National Football League

Every NFL team's 2021 win totals, ranked from worst to best bet

Updated Sep. 7, 2021 5:44 p.m. ET

By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Our Super Bowl futures are in. You read the Midsummer NFL gambling blueprint. Week 1 is here.

Now, it’s time to rank the season win total over/under prices of all 32 NFL teams — that is, how many wins the sportsbooks predict for each team in 2021, and which of those bets I like best. Some teams, we'll go over. Some teams, we'll go under. And some numbers have moved from the spring, while others are on the move, so you'll want to get in on the action ASAP.

Let's get to the rankings (with all odds via FOX Bet).

32. Atlanta Falcons under 7.5 wins (+110; bet $10 to win $21 total)

Confession: I don’t have a strong opinion at all about the Falcons. New coach. Several projected defensive starters I’ve never heard of. Can Mike Davis be your No. 1 RB? Will the offensive line ever be healthy? It kind of feels like Matt Ryan (36 years old) is near the end.

This isn’t even a pizza money play. This is an airport-coffee-sized play.

31. Pittsburgh Steelers over 8.5 wins (-133; bet $10 to win $17.52 total)

The world is against the Steelers and with good reason: hardest schedule in the NFL, closing at Kansas City, vs. Cleveland, at Baltimore, went 7-2 in one-score games last year, Ben Roethlisberger is 39 and looked shot in December.

But the world is never right, so give me tooth-fairy money on the over.

30. Arizona Cardinals over 8.5 wins (+110; bet $10 to win $21 total)

The NFC West is the best division in the conference, and two teams have seen their win totals bet up (Cardinals, Seahawks).

I’m a sucker for Kyler Murray, and even the old guys (JJ Watt, AJ Green) they brought in will help a locker room that lacked confidence late in the season. The secondary is boom or bust, and that’s suboptimal in a division in which they’ve gotten beaten up (3-9) under Kliff Kingsbury.

29. Cincinnati Bengals over 6.5 wins (+100; bet $10 to win $20 total)

How will Joe Burrow play after last year’s ACL surgery? The Bengals didn’t do a ton to improve the offensive line, opting instead for Ja’Marr Chase, the former LSU star receiver.

Reminder: Zac Taylor has six wins in three years as head coach of the Bengals. That’s why the confidence level is so low here.

28. Detroit Lions over 5.5 wins (+130; bet $10 to win $23 total)

Like an idiot, I drank the Lions Kool-Aid last year, and I won’t make that mistake ever again. Still, I give an ever-so-slight lean to the over, going against the masses who think the Lions are tanking for the No. 1 pick.

The receivers are perhaps the worst unit in the NFL, and the defense was dead last in many categories last season. But the offensive line is excellent, and the Lions are going to try to chew clock and ground-and-pound teams to death.

27. Philadelphia Eagles under 6.5 wins (+110; bet $10 to win $21 total)

I hate doing this just in case they trade for Deshaun Watson and he suits up this season — tiny chance, but you’d hate to lose a bet that way — but this feels like a transition year for the Eagles.

An aging defense, an old offensive line, a first-time head coach and a first-time defensive coordinator? Lots will be thrown at the wall. Some will stick. Most will not.

26. Minnesota Vikings over 8.5 wins (-162; bet $10 to win $16.17 total)

Minnesota is one of the toughest teams to peg because there’s a world in which the Vikings win 11 games and another in which they win five games and Mike Zimmer is fired.

The lack of pass rush and questions in the secondary are very real. The loaded offense can mask only so many mistakes. I dislike the heavy juice, hence the ranking.

25. Buffalo Bills over 10.5 wins (-175; bet $10 to win $15.71 total)

The Super Bowl love is gushy and over-the-top, but this offense is ridiculously stacked. We’re talking about a QB who made a quantum leap in one year and got the most guaranteed money in NFL history.

There will be some regression from 13-3, which is why the Bills are down the list here.

24. Seattle Seahawks under 9.5 wins (+120; bet $10 to win $22 total)

Russell Wilson has won 10-plus games in eight of his nine NFL seasons. With an extra game, he should get there, right? Not so sure.

If you think the Seahawks can go 8-3 in one-score games again, sure. And riddle me this: Did Seattle’s defense play great down the stretch (6-1), or did they beat up a lot of bad/backup QBs?

