College Football Playoff Bracket: How Each Team Could Win a National Title

In the end, the drama of this year's College Football Playoff bracket reveal boiled down to three teams fighting for two spots. Would Alabama be left out for laying an egg against Georgia in the SEC Championship Game? Would Miami (Fla.) finally leapfrog Notre Dame after beating the Fighting Irish head-to-head earlier this season? Those are the questions everyone wanted answered.

The selection committee valued Alabama's season-long body of work by keeping the Crimson Tide at No. 9, and the committee also agreed that Miami's win over Notre Dame couldn't be ignored any longer. The Fighting Irish found themselves on the wrong side of the bubble.

[MORE: College Football Playoff Odds: No. 1 Indiana isn't the favorite]

With that debate finally settled — albeit unsatisfactorily to supporters of Notre Dame — it's back to football instead of résumés. What a delicious CFP this should be in a season when nobody, perhaps aside from Indiana, can consider itself infallible. 

With that in mind, here's how each of the 12 teams can win this year's national championship.

12. James Madison

Record: 12-1 overall, 8-0 Sun Belt
Best win: 31-14 victory over Troy on Dec. 5
Worst loss: 28-14 defeat to Louisville on Sept. 5

Playoff path: A brutal run for the 12-seed begins with a road game at No. 5 Oregon. If the Dukes survive, they'll face one of the hottest teams in the country in No. 4 Texas Tech. 

Outlook: The last team in this year’s CFP field was James Madison, who cheered heartily when Duke secured an overtime interception against then-No. 19 Virginia in the ACC title game that bumped the Cavaliers out of the picture. 

Think about the run James Madison has had in recent years, beginning with the transition from FCS to FBS in 2022 under former coach Curt Cignetti, now the head coach at Indiana. The Dukes won eight games during their first season in the Sun Belt and 11 in their second, at which point Cignetti left to take over the Hoosiers. 

In came Bob Chesney, formerly the head coach at Holy Cross from 2018-23, and the JMU hardly missed a beat with 21 wins over the past two seasons and now a spot in the CFP. The leadership and on-field product have been so strong that Chesney was already named the next coach at UCLA, a post he’ll officially take once JMU’s postseason run concludes. The school is now viewed as such a strong launching pad that it immediately hired former Florida coach Billy Napier, who was only unemployed for approximately six weeks.

How have the current Dukes done it? With an offense that is tied with Ole Miss for 10th nationally in scoring at 37.3 points per game. With a dual-threat quarterback in Alonza Barnett III, who has thrown for 2,533 yards, run for 544 yards and accounted for 35 total touchdowns. With a defense that is tied for 10th in scoring at 15.8 points per game and ranks second overall at 247.6 yards per game. This is a complete football team. 

11. Tulane

Record: 11-2 overall, 7-1 American 
Best win: 34-21 victory over then-No. 24 North Texas on Dec. 5
Worst loss: 48-26 defeat to UTSA on Oct. 30 

Playoff path: The Green Wave were pummeled by Ole Miss earlier this season, 45-10. Perhaps things will be different now that Rebels' head coach Lane Kiffin is at LSU. The winner faces No. 3 Georgia with one of the hottest defenses around.

Outlook: It’s jarring to think about how much the trajectory of Tulane’s season might have changed once BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff withdrew from school in early July when facing a lengthy suspension for violating the school’s honor code. Retzlaff, whose career also included two previous seasons at two different California junior colleges, decided to enter the transfer portal for a third time and joined Tulane in early August for training camp. 

Fast-forward to the present, and Retzlaff has thrown for 2,862 yards and 14 touchdowns, while also rushing for 610 yards and a career-high 16 additional scores. The Green Wave notched impressive non-conference victories over Northwestern (23-3) and Duke (34-27) that aged quite well as the season progressed and won five additional games by double digits. That was enough for head coach Jon Sumrall, a rising star after winning 43 of his first 54 games at Tulane and Troy, to replace Napier at Florida. Sumrall will remain with the Green Wave through the CFP.

For Tulane to make a run toward the national title — which would begin with avenging a lopsided loss to Ole Miss earlier this year — it will need to maintain the same impressive turnover margin that kept it afloat all season. The Green Wave are tied for eighth nationally in takeaways with 24 (15 interceptions, nine fumble recoveries) and enter the CFP 11th in turnover margin at plus-10, which is third among the field behind Texas Tech and Indiana (both plus-17). 

