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10 MLB storylines to track in second half of 2023 season
The wait is over. We’re turning our attention to the second half of the year, facing a season that should offer plenty of twists, turns, upsets and excitement to fill our competitive baseball appetite.
No more eye-roll-inducing statements like, "it’s still early" or, "let’s see how things shake out," from players and front-office members alike. The pressure is on, the heat is being turned up. This is when things get real.
With that being said, there are several storylines we’re looking forward to in the second half of the season. They range from Shohei Ohtani’s future to Aaron Judge’s questionable return to which teams will be buyers and sellers, with no shortage of drama and interest in between. Let’s dive in.
1. Will Ohtani complete the greatest season of all time?
Ohtani’s 32 home runs in 91 games indicate the two-way phenom is on track to finish with around 60 homers on the season. He’s expected to challenge Judge’s American League record 62 home runs and command free-agent offers like no other. It is of course in Ohtani’s best interests to stay on the field and perform at his peak in his walk year while the Angels try to convince him to stay in Anaheim and play for a contending team. While the Angels hang around in the wild-card race (more on that situation later), Ohtani’s once-in-a-lifetime ability to draw attention and excitement should only aid his on-field antics.
Keep an eye on Ohtani particularly at the outset of the second half of the season while the designated hitter holds the most home runs, highest OPS (1.050) and highest slugging percentage (.663) in MLB. He needs to improve his home run pace (currently around one homer every three games) to reach the 60-home run mark. As for pitching, it will be interesting to see if Ohtani can get back into the Cy Young race and continue to lead the majors in batting average against (.189), win the AL strikeout crown (his 132 Ks are 21 behind Kevin Gausman) and lower his 3.32 ERA into the sub-3.00s, if not approach last year's 2.33 mark. But even if he just maintains his current output, there's only one historical comp for what he's doing: him.
2023 MLB All-Star Game: Angels' Shohei Ohtani is rewriting MLB history
2. Will Aaron Judge return from injury this season?
It’s simply disastrous for the sport when a dynamic baseball giant like Judge goes down and misses extended time due to injury. The same goes for electric players like Edwin Díaz, who is not close to closing games again for the Mets. But Judge’s injury situation is different from Diaz’s in that the Yankees are advertising there’s still a chance the MVP slugger returns this year, at least to the plate. When exactly that could happen is anyone’s guess. We might have better odds playing the lottery.
3. Will Luis Arráez hit .400?
Already, Arráez has accomplished a feat no other player has since the 2000 season by finishing the first half above .380. Currently sitting at .383, the Venezuelan begins the second half with his sights set on .400. No player has done it over a full season since Ted Williams in 1941. Let that sink in: Arráez is looking to become the first player in 82 years to hit .400. That challenge is difficult enough on its own, but when we factor in the triple-digit heaters and exhaustive breakdowns opposing teams have on Arráez, the undertaking becomes that much more daunting.
History says Arráez may fall short of .400, but it’s not as if we’re talking about a player enjoying a lucky season, or one who may come back down to earth. He's the reigning American League batting champion (and also in line to become the first player to win consecutive batting titles in different leagues). After being dealt this past offseason by the Twins to the Marlins, Arráez hasn’t slowed down or given any reason to believe that will happen. But with .400 actually in reach, will the pressure become a privilege or hindrance?
4. Will the Mets and Padres finish as the worst teams money could buy?
The Mets and Padres represent two of the three richest payrolls this year, coming in at No. 1 and No. 3 respectively. And yet, both clubs are major disappointments, and possibly even sellers, as they enter the second half. Nobody saw it coming, with combined star-studded rosters that feature the likes of Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo, and Fernando Tatís Jr., Juan Soto, Yu Darvish, Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts. Those are just the headliners.
The 2023 season, for both teams, appears to be circling the drain just a few weeks out from the trade deadline. At the same time, the star power on each roster indicates the Mets and Padres could turn it around soon by going on the run we all expected them to when the season started. Still, the dramatic downfalls for each club are startling.
Per FanGraphs, when the season began, the Mets had a 77% chance of making the playoffs and an 8% chance of winning it all, while the Padres's odds were 85% and 11%, respectively. Post-All-Star break, FanGraphs gives the Mets a 14% chance of earning a postseason berth and 1% chance of winning the World Series. The Padres are at 32% and 3.5%. Oh, how the mighty have fallen.
5. Which arms will the Dodgers add?
Los Angeles owns the eighth-worst bullpen ERA in baseball, which actually marks an improvement from a few weeks ago and fails to aptly characterize just how leaky and overworked those relief arms really are. The Dodgers’ entire Opening Day rotation has seen some amount of time on the injured list, leading to a 4.55 ERA among its starters, good for 19th in MLB. The inconsistency from the Dodgers' staff has been surprising, to say the least. And yet, this club is still among the favorites to win the World Series, behind only the Atlanta Braves.
It’s hard to imagine this current version of the Dodgers being a true threat in October, despite their projected odds to win the World Series sitting at 12.7%. They're clearly going to add reinforcements to this roster to ensure October contention. At the same time … the Dodgers are the favorites to land Ohtani this winter. That creates a conundrum about whether to go big at the deadline and part with top prospects to fill their pitching holes with splash additions, or just wait for the unicorn to hopefully gallop north on the 5 freeway. Their farm is so loaded that these paths aren't mutually exclusive, so it will be interesting to see which route L.A. takes in the coming weeks.