23. New York Jets over 6.5 wins (+125; bet $10 to win $22.50 total)

This opened at 7 and was bet down to 6.5 and then to 6 at some places. Zach Wilson’s struggles in the preseason are cause for concern, as there’s no veteran backup to turn to. The front seven on defense will keep the Jets in games, and the skill-position players are vastly upgraded. Frisky is a word I’ll use for the Jets.

22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers over 11.5 wins (-143; bet $10 to win $16.99 total)

I already wrote about how I like a long-shot bet of the Bucs to go unbeaten, so no need to load up betting their over wins, too.

But I’ll make this easy: Find me five losses on their schedule. I’ll be generous and spot you the Rams and Bills. Find me three more. Good luck.

21. New England Patriots over 9.5 wins (-118; bet $10 to win $18.47 total)

If you can find a 9 — where it opened months ago — this moves into my top 10 over/under bets. When factoring in COVID opt-outs and free agency, the Patriots have an entirely new offense and defense.

The biggest concern isn’t QB. Rather, it's the schedule. The Patriots have to play three teams coming off a bye week, the most in the NFL.

20. Tennessee Titans under 9.5 wins (-125; bet $10 to win $18 total)

Yes, they added Julio Jones, and … ?

Bud Dupree is coming off an ACL injury. I'm not sure how this defense is getting stops, even in a bad division such as the AFC South. The Titans went 7-2 in one-score games last season. That won’t happen again. Derrick Henry has been run into the ground the past two years, leading the league in carries.

19. Dallas Cowboys over 9.5 wins (-105; bet $10 to win $19.52 total)

If you shop around and can find a 9 on the Dak Prescott shoulder concerns, grab it. The Cowboys play in the worst division in the NFL and lost the second-most games to injury on the offensive line last year, and if you look at their schedule based on opponent win totals, it’s the seventh-easiest in the NFL.

18. Green Bay Packers under 10.5 wins (+100; bet $10 to win $20 total)

The best offensive line in the NFL lost two starters, and a third is recovering from surgery, and you want me to bet the over because maybe 37-year-old Aaron Rodgers can duplicate the greatest season of his career? Not happening.

The Packers are contenders in the NFC for sure, but the schedule is much more difficult, and they won’t sniff 13 wins for the third year in a row.

17. Cleveland Browns over 10.5 wins (-110; bet $10 to win $19.09 total)

They’ve taken on money all summer and gone from 9.5 wins to 10.5, so you’re buying at the top of the market, which is why it’s buried in the deck here.

Yes, I like the Browns this season. They have Super Bowl talent.

16. Los Angeles Rams over 10.5 wins (+105; bet $10 to win $20.50 total)

The Rams lost five key contributors on a defense that ranked in the top five against the run and pass, plus defensive coordinator Brandon Staley.

Still, the upgrade from Jared Goff to Matthew Stafford is significant enough for me to like them to win 11 games, even in one of the toughest divisions in the NFL.

15. Denver Broncos over 8.5 wins (-150; bet $10 to win $16.67 total)

This means you’re betting either Teddy Bridgewater or Drew Lock to carry a young offense over .500. Betting a win total over with major questions at QB and coach is risky.

Denver lost its best offensive player (Courtland Sutton) after Week 1 last year and didn’t have its best defensive player (Von Miller) the entire season. But the defense has top-five potential and could carry this team to a 3-0 start, as the Broncos face two rookie QBs in September, plus Daniel Jones.

14. Las Vegas Raiders over 7.5 wins (+115; bet $10 to win $21.50 total)

Another team that opened at 7 and has been bet up, so you’re not getting the best number.

They’ve got the third-best QB in the AFC West, and he just lost three offensive linemen, but the defense can’t get worse adding Yannick Ngakoue and Casey Hayward, can it?

13. New York Giants over 7.5 wins (+115; bet $10 to win $21.50 total)

Don’t trust the QB, don’t love the head coach, and the offensive line has potential to be among the league’s worst units (again). But how can you deny the talent on this roster?

Wait on this one. If Saquon Barkley and Kenny Golladay are healthy for Week 1, I’ll feel good about the over. A soft early schedule could mean a 4-1 start, and that means just four wins the rest of the way playing in the worst division in football.

12. Los Angeles Chargers under 9.5 wins (-143; bet $10 to win $16.99 total)

Yes, the Chargers are much better on the offensive line, and Justin Herbert has all his best weapons back.

But the defense lost three key starters, and the early schedule could present major problems to the Chargers and new coach Brandon Staley. They face three playoff teams in their first six games, plus travel to Washington, host the Cowboys and Raiders.

