Major League Baseball

Trevor Story revitalizes Red Sox lineup, adds infield insurance

Updated Mar. 21, 2022 2:40 p.m. ET

By Jake Mintz
FOX Sports MLB Writer

How does Trevor Story fit into Boston’s lineup, and what does his deal mean for the future of the Red Sox?

First of all, it means the Red Sox woke up.

After an underwhelming offseason both pre- and post-lockout, Boston finally hopped into the free-agent pool, inking the former Rockies shortstop to a six-year, $140 million deal. The contract immediately makes Story the highest-paid position player on Boston’s roster ($23.3 million per year) and the second-highest-paid player overall behind Chris Sale.

The move is an uncharacteristic splash from third-year GM Chaim Bloom that instantly elevates the Sox's lineup from simply good to potentially great, but it also portends an uncertain future for longtime Boston shortstop Xander Bogaerts.

First, let’s tell Story’s story. A first-round pick out of a Texas high school back in 2011, Story made Colorado’s big-league roster out of spring training in 2016 and produced perhaps the single most incredible debut week in baseball history. He homered twice in his first game, both times off future Hall of Famer Zack Greinke, and proceeded to dinger six times in his first four games and seven times in his first six, becoming the first player in big-league history to start a season — let alone a career — with such a hot streak.

But despite the dreamland start, it took Story another year or so to truly blossom. He missed the second half of his rookie season due to a hand injury and struggled mightily at the dish for all of 2017, leading the National League with a whopping 191 strikeouts.

In 2018, he finally turned the corner and emerged from the shadow of his more famous infield-mate, Nolan Arenado, by whacking 37 homers and posting an OPS over .900. That season earned Story a trip to the All-Star Game, a Silver Slugger award and an eighth-place finish in the MVP voting.

Since that ‘18 season, Story has flat-out been one of the best players in baseball. Often overlooked because 1) he played next to Arenado for so long, 2) Colorado doesn’t get a whole lot of primetime games and 3) he isn’t particularly flashy with the glove, Story actually ranks 11th in FanGraphs WAR among all players in that span. His 107 long balls since ‘17 put him 12th in MLB, tied with Kyle Schwarber and ahead of such celebrated players as Freddie Freeman, Aaron Judge and Christian Yelich.

That said, 2021 represented a small step back for Story at the worst possible time. He missed some time due to an elbow issue that seemed to have hampered him for a good chunk of the season. He was also embroiled in a bizarre situation at the trade deadline in which the Rockies' front office seemingly indicated an intention to deal the franchise shortstop in his walk year before reverting and holding on to him.

Whether that impacted Story directly is unclear, but his numbers definitely took a hit, as his 103 OPS+ was the lowest of his career since 2017. However, the underlying batted-ball data (exit velocity and barrel percentage) was in line with his peak seasons, so if Story comes into 2022 healthy, there isn't much reason for concern.

The defensive metrics are more mixed on Story and combine to present a pretty unclear assessment of his skills. Outs Above Average (OAA), which is a range-based metric tracked by Statcast, had him in the 99th percentile of shortstops in 2019 (elite) but in the fourth percentile of shortstops in 2021 (awful). FanGraphs’s UZR is high on Story's glove, placing his 2021 performance ahead of those of Gold Glove shortstops such as Brandon Crawford and Carlos Correa.

In reality, Story is probably an average defensive player at shortstop.

But that won’t matter too much in 2022, considering that Red Sox manager Alex Cora confirmed Sunday that Story will be Boston’s every-day second baseman, with Bogaerts entrenched at short. Story last played second in 2015 for Triple-AAA Albuquerque.

The consensus around the game is that second base should suit him just fine and might even provide a boost for a player who had issues with his throwing elbow last year. There could be a few bumps along the way as Story adjusts to a different angle off the bat, but he should have little issue come Opening Day.

That Story agreed to sign with Boston despite not being able to play shortstop is notable, as is the report that Bogaerts reached out to Story to try to persuade him to join the Sox. Bogaerts has been the every-day shortstop at Fenway Park since Opening Day 2014 and has developed into one of the faces of the team in the post Mookie Betts/David Ortiz/Dustin Pedroia era.

But Bogaerts' contract has an opt-out at the end of the coming season, which many believe he’ll activate to become a free agent for the first time. He is currently guaranteed $20 million per year through the end of 2025, but if Story got $23.3 million per year, Bogaerts should get at least that, if not more.

For the Red Sox, the Story deal is a win/win. If Bogaerts does opt out and eventually leave in free agency, Cora can slide Story back to his natural position. If Bogaerts ends up staying with Boston, the Sox will have a solid second baseman capable of blasting 35 bombs a year. That’s what we call a good problem.

Does the Story deal make Bogaerts’ departure more likely? Incrementally, yes. Boston is one of MLB’s financial behemoths, and thus has the cash to sign Story this year, bring back Bogaerts next year, toss a few million to me and you, and still have enough left for groceries. The dough is there. But so far in GM Chaim Bloom’s tenure, Boston has been reluctant to fork over huge sums of coin through free agency, opting instead to shed payroll, like the Red Sox did in the Betts deal.

Bloom’s predecessor, Dave Dombrowski, who is now the top baseball decision-maker in Philadelphia, was much more active, handing out huge free-agent deals to David Price, Nathan Eovaldi and J.D. Martinez and large extensions to Bogaerts and Sale. With Rafael Devers also set to hit free agency after 2023, Boston might just let Bogaerts walk and push Story back to short.

But in the short term, Story’s addition completely revitalizes Boston’s lineup. He not only provides a much-needed punch to the middle of the order but also pushes everyone else down a spot, giving the lineup some real length. A lower half of Alex Verdugo, Bobby Dalbec, Christian Vazquez and Jackie Bradley Jr. is solid, and Dalbec has huge upside, but the lineup still has some real questions.

If Boston's top prospect, first baseman Triston Casas, comes up mid-year and hits the ground running, then you’re looking at an order that could do some real damage. Schwarber came to Fenway at the deadline last season and changed the complexion of Boston’s lineup, and there’s a chance that Story could do the same this year.

And for a team that spent much of the free-agent cycle improving the fringes of its roster with veteran arms such as Rich Hill and Michael Wacha, Story is a monumental splash just before closing time who could elevate the Red Sox in what should be a hyper-competitive AL East.

Jake Mintz is the louder half of @CespedesBBQ and a baseball writer for FOX Sports. He’s an Orioles fan living in New York City, and thus, he leads a lonely existence most Octobers. If he’s not watching baseball, he’s almost certainly riding his bike. You can follow him on Twitter @Jake_Mintz.