Denver Broncos

NFL Week 4: Full Picks Against the Spread

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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To round out the NFL Week 4 predictions, we’ll make the picks against the spread for every game this week.

After three weeks of the 2016 season, we can finally start to establish patterns. You know the Minnesota Vikings and Denver Broncos will compete solely because of defense. We know that the New Orleans Saints will be doing whatever the polar opposite of that is. The list goes on, but we finally have some sort of grasp on the league entering NFL Week 4.

However, that didn’t exactly translate to much success when it came to picks against the spread in Week 3. After going an even .500 in Week 2 (the first week of these picks), I failed to even reach that same clip. That has a lot to do with surprises like the Arizona Cardinals faltering again and other outcomes of that ilk.

But hey; quitters never prosper. So we’re back again to try to conquer the oddsmakers and see if we can’t make more sense of the NFL. Let’s start by remembering that bye weeks start now, so the Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers will have the week off. Now on to the NFL Week 4 picks against the spread.

Week 3 Record: 7-9
2016 Record: 15-17 (No Picks for Week 1)

Sep 25, 2016; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Miami Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill (17) attempts a pass in the game against the Cleveland Browns during the first half at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5)

We’ll start with the Thursday game, which I picked on Twitter prior to kickoff. Don’t believe me?

#Bengals -7.5 is this weeks #TNF pick against the spread. Full picks for #NFL Week 4 coming shortly. #MIAvsCIN

— NFL Spin Zone (@NFLSpinZone) September 30, 2016

The Thursday Night Football matchup this week featured the Dolphins traveling to take on the Cincinnati Bengals. Make no mistake, the home team’s 1-2 start to 2016 was both shocking and disappointing. However, that doesn’t mean they were quite on-par with the visitors.

Miami should have lost outright to the Cleveland Browns last week with Cody Kessler starting at quarterback. That fact alone is enough to made me take the favorites here. When you factored in their lack of running game and the Bengals front line, though, I felt even more strongly about that.

Pick: Bengals -7.5 (That’s a W)

Sep 25, 2016; Jacksonville, FL, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles (5) smiles during the fourth quarter against the Baltimore Ravens at EverBank Field. Baltimore Ravens won 19-17. Mandatory Credit: Logan Bowles-USA TODAY Sports

Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (Game in London)

We know by now that the London game in the NFL is a mess every single year. Even if it plays out according to the script in terms of result, it’s never pretty. So when you have an underperforming and winless Jaguars team facing the fraudulent Colts, you know that’s again going to be the case.

However, the one thing that we do know is that both of these teams have the capability of putting points on the board. And considering the lack of performance from each team’s defense, that should happen even across the pond. As far as results go, though, I think Gus Bradley is coaching for his job and leads Jacksonville to their first win of the season.

Pick: Jaguars +2.5

Carolina Panthers (-3) at Atlanta Falcons

The Panthers have already lost more games in 2016 than they did all of last season. Of course, facing the defenses of the Broncos and Vikings is no easy task. Spoiler alert: the Falcons are right on-pace with the Saints in regards to not being able to stop anyone this season. Thus, I see Cam Newton and company having a bounce-back performance and winning this one handily on a short road trip to Atlanta.

Pick: Panthers -3

Sep 25, 2016; Nashville, TN, USA; Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr (4) throws the ball against the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium. The Raiders defeated the Titans 17-10. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Oakland Raiders at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)

I picked the Raiders over the Tennessee Titans last week against the spread, expecting the offense to have a big day. That wasn’t so much the case, but the defense that they paid so much attention to in the offseason finally showed up. Now they have to travel back east to take on the undefeated Ravens and Joe Flacco.

Obviously this game hinges on the secondary of Oakland again coming to play. However, the record with Baltimore shouldn’t fool you. Their three opponents to now have a combined one win between them. I think they get a wake-up call as the Raiders move to 3-1 and start making believers out of everyone again.

Pick: Raider +3.5

Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) at New York Jets

When your quarterback throws six interceptions one week, you definitely don’t want to see the Seahawks and that secondary on the schedule next. However, that’s what Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Jets have going on in Week 4. Like the Raiders, though, this is a long road trip for a West Coast team that I’m still not totally sold on.

Even still, I think the Jets are shook after last week and that even playing at home against a team with a long travel to get there won’t matter.

Pick: Seahawks -2.5

Sep 18, 2016; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Browns wide receiver Terrelle Pryor (11) runs the ball for a first down against the Baltimore Ravens during the fourth quarter at FirstEnergy Stadium. The Ravens defeated the Browns 25-20. Mandatory Credit: Scott R. Galvin-USA TODAY Sports

Cleveland Browns at Washington Redskins (-7.5)

Despite the popular narrative, the Browns aren’t quite as bad as people think. At the very least, they’ve been able to piece together competitive games every time out. Hue Jackson is doing all he can to get production, as evidenced by Terrelle Pryor’s involvement in the offense.

With Washington having struggled a bit against the run and Isaiah Crowell being productive on the ground for the Browns, I at least have the road underdog keeping this one close. Hell, they might just come out and pick up their first win of the season, too.