Miami head coach Mario Cristobal signals to his players vs. South Florida at Hard Rock Stadium on Saturday, September 13, 2025. (Al Diaz/Miami Herald/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)

10. Miami (Fla.)

Record: 10-2 overall, 6-2 ACC
Best win: 27-24 victory over then-No. 6 Notre Dame on Aug. 31
Worst loss: 26-20 OT defeat to SMU on Nov. 1

Playoff path: An ironic opening-round game pits No. 10 Miami against No. 7 Texas A&M in a matchup of the only two teams to beat Notre Dame this season. Waiting in the wings is a trip to the Cotton Bowl to face No. 2 Ohio State, which is an enticing proposition for the in-state Aggies. 

Outlook: What a long and sleepless weekend this must have been for Miami head coach Mario Cristobal, who fielded the ACC’s most talented team in back-to-back seasons and came within a whisker of failing to reach the CFP both times. Had the selection committee opted to include Notre Dame over Miami on Sunday afternoon, Cristobal and his staff would have lamented their stunning loss to SMU for quite some time. 

Instead, the Hurricanes punched their ticket on the strength of a season-opening win over then-No. 6 Notre Dame and lopsided victories against then-No. 18 South Florida and then-No. 22 Pitt on an otherwise barren schedule. There were moments this season — especially early — when Miami looked like one of the best teams in the country, if not a legitimate national title favorite. Offense was never a problem for the Hurricanes in 2024, when eventual first overall NFL pick Cam Ward guided them to 10 victories; it was the defense that became Miami’s undoing, as it finished tied for 68th nationally in scoring at 25.3 points per game. 

Cristobal and his staff made several splashy additions in the transfer portal on that side of the ball, finding five plug-and-play starters. They’ve fit beautifully around Miami’s edge-rushing combination of Reuben Bain Jr. (58 pressures, 4.5 sacks) and Akheem Mesidor (44 pressures, 7.0 sacks) that is among the best in the country. The addition of former Georgia quarterback Carson Beck gives the Hurricanes an experienced leader who's unafraid of big moments. 

9. Alabama

Record: 10-3 overall, 7-1 SEC
Best win: 24-21 victory over then-No. 5 Georgia on Sept. 27
Worst loss: 31-17 defeat to Florida State on Aug. 30

Playoff path: Alabama was upended by Oklahoma earlier this season and will have a chance to avenge that loss in the first round. Whichever team wins is heading to the Rose Bowl to face No. 1 Indiana in a matchup of blue blood vs. new blood. 

Outlook: Perhaps the most controversial entrant in this year’s field, Alabama has plenty to fix after getting walloped by Georgia in Saturday's SEC title game. The Crimson Tide defense couldn’t stop the run, as the Bulldogs rumbled for 141 yards and a touchdown while controlling the clock for nearly 37 minutes. Alabama's offense finished with minus-3 rushing yards and only converted three times on 14 third-down attempts. The performance was shoddy enough to where many across college football were calling for the Crimson Tide to be left out of the CFP entirely. 

However, Alabama is in because the rest of its résumé is largely exceptional, headlined by a string of four consecutive wins over then-No. 5 Georgia, then-No. 16 Vanderbilt, then-No. 14 Missouri and then-No. 18 Tennessee. Those wins flashed this group’s potential under second-year head coach Kalen DeBoer. 

At its best, Alabama’s vertical passing attack is among the most dynamic in college football, as quarterback Ty Simpson (3,268 yards, 26 touchdowns) spread the ball to five different playmakers with at least 340 receiving yards this season. The wide receiver trio of Germie Bernard (762 yards, seven touchdowns), Ryan Williams (631 yards, four touchdowns) and Isaiah Horton (430 yards, eight touchdowns) is among the deepest and most talented in the country. The passing game will need to carry an offense that has been unbalanced all season and ranks 117th nationally in rushing. 

8. Oklahoma

Record: 10-2 overall, 6-2 SEC
Best win: 23-21 victory over then-No. 4 Alabama on Nov. 15
Worst loss: 23-6 defeat to Texas on Oct. 11

Playoff path: Can OU beat Alabama for a second time? That's the challenge facing head coach Brent Venables in the opening round. The Sooners might fancy their defense in a potential quarterfinal matchup with No. 1 Indiana. 

Outlook: Given that Oklahoma was No. 8 in the penultimate CFP rankings last week, the Sooners could kick their feet up during conference championship weekend knowing they’d already done enough to make the field. Nothing that happened in the SEC title game or elsewhere could prevent Venables & Co. from reaching the CFP for the first time since 2019 under former coach Lincoln Riley. But that didn’t mean Oklahoma’s unusual résumé was immune from dissection by fans and pundits alike, with former Alabama head coach Nick Saban questioning the Sooners moments before the bracket was revealed Sunday afternoon.