6. Which bats will the Yankees add?
Just as the Dodgers are in need of arms, it’s not a matter of if but when the Bronx Bombers strengthen their offense with a big (preferably left-handed) bat or two. Yankee Stadium’s short porch in right field is a left-handed-hitter’s dream and New York’s roster needs more pull-happy players not named Anthony Rizzo, Billy McKinney, Willie Calhoun or Jake Bauers. If the Padres continue to free-fall in the weeks leading up to the Aug. 1 trade deadline, it would be silly for them to not make at least one star left-handed hitter available.
"I do believe that the San Diego Padres could get hot and really make some waves in the National League West," Derek Jeter said Tuesday on FOX Sports. "But if they don’t … I wouldn’t mind seeing the Yankees go out and get Juan Soto. You don’t know how long Judge is going to be out. They need some offense. I think it makes sense."
From the Captain’s mouth to the Yankees’ ears.
Gerrit Cole talks to Derek Jeter, David Ortiz and Alex Rodriguez
7. Will the Angels stay in contention (for the playoffs and Ohtani)?
Arte Moreno’s Angels have been under the microscope from the moment he decided to sell, and then un-sell, the team, all while his brass put together its most competitive squad in almost a decade. It's been 20 years since Moreno bought the franchise for $183.5 million and 21 years since its lone World Series appearance and title. For the majority of the 2023 season, the Angels finally looked primed to contend. Alas, injuries have started to trickle in.
Ohtani (finger blister), Mike Trout (fractured hamate bone) and Anthony Rendon (shin contusion) are all ailing. That’s on top of an Angels offense already missing infielders Zach Neto, Brandon Drury and Gio Urshela, as well as catchers Logan O'Hoppe and Max Stassi. Despite the extensive bumps and bruises, the club enters the second half five games out of the wild-card race with just a few teams to leapfrog.
If the Angels can somehow scratch and claw their way into the playoffs, they might have a legitimate chance of convincing their two-way superstar to stay in Anaheim. Ohtani wants to play for a winning team yesterday, and the Angels becoming one while already providing him comfort otherwise could create a wrinkle in his free agency. As things stand for the Angles, re-signing him still seems as unlikely as trading him before the deadline. But we all win if we get Ohtani and Trout finally teaming up for an October run.
8. Will the Cardinals be sellers?
OK, it’s hard to answer that question in any other way than "duh," as St. Louis slumps into the second half 11.5 games behind the first-place Reds and 11 games back in the wild-card race. At this point, the Cards would need collapses from several teams just to get into the conversation. That’s a bleak place to be.
But will one of the most consistently competitive franchises in the sport actually conduct a fire sale? The stars they could deal to contending teams might lay the groundwork for a reboot. No, we’re not talking about Paul Goldschmidt — unless St. Louis president of baseball operations John Mozeliak wants a full reset. But Nolan Arenado recently saying he's bracing for possibly being traded raised antennas. Beyond him, the Cardinals have intriguing walk-year candidates they could deal while vying for contention next year, including pitchers Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty and Jordan Hicks. Shortstop Paul DeJong and rehabbing outfielder Tyler O’Neill are also worth keeping an eye on.
9. Can Ronald Acuña Jr. go 40/70?
Acuña is so clearly running away with the NL MVP that we won’t bother to even list that as a "race." But we are looking forward to when — not if — Acuña not only becomes the first 30/50 player since Barry Bonds in 1990, and whether he can push the limit and go 40/70.
Acuña, who's sitting at 21 home runs and 41 stolen bases to open the second half, might reach 30/50 before September. That’s even more incredible when considering only two players in history have ever done it (Bonds and Eric Davis in 1987) over a full season. Interestingly, Bonds and Davis achieved 30/50 in their age-25 seasons, and Acuña is currently in his age-25 campaign.
At this rate, Acuña is projected to finish the year with an unprecedented 38 home runs and 74 stolen bases. It’s easier to believe he can keep up, or even improve, his home run rate in the hotter months of July and August. But I wonder if he'll slow down on the bases, if only because the contending Braves need Acuña to stay healthy in October, and swiping bags (under an injury threat, à la Ozzie Albies last year) in unimportant September games could hinder their title aspirations. But if Atlanta continues to let Acuña fly, expect to see some history.
10. Who'll win the home run and Cy Young races?
The field is wide open for each of these pursuits coming out of the All-Star break. The home run race certainly offers some intriguing names, including Ohtani leading all of MLB with 32 dingers. Trailing him is NL leader Matt Olson with 29 and then Luis Robert, Mookie Betts and Alonso with 26. If Ohtani stays healthy, it's hard to see him not finishing first.
As for the Cy Young, it remains eyebrow-raising that Gerrit Cole has yet to lock down the honor even once across his 11-year career. He came close in 2019, leading the MLB in strikeouts and the AL in ERA but finishing second in voting to his then-Astros teammate Verlander. Another Houston hurler, Framber Valdez, might be the current front-runner along with the Rays' Shane McClanahan. But Cole, who has five top-five Cy Young finishes over the past eight seasons, isn't far behind. There are even more starters — including but not limited to Zac Gallen, Clayton Kershaw, Blake Snell and Spencer Strider — in striking distance for the NL award.
Deesha Thosar is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.
