National Football League

Super Bowl LVIII MVP odds, picks: Mahomes favored, Purdy closing in

Updated Feb. 11, 2024 2:21 p.m. ET

With one game to go, Patrick Mahomes is at the top of the Super Bowl MVP oddsboard.

However, one of his teammates has seen his odds shorten in recent days — and it shouldn't be hard to guess who.

"Travis Kelce is getting bet hard, only behind Mahomes in handle," said Tom Gable, director of race and sports at the Borgata Hotel Casino in Atlantic City, N.J.

Kelce's odds to win SB MVP have shifted to +1700 from +2100 after he caught 11 passes for 116 yards and a touchdown in the AFC Championship Game.

After a week of hype about Kelce and Taylor Swift, his odds dropped to +1400.

"He is currently 14-1 here to win MVP — opened at 16-1," Gable said. "In the AFC championship round and the divisional round, Kelce's props were getting bet to the Over and were certainly taking a great deal of handle. Tough to say if there is any effect on it from the Taylor Swift angle. Remember, we are very early in this and a large portion of the handle will come in closer to the game. But for the Super Bowl, I wouldn't be surprised in the least if you get people coming in to bet on him who don't normally bet. It will be magnified 100-fold due to it being the Super Bowl with all of the lead-in and hype."

Coming into conference championship weekend, Jackson was the +220 betting favorite.

Mahomes was third at +440, but moved to +130 after the win, before landing at +140 on Wednesday and shifting to +145 on Saturday.

San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy saw his odds move to +220 from +330 after the 49ers beat the Detroit Lions in the NFC Championship Game.

Looking for a non-QB to back outside of Kelce?

San Francisco running back Christian McCaffrey has the lowest odds among non-QBs at +450, shortening from +480.

Ready to make a wager on Super Bowl MVP? Here are the latest odds as Super Bowl LVIII looms on Sunday, with picks from FOX Sports' Sam Panayotovich, Geoff Schwartz and a long-shot pick from Jason McIntyre.

SUPER BOWL LVIII MVP ODDS: *

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs: +150 (bet $10 to win $25 total)
Brock Purdy, 49ers: +210 (bet $10 to win $31 total)
Christian McCaffrey, 49ers: +450 (bet $10 to win $56 total)
Travis Kelce, Chiefs: +1400 (bet $10 to win $150 total)
Isiah Pacheco, Chiefs: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Deebo Samuel, 49ers: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers: +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total)
Rashee Rice, Chiefs: +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total)
George Kittle, 49ers: +7500 (bet $10 to win $760 total)

* odds as of 2/11/2024

How close is Patrick Mahomes to GOAT status?

Schwartz expects Mahomes to have a big game in the Big Game.

If San Francisco decides to pass the ball, the Niners could run into some issues, as Kansas City's pass defense could take over the game. Also, the Chiefs defensive line will have an advantage over every 49ers offensive lineman not named Trent Williams.

"Ultimately, the Chiefs have too many advantages, and you can still get them at plus money to win the game outright. Mahomes to win MVP, +200 at some books, is worth a wager."

PICK: Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl LVIII MVP (+200 at time of pick, bet $10 to win $30 total)

Panayotovich said for his money, he'd take McCaffrey at +850 (at time of pick).

"San Francisco has the easiest path to the Super Bowl of any remaining team. … McCaffrey touches the ball 20 times per game on average, and his ability to run and receive gives him a variety of ways to impact the game. And if the Niners do what they're supposed to do, he'll be around 3-1 or 4-1 on the final Sunday of the season. Take the plunge now."

Fellow FOX Sports betting analyst Will Hill said Purdy is the best bet.

"There are some markets where you can strike gold and find winning bets at incredibly long odds. I don't think Super Bowl MVP is generally one of them, at least not this year," Hill said. "Super Bowl MVP is pretty straightforward. This award has gone to the quarterback of the winning team 10 of the last 14 times, and I think Purdy has a solid shot to make it 11 out of 15."

PICK: Christian McCaffrey Super Bowl LVIII MVP (+850 at time of pick, bet $10 to win $95 total)

49ers-Chiefs will meet in Super Bowl, a rematch from four seasons ago

McIntyre has a long-shot pick: Kansas City defensive end George Karlaftis (+49000).

"He is tied for the team lead in sacks this season (10.5) and leads the team in sacks this postseason (2.5), as well as tackles for loss (3)," McIntyre said. "Most importantly, Karlaftis will be going head-to-head with Colton McKivitz, who has been just average all season.

"If Karlaftis picks up 2.5 sacks, the Chiefs win an ugly 13-10 game and neither offense tops 350 yards … why not the young edge guy from Purdue?

"This is definitely worth a sprinkle."

PICK: George Karlaftis Super Bowl LVIII MVP (+49000, bet $10 to win $4,910 total)

Here's some MVP info from previous Super Bowls:

– Quarterbacks have won the award 32 times, led by former New England Patriots and Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (five).

– Wide receivers have won the award eight times, followed by running backs (seven).

– Four linebackers have won the award, the most among defensive players. They are: Chuck Howley of the Dallas Cowboys (Super Bowl V), Ray Lewis of the Baltimore Ravens (Super Bowl XXXV), Malcolm Smith of the Seattle Seahawks (Super Bowl XLVIII) and Von Miller of the Denver Broncos (Super Bowl 50).

– The lone kick/punt returner to win the award was Desmond Howard of the Green Bay Packers (Super Bowl XXXI).

– Teammates shared the award once — Dallas defensive linemen Harvey Martin and Randy White (Super Bowl XII).

– Only one MVP played for the losing team — Howley, who intercepted two passes in the Cowboys' 16-13 loss to the Baltimore Colts in Super Bowl V.

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