On one hand, Oklahoma has more impressive victories than almost anyone else in the 12-team field after beating then-No. 15 Michigan, then-No. 14 Tennessee, then-No. 4 Alabama and then-No. 22 Missouri. Its only losses amid a brutal schedule came against Texas, which finished No. 13 in the final rankings, and fellow CFP participant Ole Miss. That said, the Sooners are potentially the most one-sided team in the field given the schism between their elite defense and ugly offense. Oklahoma will enter the CFP ranked ninth nationally in total defense (273.6 yards per game) and seventh in scoring defense (13.9 points per game) — a feather in Venables’ cap after he reclaimed play-calling duties this season. But the Sooners only sit 78th in scoring offense (26.4 points per game) and 90th in total offense (359.1 yards per game). 

Oklahoma will need more balance to win it all. 

Texas A&M QB Marcel Reed throws a pass against Texas at Texas Memorial Stadium on November 28, 2025. (Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images)

7. Texas A&M

Record: 11-1 overall, 7-1 SEC
Best win: 41-40 victory over then-No. 8 Notre Dame on Sept. 13
Worst loss: 27-17 defeat to then-No. 16 Texas on Nov. 28

Playoff path: The Aggies can certainly make an argument that they should have been ranked at No. 6 ahead of Ole Miss, which would have given them a more favorable matchup with No. 11 Tulane. Instead, the Aggies will need to beat two of the most talented teams in the country (Miami and Ohio State) if they want to reach the semifinals.

Outlook: The Aggies entered their regular-season finale against Texas unbeaten and on the cusp of reaching the SEC title game only to fall flat in the second half by allowing 24 points in an eventual double-digit loss. Was that merely a blip on the radar against an in-state rival fighting for its CFP life? Or was it more in keeping with the near-disaster experienced by Texas A&M in its penultimate conference tilt against unranked South Carolina, which built a 30-3 halftime lead before the Aggies eventually roared to life? 

Those are some of the questions head coach Mike Elko and his staff must answer in the coming weeks as Texas A&M chases the program’s first national title since 1939. 

To get there, the Aggies will lean on a high-scoring offense (36.3 points per game) that revolves around dual-threat quarterback Marcel Reed, a second-year starter. Reed has thrown for 2,932 yards, rushed for 466 yards and accounted for 31 total touchdowns while blossoming under offensive coordinator Collin Klein, another of the many coaches juggling multiple jobs this postseason after being named head coach at Kansas State, his alma mater. The Aggies have one of the better receiving tandems in the country with wideouts Mario Craver and KC Concepcion — transfers from Mississippi State and NC State, respectively — both topping 50 catches and 800 receiving yards, burning defenses with yards after the catch. 

Texas A&M’s loss to Texas in late November was just the second time it had failed to score 30 points in a game this season. 

6. Ole Miss

Record: 11-1 overall, 7-1 SEC
Best win: 34-26 victory over then-No. 13 Oklahoma on Oct. 25
Worst loss: 43-35 loss to then-No. 9 Georgia on Oct. 18 

Playoff path: With everything that's swirled around Ole Miss in recent weeks, the Rebels likely feel pretty good about an opening-round matchup with a team they already crushed in September. It's set up for a juicy rematch between Ole Miss and No. 3 Georgia in the quarterfinals.

Outlook: Now that the bracket has been revealed, one of the most fascinating storylines in this year’s CFP is what Ole Miss will look like without ex-head coach Lane Kiffin, who left for the same job at LSU in a messy, high-profile divorce that precluded him from coaching the Rebels this postseason. Though Kiffin wasn’t the team’s primary playcaller — that responsibility belongs to offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr., who will eventually migrate to LSU after the CFP — he had significant influence on the system given his pedigree as one of the most respected offensive minds in the sport.

And what an offense the Rebels had this season behind dual-threat quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, a former Division II standout-turned-superhero at Ole Miss with 3,016 passing yards, 470 rushing yards and 24 total touchdowns — all despite beginning the year No. 2 on the Rebels’ depth chart. He and tailback Kewan Lacy (1,279 yards and 20 touchdowns) spearhead a unit that is tied for 10th nationally in scoring at 37.3 points per game and ranks third in total offense at 498.1 yards per game. Then-No. 4 LSU and Washington State were the only teams to hold the Rebels below 30 points this season. 

Once Kiffin decided to leave, Ole Miss moved quickly to elevate defensive coordinator Pete Golding into the full-time role for stability’s stake. Time will tell if the program’s dream season gets disrupted by so much change. 

