Boston Celtics

Assessing the Sustainability of Isaiah Thomas' Offensive Output

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 9:58 p.m. ET

Fansided, Greg Cassoli/FanSided via Hardwood Houdini

Isaiah Thomas is having a historic season for the Boston Celtics, but can he keep it up for the second half of the season?

We are just about halfway through the 2016-2017 season, and Isaiah Thomas has been unstoppable on the offensive end of the floor throughout. He’s averaging a career high 28.9 points per game. A mark that is third in the league, and represent s 27 percent of the Boston Celtics seventh ranked offensive. Factor in his 6.3 assists per contest, and Thomas is responsible for an average of 44.2 points every time he plays.

That’s a ludicrous level of offensive output, and he’s not posting numbers purely on volume either. His total shots are up, so quantity isn’t a nonfactor in his bump in per game scoring, but Thomas’ efficiency numbers haven’t dipped a bit, and that’s really what’s been most remarkable. He’s taken on an even more significant role in the Boston offense, and somehow managed to do his job more effectively. In fact, he’s gotten better. His 27.2 PER, which currently ranks as the eighth best in the league, is more than six full points ahead of the next best mark of his life, and his shooting percentage from everywhere beyond 10 feet are at career high levels as well.

The natural question thus becomes whether or not he can continue his stellar performance in the second half. Players typically don’t become more efficient as their loads increase, and it’s not outrageous to think Thomas may have gotten exceptionally hot for several months. Half a season isn’t too small a sample size to dismiss, but it’s also not enough to make any definitive conclusions. Thomas has done plenty to inspire confidence in his continued success, though, and there is evidence to suggest his improved performance is sustainable.

Jan 18, 2017; Boston, MA, USA; Boston Celtics guard Isaiah Thomas (4) drives the ball against New York Knicks center Marshall Plumlee (40) in the second half at TD Garden. The Knicks defeated the Celtics 117-106. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

The locations on the floor from which Thomas is generating his points is particularly promising. Comparing his numbers from last season to the current campaign reveals that 73.2 percent of Thomas’ 6.7 point increase from last year in points per game are coming from three-pointers, free-throws, and shots at the rim (in that order). Those are by far the three most efficient shot types in basketball, and suggest that Thomas isn’t just knocking in difficult shots at an unsustainable rate (looking at you week 1-2 DeRozan).

Thomas’ boom in scoring comes, instead, from a smart distribution of an increased number of shots and a steady parade to the free throw line. His ability to continue to perform at the level he has thus far will be predicated on whether or not he can continue to find the good looks he’s found to date.

Identifying hard data as to whether or not that will be feasible is challenging, but the structural changes the Celtics have made to their offense bode well. That starts with Al Horford, whose presence has not only added a significant helping of ball movement, but stretched defenses in a way Boston was simply unable to do last year. Horford is banging home 34.8 percent of his three point attempts, and the team’s starting wings are doing their part as well. Avery Bradley and Jae Crowder are both shooting over 40 percent from deep.

All that extra shooting has opened up lanes to the hoop for Thomas, and generated more difficult decisions and late rotations that turn into fouls for opposing defenses. All of this to say, if the Celtics stay healthy and continue to shoot relatively well, there is no reason to believe Thomas can’t continue to put up big numbers.

NBA offenses are ecosystems, and Boston has tailored its to accentuate the strengths of its greatest threat. Defending Thomas in space is an absolute nightmare. The Celtics have, through the addition of Horford and internal development, created ample space for him to operate in, and they’re reaping the rewards. They deserve credit for setting up Thomas for success. Now they’ll just need to tend to that defense.