Pick: Browns +7.5

Detroit Lions (-3) at Chicago Bears

I have very little confidence in the Lions right now. Don’t let the fact that they only lost by seven to the Green Bay Packers fool you—that was all garbage time, something Matthew Stafford and Co. have been kings of.

That being said, this Bears team is in shambles right now due to injuries. They weren’t going to be good regardless, but now they are an absolute dumpster fire with a severely depleted roster. As such, the Lions should be able to come into Soldier Field and control this game from the get-go.

Pick: Lions -3

Sep 18, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Texans wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins (10) reacts after a reception during the game against the Kansas City Chiefs at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-4.5)

Though he’s just one player, people are going to be a bit shocked at how ineffective the Texans defense can be without J.J. Watt. He’s the heart-and-soul both in terms of leadership and the attention he demands that opens up avenues for success elsewhere. Thus, this game could devolve (or maybe evolve) into an unexpected shootout.

However, I’m sticking with the Watt-less home team here. Despite their defense not being what it normally is, I think either DeAndre Hopkins or Will Fuller absolute terrorizes Perrish Cox on the outside and that Houston protects NRG Stadium. This won’t be a trend going forward, but it’ll happen in NFL Week 4.

Pick: Texans -4.5

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-6)

Even without Tom Brady, the Patriots have started 2016 with a convincing three-straight wins. Meanwhile, the Bills pulled off a shocking upset of a Cardinals team that came out flat in Week 3. That came one week after it seemed like turmoil was the name of the game in Buffalo. Is there something I’m missing here that leads to New England only being favored by six points at home.

Taking the Pats is easy money (proverbially) on Sunday.

Pick: Patriots -6

Sep 25, 2016; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Trevor Siemian (13) against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium. The Broncos won 29-17. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

Denver Broncos (-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Trevor Siemian is the greatest quarterback to ever play in the NFL. Okay, that’s not even remotely true. But the second-year former seventh-rounder is playing far better than anyone could’ve ever expected. His competency has this Broncos team looking every bit as good as they were last season with the defense still striding along and wreaking havoc on the league.

Jameis Winston and the Bucs on the other hand have been hard-to-gauge through three weeks. The consensus, though, is that they can put up points against most defenses, but can’t really stop anyone. Unfortunately, I don’t think they can put up points against Denver—even at home.

Pick: Broncos -3

Dallas Cowboys (-2) at San Francisco 49ers

When you think about it, it’s absolutely wild that the Cowboys are 2-1 without Tony Romo and with rookie Dak Prescott under center. However, their defense has played over their heads under the direction of Rod Marinelli while Prescott and that offensive line have been fantastic. Meanwhile, I think it’s safe to go ahead and write off the Week 1 win for the Nines as a bit of a fluke as this team isn’t good at all. Subsequently, I think another road favorite gets the win here.

Pick: Cowboys -2

Sep 18, 2016; Glendale, AZ, USA; Arizona Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians looks on prior to the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at University of Phoenix Stadium. The Cardinals won 40-7. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-7.5)

Hell hath no fury like a Bruce Arians scorned. Yes, I’m every bit as disappointed as you with what the Cardinals have shown this season. Considering I said they’d be the NFC representative in the Super Bowl, having them start 1-2 isn’t something I expected. However, it’s important in Week 4 to remember how they went about getting that one win.

After a crushing loss where they played horribly on the road in Week 1, the Cardinals came back home and beat the daylights out of the Bucs in Arizona. Now they have a Rams team coming to town after they got embarrassed by Buffalo. I have a hunch that Arians is going to have this Cards team fiery and that this one could get away from LA quickly.

Pick: Cardinals -7.5

New Orleans Saints at San Diego Chargers (-4)

There’s always a game that I have no idea at all what to do with. That would indubitably be this game this week. San Diego comes into this matchup where they should probably be 3-0 after blowing two leads. However, Mike McCoy is looking on the hot seat now and they need a win at home.

Meanwhile, the Saints are going to be away from the home Superdome and would seemingly give up points to a high school team. Thus, I’m left with choosing the overachievers that are blowing leads to the team that can’t effectively do half of the game in football. In that type of scenario, I always take the home team.

Pick: Chargers -4

Oct 18, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell (26) rushes the ball against the Arizona Cardinals during the first quarter at Heinz Field. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5)

If you were to be backing off of the Steelers after what happened last week, I couldn’t blame you. They were absolutely embarrassed by the Philadelphia Eagles. What’s more concerning is that their vaunted offense looked incapable. You know what works wonders for an offense needing a jolt, though? Inserting Le’Veon Bell into said lineup.

Bell might well be the best running back in the NFL and he returns from a three-game suspension on Sunday Night Football. Though the Chiefs defense is flying high after picking off Ryan Fitzpatrick six times last week, I think the Steelers have too much firepower with their running back returning.

Pick: Steelers -4.5

New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-5)

I could waster your time talking about the three games for each time leading up to now. However, all that needs to be said is that the Giants are a mediocre-to-slightly-above team and the Vikings might legitimately be great and are playing at home. That’s all.

Pick: Vikings -5