlier or a sign of things to come for the 22-year-old?

14. Golden State Warriors – Chris Duarte, Wing, Oregon

Oregon players keep being undervalued in the draft yet become productive pros: Chris Boucher, Dillon Brooks, Payton Pritchard. The 6-foot-6 Duarte, who is 24, was one of the best wing defenders in the country, and he made 40% of his 3-pointers. He’ll have an immediate impact.

15. Washington Wizards – James Bouknight, Wing, Connecticut

By all accounts, he has had the best individual workout of anyone in the top 20 so far, shooting so well that you almost forget he made only 29% from deep last season with the Huskies. He’d certainly crack the Wizards' rotation next year. He’s also solid insurance in the event Bradley Beal demands a trade.

16. Oklahoma City Thunder – Usman Garuba, Forward, Real Madrid

With three picks in the top 20, it’s safe to assume the Thunder will stash at least one pick overseas and let this player marinate.

17. Memphis Grizzlies – Keon Johnson, Guard, Tennessee

The top-10 buzz seems a bit ridiculous, but let’s not forget that Patrick Williams went third overall in 2020, and he came off the bench for Florida State. Williams was pegged as a 3-and-D wing. Johnson still fits into the "great athlete, figure out the rest later" category.

18. Oklahoma City Thunder – Isaiah Jackson, F/C, Kentucky

No change. For now, he’s primarily a shot-blocker (he averaged 2.6 blocks in 20 minutes a night) without many offensive moves. But with strong measurables and a lot of upside, it wouldn’t surprise me if Jackson were starting on a team devoid of centers by the All-Star break.

19. New York Knicks – Cam Thomas, Guard, LSU

What was New York’s problem in the playoff loss to Atlanta? Points were tough to come by. Cam Thomas is in the Vinnie Johnson/Jamal Crawford instant-offense mold off the bench. A back of Thomas and Immanuel Quickley has electric offensive potential.

20. Atlanta Hawks – Sharife Cooper, Guard, Auburn

No change. The 39% shooting and 22% on 3-pointers are red flags, but the 82% on free throws alleviates some of those concerns.

21. New York Knicks – Miles McBride, Guard, West Virginia

This name keeps coming up as pro-ready. Another former high school QB, and oh yeah, he has a 6-foot-8 wingspan while standing 6-foot-2 and hit 41% on 3-pointers.

22. Los Angeles Lakers – Ziaire Williams, Wing, Stanford

Who is the real Ziaire Williams? The guy who was a consensus top-10 recruit his final two years of high school? Or the guy who struggled through an up-and-down season at Stanford? Williams scored 19 in his first career game against a strong Alabama team. Later, he had a triple-double vs. Washington.

23. Houston Rockets – Jared Butler, Guard, Baylor

Butler is one of the most difficult players to peg in the first round because of his health issue, but he was cleared over the weekend to play in the NBA. He was much more consistent the past two seasons at Baylor than his teammate Davion Mitchell. Butler would be a steal this low.

24. Houston Rockets – Kai Jones, C, Texas

No change. If the Rockets don’t get Evan Mobley at No. 2, they will spend the 23rd or 24th pick on a big man. The Big 12 Sixth Man of the Year improved dramatically in nearly every statistical category from his freshman to sophomore season.

25. LA Clippers – Tre Mann, Guard, Florida

I’m not bothered by the slow release or the fact that the Clippers already have a rising wing named Terance Mann. But Tre Mann can contribute in the backcourt for a team that’s going to be missing Kawhi Leonard until at least the All-Star break.

26. Denver Nuggets – Jaden Springer, Guard, Tennessee

The Nuggets will be without Jamal Murray until after the All-Star break, and given the fact that guards Will Barton, Markus Howard and Austin Rivers are all free agents, they need to draft a shooting guard.

27. Brooklyn Nets – Bones Hyland, Guard, VCU

The Nets don’t need prospects. They need plug-and-play reserves who are going to spot start some games for Kyrie Irving and James Harden in the dog days of January and February. Hyland turns 21 in September and was the Atlantic 10 Player of the Year.

28. Philadelphia 76ers – Trey Murphy, Wing, Virginia

Yes, he can shoot. No, he’s not Mikal Bridges. The Rice transfer averaged 11.3 PPG and shot 43% from deep last season. He topped 20 points once, but then again, he took only 7.6 shots per game. This is a talented player who has wowed teams in workouts but can go long stretches of actual games without impacting the result (36 minutes, 2-for-2 shooting vs. Duke).

29. Phoenix Suns – Ayo Dosunmu, Guard, Illinois

No change. It was sad to watch Chris Paul’s play decline as the Finals wore on, and he’s turning 37 next season during the playoffs. From Dosunmu’s work ethic to his defense to his frame, if you squint, he could turn into a player who destroyed the Suns in Game 5 of the Finals: Jrue Holiday.

30. Utah Jazz – Josh Christopher, guard, Arizona State

There are a few guards in the mix at this spot — Quentin Grimes of Houston, Josh Primo of Alabama (youngest player in the draft) — but I landed on Christopher because of his aggressive scoring ability. He played only 15 games as a freshman but topped 20 points three times, and two of them came against high-level competition (Villanova and UCLA).

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports gambling analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.