5. Oregon

Record: 11-1 overall, 8-1 Big Ten
Best win: 42-27 victory over then-No. 15 USC on Nov. 22
Worst loss: 30-20 defeat to then-No. 7 Indiana on Oct. 11 

Playoff path: The Ducks will love their chances against 12-seed JMU at home, which requires the Dukes to make a cross-country flight. After that, it's a potential battle of NIL might between Oregon and 4-seed Texas Tech in the quarterfinals.

Outlook: What a tricky team to evaluate. Much like Ohio State, which was largely untested between its season-opening win against Texas and the Big Ten title game against Indiana, the Ducks navigated a fairly pedestrian slate by league standards. They never played Ohio State, never played Michigan, never played Illinois — three teams that spent most, or all, of this season in the AP Top 25 poll. They didn’t qualify for the conference title game, which would have guaranteed Oregon either a rematch with the Hoosiers or another marquee opponent in the Buckeyes. 

But, as with Ohio State, few people have doubted the Ducks’ overall quality, given how relentless head coach Dan Lanning is when it comes to player acquisition — both through the high school ranks and the transfer portal alike. There’s a reason why Oregon finished fifth in 247Sports' composite rankings for 2025. This year’s squad is anchored by a defense that ranks fourth overall (251.6 yards per game) and eighth in scoring (14.8 points per game) under coordinator Tosh Lupoi, who was recently named head coach at Cal but will continue with the Ducks through the CFP. 

The same holds true for Lupoi’s counterpart, offensive coordinator Will Stein, whom Kentucky plucked to be its next head coach. Stein’s group thrives on the three-headed rushing attack of Noah Whittington, Jordon Davison and Dierre Hill Jr. — all of whom have rushed for at least 480 yards and four touchdowns — in support of efficient quarterback Dante Moore, who ranks third nationally in completion rate at 72.5%. 

At some point, though, the Ducks will have to beat an elite opponent. And that might come against Texas Tech in what could be a mouthwatering quarterfinal. 

4. Texas Tech

Record: 12-1 overall, 8-1 Big 12
Best win: 34-7 victory over then-No. 11 BYU on Dec. 6
Worst loss: 26-22 defeat to Arizona State on Oct. 18 

Playoff path: While the Red Raiders certainly would have loved a home game, there's nothing wrong with an extra few weeks to rest. Texas Tech will likely face No. 5 Oregon in the second round in what could be a blockbuster game between two teams that excel in the modern world of player acquisition. 

Outlook: Because this is Texas Tech, a school that reveled in its first outright conference championship since 1955 on Saturday, there are still plenty of skeptics who question whether the Red Raiders are really as good as their record and statistics would indicate. After all, how could a program that slogged through decades of modest-to-middling success in a league like the Big 12 — which has never possessed the same gravitas or financial backing as conferences like the Big Ten and the SEC — transform into such a dominant force seemingly overnight? This weekend’s dismantling of BYU was the Red Raiders’ 12th victory by at least 20 points this season. 

Despite what outsiders might think, Texas Tech is emblematic of a modern success story in college football, a sport increasingly skewed by big-money donors, shrewd talent identification and relentless player-acquisition efforts. Fueled by billionaire booster Cody Campbell and tireless general manager James Blanchard, the Red Raiders retooled their roster by signing the No. 2 transfer portal class in the country, according to 247Sports, and spending big at premium positions along the offensive and defensive lines. 

Now, anyone who competes against Texas Tech must contend with a defense that ranks fourth in the country in tackles for loss (96) and is tied for fourth nationally in sacks (39.0). The offense, meanwhile, ranks third in scoring at 42.5 points per game and sits fifth in yards per game at 480.3 — ahead of every fellow CFP participant outside Ole Miss. This is a complete team. 

3. Georgia

Record: 12-1 overall, 7-1 SEC
Best win: 43-35 victory over then-No. 5 Ole Miss on Oct. 18
Worst loss: 24-21 defeat to then-No. 17 Alabama on Sept. 27

Playoff path: The Bulldogs are likely to face No. 6-seed Ole Miss in the quarterfinals, a rematch of the game they won at home earlier this year, but looming on the horizon is what could be a clash of the titans with No. 2 Ohio State in the semifinals. That game would include arguably the two most talented rosters in the country.

Outlook: Aside from Indiana, which remains unbeaten and just secured the single-best victory in college football this season, the Bulldogs will enter the CFP with more momentum than anyone. They’ve won nine straight games since losing at home to Alabama in late September — a loss Georgia emphatically avenged in the SEC Championship Game on Saturday evening, improving head coach Kirby Smart’s record to 2-7 against the Crimson Tide — and have blossomed into a well-balanced outfit that blends ball-control offense (third nationally in time of possession) with smothering defense (11th nationally in scoring). 

