Sep 14, 2016; St. Louis, MO, USA; Chicago Cubs fans celebrate after the Cubs defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 7-0 at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports FanDuel MLB
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FanDuel MLB: Picks and Pivots for September 15
Welcome to the Thursday edition of Picks & Pivots, a daily fantasy baseball column focused on providing analysis and insights into the top FanDuel MLB lineups. The purpose of this column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Thursday’s MLB schedule kicks off at 1:10PM EST with two early games and an additional eight games on the 7:05PM EST Main Slate.
I will continue to track winning Tournament lineups and compare trends over 5 day periods to help us understand what it takes to remain profitable. I HIGHLY recommend each of you do this each morning to look back on the previous night and understand how the winning lineups are constructed in the games you participate in.
The view below tracks GPP entries over various time periods, breaking out key metrics to understand the trends and compositions of GPP winning rosters:
Now on to the picks…For more DFS Strategy insights, check out my latest article to help take your game to the next level! I highly recommend gamers track their game performance across the various types of games they play – GPP’s, Cash, Multipliers etc – as this simple exercise will help teach you more about profitable roster construction than you can imagine.
Sep 7, 2016; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Chicago Cubs pitcher Mike Montgomery (38) throws a pitch in the first inning during the game against the Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
After a rough pitching slate on Wednesday, the Main Slate on Thursday is another difficult gauntlet to navigate as we do not have a single hurler over $10k. The highest priced pitcher on the slate is Rich Hill and although he comes in on the heels of a near perfect game, he also is a very risky pitcher due to his lingering blister issues which could knock him out at any time. Keep in mind, Hill is also facing an Arizona team on the road that leads all of baseball in wOBA and slugging against LHP and this may be a spot to pivot away from the top priced arm.
Mike Montgomery ($6,700) at home versus Milwaukee may be my top choice from a point per dollar perspective and makes a great play in one of the best match-ups on the board. I love to pick on Milwaukee and their league leading strikeout rate and considering Montgomery just pitched 5 innings with 6 strikeouts for 30 FanDuel points in a no decision against this same Brewer team, we can feel relatively safe with the floor that the left-hander has in this spot.
The Cubs enter Thursday’s game with their magic number at 1 so you can bet that Wrigley Field will be electric and should fuel one of the largest favorites on the slate (-218) to an easy victory. I expect Joe Maddon to put his A team behind Montgomery so the Cubs can clinch the division and start resting players down the stretch so this feels like a great spot to “play for the win” with Montgomery.
Sep 12, 2016; Bronx, NY, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager (5) hits a single against the New York Yankees during the first inning at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Dodgers LHB versus RHP Shelby Miller in Arizona: Playing the bats in Arizona has been a highly profitable strategy over the past few days and I plan on going back to the well on Thursday with the visiting Dodgers as they get to face a pitcher they should absolutely light up.
Miller has struggled all year with left-handed bats, surrendering a 40% hard contact rate while only striking out 13% of batters and walking 10%!
Left-handed bats have a .416 wOBA against Miller this season and I expect the big lefty bats in the Dodgers lineup to make for one of the top stacking options on the day. Chase Utley ($2,700) if he is batting lead-off is a great value play at a tough 2B spot to fill on Thursday and can be paired with Yasmany Grandal ($2,800) who is one of the top point per game catchers over the past two weeks.
Corey Seager ($4,100) is my top play from this game and I believe is worth the investment at shortstop with this match up sitting in front of him.
Blue Jays against Daniel Wright in LAA: Although it has been a small sample size, Wright has struggled mightily at the MLB level this season to the tune of a 7.50 ERA and an absurd 45% hard contact to hitters.
Hitters from both sides of the plate have had immense success against Wright with .400+ wOBA and near .400 batting averages and the Blue Jays have one of the most lethal lineups for DFS purposes.
Sep 3, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Cubs first baseman Kris Bryant (17) breaks his bat during the ninth inning against the San Francisco Giants at Wrigley Field. San Francisco won 3-2. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports
Below you will find my initial lineup for Thursday’s Main FanDuel MLB slate including notes/comments on my roster construction.