National Basketball Association

Everything you need to know about USA Basketball's path to a gold medal

Published Nov. 15, 2016 3:12 p.m. ET

Andrew Lynch

Paul George wasn't alone in thinking Team USA would breeze to a gold medal in Rio. A number of the United States' best players stayed home because of injury, fatigue or a lack of desire to play in the Olympics, but expectations were still sky-high in 2016 (although not everyone was buying into USA Basketball).

Instead, Team USA will be lucky just to survive through the medal round, which begin for the Americans on Wednesday at 5:45 p.m. ET as they take on Argentina. Whether you've watched every game from the edge of your seat or tuned out entirely up to this point, here's everything you need to know about USA Basketball's path to a gold medal.

Purely based on wins and losses, this undefeated squad is aces so far. Unfortunately, that 5-0 record obscures some pretty big flaws with the roster and, more importantly, the coaching.

Team USA rolled to a 119-62 blowout against China in its first game of the group stage, followed by an alarming 113-69 win over Venezuela that was tied at 18 after the first quarter. That slow start was cause for concern, yet the team seemed oddly content to trust results over process, as evidenced by DeAndre Jordan's postgame comments:

Ideally, yes. In reality, close calls against Australia, Serbia, and France confirmed our darkest fears. On any given night, this mismatched assemblage of NBA players is ripe for an upset.

Team USA at its worst is an exercise in abundance: too many 3-pointers; too many misses off the back iron; too many transition opportunities the other way; too much giving up on the play; too much ball-watching on defense; too much stagnant offense when you know they can play so much better.

This Olympic squad encapsulates all the worst parts of the NBA, the aspects you defend to the death against your friends who aren't NBA fans but loathe in the privacy of your own home. Somehow, the United States Men's National Team became the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors, with Kyrie Irving in the place of Stephen Curry, plus a version of Kevin Durant who's playing like he'd rather be anywhere else.

On the bright side, there's no LeBron James waiting to destroy Team USA like the Warriors. So things should be fine.

From this point forward, one loss is all it takes to cost yourselves a gold medal. A loss against Argentina (an almost unimaginable outcome; Bovada.com lists Team USA as 24.5-point favorites) would mean the end of the tournament for USA Basketball. KD, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson would have to take their collapse back to Golden State.

Again, Team USA will likely cruise in the quarterfinals. A loss in the semifinals, however, would result in a bronze-medal game on Sunday against the other semifinal loser. And, of course, a loss in the gold-medal game means silver.

And anything short of gold would be a far more embarrassing performance than the modern nadir reached by the United States in Athens 12 years ago.

2004 was supposed to serve notice to USA Basketball, preventing that failure from ever happening again. Yet here we are, with Team USA a heavy favorite perpetually on the brink of upset. You can point to all the players who skipped the Olympics as an excuse for the close games, but that misses the point. This team has plenty of talent to dominate opponents. The inability to get the job done demonstrates a lack of focus and effort by everyone involved.

The aforementioned quote from Jordan is a good place to start. Team USA was supposed to be one of the greatest defensive teams we've ever seen. They haven't shown that in the past two games against legitimate opponents, but that potential is still there.

Coach K just needs to get out of his own way and play his best defensive players. That means no more DeMar DeRozan.

At all. Period. Not a single minute.

It's kind of confusing, really. DeRozan (59 minutes) has played more than Draymond Green (56 minutes) and nearly as much as Jimmy Butler (63 minutes) — two guys who can actually defend and help on offense.

Butler and Green need to play more in these elimination games. In particular, Coach K should seriously consider playing Green at center when he can, making room for Butler to play on the wing next to George or Klay Thompson. Green hasn't always been great in these Olympics, but his versatility unlocks the United States' best lineups. Anything that will get the best all-around unit on the floor must be on the table. It's a novel concept, but why not give it a shot?

On the other end of the court, Team USA has to play as a unit rather than five individuals trying to win one-on-one matchups. Isolation is acceptable in moderation; exploiting mismatches is a fine strategy, especially if the rest of the team makes smart cuts and moves well away from the ball.

Resorting to hero-ball is unacceptable, though, as is asking KD or Carmelo Anthony to bail you out at the end of a possession. They need to get their touches, naturally. It's always a good idea to let your two best scorers shoot as much as possible, and we all want more Olympic Melo. He's one of the greatest basketball players who ever lived.

Making sure those shots come in the flow of the offense, even for such talented scorers? That's an even better idea. If these professional basketball players can find it in themselves to run plays like the elite NBA stars they are, Team USA will be in fine shape.

Team USA faces Manu Ginboli, Luis Scola and Argentina (3-2 in the preliminary round) in the quarterfinals on Wednesday.

A win means a date in the semifinals on Friday against the winner of Spain vs. France. Both teams finished 3-2 in the preliminary round, with Spain posting the larger total margin of victory (75-45). UPDATE: Spain continued the trend on Wednesday, defeating France in a 92-67 blowout

With talented NBA players in its own right — Paul Gasol, Nikola Mirotic and Ricky Rubio, to name a few — Spain is currently listed as the best bet to win gold outside of Team USA. The path to the gold-medal game won't be easy.

On the other side of the bracket, Australia faces Lithuania in a clash of big men featuring Jonas Valanciunas, Domantas Sabonis, Andrew Bogut and Aron Baynes. Croatia's Bojan Bogdanovic, Mario Hezonja and Dario Saric take on Serbia's Bogdan Bogdanovic (no relation), Milos Teodosic, and Nikola Jokic in a game that will please 3-point enthusiasts and fans of dominant post play alike.

The winners of those two games will square off in the semis for a shot at a gold medal on Sunday. All four are capable of giving Team USA a scare. A week ago, I ranked Australia as the biggest threat to knock off the United States, and I think that's still the case. However, I also might have underrated Croatia and Serbia. Both teams can go shot for shot with Team USA, if the Americans aren't locked in on defense.

Yes, but I can't say I'm absolutely certain. Bovada has the United States as a -2000 favorite to win the tournament, and that feels right. If we could somehow play out these Olympics over and over again, Team USA would probably lose one out of every 20 times or so.

A combination of lackadaisical play, cold shooting and a few unlucky bounces could spell disaster. Here's hoping we don't live in that darkest timeline.