It’s the latter that makes Georgia a major threat in this year’s CFP. Ever since an ugly mid-season stretch in which the Bulldogs surrendered 10 touchdowns in three games, Smart’s group has calcified like his dominant defenses of old. Georgia only surrendered two total touchdowns to Texas, Charlotte, Georgia Tech and Alabama over the past month for a minuscule opponent scoring average of just 7.25 points per game. The Bulldogs are proving particularly stingy against the run and held those same four opponents to 128 rushing yards combined, including a stunning minus-3 for Alabama in the SEC title game. 

It’s difficult to imagine many teams toppling Georgia when its defense is playing at such a high level. That’s how Smart won back-to-back national titles in 2021 and 2022. 

Ohio State DE Kenyatta Jackson Jr. during the first quarter against Rutgers at Ohio Stadium on November 22, 2025. (Photo by Jason Mowry/Getty Images)

2. Ohio State

Record: 12-1 overall, 9-0 Big Ten 
Best win: 14-7 victory over then-No. 1 Texas on Aug. 30
Worst loss: 13-10 defeat to then-No. 2 Indiana on Dec. 6

Playoff path: The Buckeyes only slipped one spot after losing to Indiana in the Big Ten title game on Saturday night. They'll face the winner of No. 10 Miami against No. 7 Texas A&M, which means OSU will tangle with an ultra-talented roster regardless of who comes out on top. Could there be a potential rematch with No. 1 Indiana for the national championship?

Outlook: The hollow feeling surrounding Ohio State following Saturday’s loss to Indiana in the Big Ten championship is eerily similar to what the Buckeyes experienced following the 2024 regular season finale against Michigan, a crushing defeat that invited plenty of questions about the game plan, the play-calling and the team’s overall toughness entering the playoff. That group responded with an incredible postseason run that featured blowouts of No. 9 Tennessee (42-17) and No. 1 Oregon (41-21) in the opening rounds before pulling away from No. 5 Texas (28-14) in the semifinals and holding off No. 7 Notre Dame (34-23) in the national championship game. 

Whether this year’s team can do the same remains to be seen, of course, though it certainly felt like these Buckeyes were even more infallible until Indiana toppled them at Lucas Oil Stadium. Ohio State still has a likely Heisman Trophy finalist at quarterback in sophomore Julian Sayin. It still has the best wide receiver tandem in the sport with Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. It still has the best defense in the country — statistically speaking, anyway — led by four potential first-round picks in safety Caleb Downs, inside linebacker Sonny Styles, linebacker/edge rusher Arvell Reese and defensive tackle Kayden McDonald. 

The pieces are unquestionably there for Ohio State to win its second consecutive national championship, but can the Buckeyes muster the mental fortitude to get there after a gutting defeat to Indiana?

1. Indiana

Record: 13-0 overall, 9-0 Big Ten
Best win: 13-10 victory over then-No. 1 Ohio State on Dec. 6 
Worst loss: None

Playoff path: Beating Ohio State on Saturday night meant the Hoosiers distanced themselves from both the Buckeyes and Georgia in the CFP bracket. The only way they'll face either of those teams is in the national championship game. First, Indiana must contend with the winner of No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 8 Oklahoma.  

Outlook: There should be no more doubt, from anyone, about just how good this Indiana team really is after the Hoosiers out-toughed, out-coached and out-executed the Buckeyes in the Big Ten title game. Cignetti has now guided Indiana to a 24-2 record over the last two seasons with victories against Michigan, Penn State, Oregon and Ohio State during that span, entrenching his team in the league’s upper echelon. 

So why can’t the Hoosiers win the national title? 

They have this year’s Heisman Trophy frontrunner at quarterback in former Cal transfer Fernando Mendoza, whose surgical precision against the Buckeyes pried open a secondary that still leads the country in passing defense. They have a multi-headed rushing attack that churns out 221.2 yards per game, good enough for 11th nationally and fourth among teams from the power conferences. They have two NFL-caliber receivers in Elijah Sarratt and Omar Cooper Jr., though the latter exited Saturday’s game with an ankle injury. And they have a defense coordinated by Bryant Haines — who should be a shoo-in for the Broyles Award given to the sport’s best assistant coach — that was creative enough, disciplined enough and talented enough to stymie an Ohio State offense considered by many to be the most talented in college football. 

All told, that’s more than enough for Indiana to make a legitimate run at the first national championship in school history. 

Michael Cohen covers college football and college basketball for FOX Sports. Follow him at @Michael_Cohen13.

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