National Football League

2023 NFL odds: Bettors big on Russell Wilson to win Comeback Player of the Year

Updated Jul. 29, 2023 3:46 p.m. ET

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Russell Wilson's tenure with the Denver Broncos got off to a disastrous start last season after he signed a five-year, $245 million contract extension.

But that could be a good thing for bettors looking for value in their NFL Comeback Player of the Year wagers after Wilson and the Broncos suffered through a 5-12 season. 

As a matter of fact, Wilson is getting noticeable action at BetMGM to win the award – RW3 is getting the most play in terms of number of bets and betting handle.

So can the nine-time Pro Bowl QB revive his career under new coach Sean Payton in the Mile High City? His odds recently shortened to +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total) from +3000.

Let's take a look at the latest odds to win NFL Comeback Player of the Year, with betting insights from FOX Sports NFL Analyst Geoff Schwartz.

Quarterbacks under the most pressure

Colin Cowherd shares his Top 5 quarterbacks under the most pressure this season, featuring Russell Wilson, Matthew Stafford and Justin Fields.

2023 NFL COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR ODDS*

Damar Hamlin, Bills safety: -360 (bet $10 to win $12.78 total)
Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins quarterback: +2000 (bet $10 to win $210 total)
Russell Wilson, Broncos quarterback: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Breece Hall, Jets running back: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Lamar Jackson, Ravens quarterback: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
John Metchie, Texans receiver: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Cooper Kupp, Rams receiver: +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total)
Odell Beckham Jr., Ravens receiver: +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total)
Sam Darnold, 49ers quarterback: +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total)
Calvin Ridley, Jaguars receiver: +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total)
Matthew Stafford, Rams quarterback: +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total)
Jonathan Taylor, Colts running back: +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total)
T.J. Watt, Steelers linebacker: +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total)
Trey Lance, 49ers quarterback: +6000 (bet $10 to win $610 total)

* as of 7/29/2023

Insights from FOX Sports NFL Analyst Geoff Schwartz:

With Sean Payton running the show in Denver, you would hope Wilson would not get sacked 55 times and throw only 16 touchdowns. Improvements in either of those categories could get Wilson into the conversation for this award. However, I don’t see enough improvement happening this season.

RELATED: Panthers name Bryce Young starting QB

We know what happened last season with Nathaniel Hackett calling plays. Wilson looked shot. He was not a confident player, and he couldn’t complete simple passes. He took too many sacks and looked discombobulated way too many times for a veteran. Some of these issues showed in Seattle but were accelerated in Denver.

On paper, Sean Payton’s offense should force Wilson to get rid of the ball quickly, but that is not what made Wilson great. He’s not a quarterback who hits his back foot and fires the ball in timing routes. What made Wilson excellent was his ability to extend plays to make magic and launch his signature high-arcing deep pass. That was the best in the NFL. 

As Wilson has gotten older, his mobility has waned and/or he’s decided to run less to avoid hits. It’s understandable as that happens to quarterbacks as they age. But it’s made Wilson a worse quarterback. Also, I think Wilson’s preparation turns him into a robot on the field. He's not able to make adjustments when things don’t present themselves as he planned.

I do believe Wilson will get a bump playing in Payton’s offense because it’s impossible to not play better than last season. I just don’t believe that bump will be enough to get Wilson anywhere near this award. 

If Damar Hamlin is on the Bills roster to start this season, he’s winning this award. If not, I wrote a few weeks back about my favorite player to cash this ticket, Lamar Jackson. Jackson will be far ahead of Wilson for this award. I would not wager my money on Wilson.

Do you like Wilson's odds to win Comeback Player of the Year? Stay tuned to FOX Sports for the latest NFL news.

Play FOX Super 6 every week for your chance to win thousands of dollars every week. Just download the Super 6 app and make your picks today!

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in this topic

National Football League

Denver Broncos

Russell Wilson

Damar Hamlin

Buffalo Bills

Breece Hall

New York Jets

Tua Tagovailoa

Miami Dolphins

Lamar Jackson

Baltimore Ravens

Cooper Kupp

Los Angeles Rams

John Metchie III

Houston Texans

Matthew Stafford

Jonathan Taylor

Indianapolis Colts

Trey Lance

San Francisco 49ers

Sam Darnold

Odell Beckham Jr.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Calvin Ridley