There’s a real chance they start 2-4, making 10 wins a challenge.

11. Kansas City Chiefs over 12.5 wins (+105; bet $10 to win $20.50 total)

They’re favored in 16 of 17 games, and many of their toughest out-of-division opponents come to Arrowhead (versus Bills, Packers, Cowboys, Steelers).

Under Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs have gone 12-4, 12-4, 14-2. Can you find five losses on their schedule?

10. Carolina Panthers over 7.5 wins (+100; bet $10 to win $20 total)

I’m a believer in Sam Darnold despite his being one of the worst statistical QBs in the NFL last season. He has a significantly better group of skill-position players than he had in New York. Even with offensive line and secondary questions, it wouldn’t shock me if the Panthers finished second in the division.

9. Washington Football Team under 8.5 wins (-110; bet $10 to win $19.09 total)

Yes, the defense is excellent, but almost everything else has me confident that regression is coming. Washington, amazingly, is going to be an underdog in every game from Week 3 through Week 13.

Do you want to take the over on a team that’s favored in just four games? Ryan Fitzpatrick historically has been terrific when there’s no pressure. Now, he’s taking over a playoff team. Gulp.

8. Houston Texans under 4.5 wins (-162; bet $10 to win $16.17 total)

Worst roster in the NFL? Check. Signing a million veterans in free agency, making them the oldest team in football? Check. Underdogs in every game this season? Check. Two of their weakest opponents (Jacksonville, Carolina) come in September, and if they lose both of those, go ahead and spend your winnings.

7. Baltimore Ravens over 10.5 wins (-150; bet $10 to win $16.67 total)

Many pundits have the Browns winning the division and the Steelers falling off a cliff. Nobody’s talking about the Ravens, who opened at 11, took under money and went to 10.5, and then smart money moved them back to 11. This is the only team in the NFL last season to finish top-11 in offense, defense and special teams.

6. New Orleans Saints under 8.5 wins (-154; bet $10 to win $16.49 total)

You either buy into the Jameis Winston hype or you don’t. Put me in the latter category. If defenses can scheme out this team's only offensive weapon, Alvin Kamara, I’m not sure the Saints move the ball without Michael Thomas. The defense will be good, but after losing five contributors, it won’t sniff last year’s lofty No. 2 rating.

5. San Francisco 49ers over 10.5 wins (+105; bet $10 to win $20.50 total)

If you read the piece on Super Bowl futures, you know I’m bullish on the 49ers. The division is a minefield, but they should start 2-0 headed into a huge game against the Packers, whom the 49ers have owned their past two meetings. A 3-0 start and a soft December slate will get us to the window.

4. Indianapolis Colts under 8.5 wins (-105; bet $10 to win $19.52 total)

You could have had under 10 before the injuries to Carson Wentz and Quenton Nelson, but there’s still some value at 8.5. Indy could run the table in December — facing five teams that missed the playoffs last year, all of whom are projected to miss the postseason this year — but can they survive September?

Potentially without their QB or best OL, they have the toughest schedule in the league, including three straight road games that bleed into October.

3. Miami Dolphins under 9.5 wins (-150; bet $10 to win $16.67 total)

It’s heavily juiced because there are 9s in the market. The Dolphins were one of the luckiest teams in the NFL last year, forcing the most turnovers (28), leading the NFL in third-down defense and red zone defense.

Historically, that’s borderline impossible to duplicate. Yes, the offense will be better with Tua, thanks to the addition of Will Fuller and Jaylen Waddle.

2. Chicago Bears under 7.5 wins (-120; bet $10 to win $18.33 total)

I'm not sure how I feel about trading out Kyle Fuller for Desmond Trufant in the secondary or a rotten offensive line that’s playing musical chairs with rookies in the preseason. Toss in QB uncertainty and a head coach on the hot seat, and this could get ugly.

This opened at 7 and was bet up to 7.5. Guess those folks didn’t look at the schedule.

1. Jacksonville Jaguars over 6.5 wins (+105; bet $10 to win $20.50 total)

Despite a rookie QB and a first-time head coach, optimism reigns in Jacksonville. If you want to be negative, sure, they didn’t improve a wretched secondary, and there’s already talk of trading CJ Henderson.

But this was a team that had an over/under of 6.5 wins last year with Gardner Minshew at QB. Trevor Lawrence is a massive upgrade. The Jags aren’t underdogs of more than a field goal in their first six games.

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.