New Orleans Saints

Saints vs. Bucs: Five brave predictions

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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The New Orleans Saints travel to Tampa Bay this Sunday to face the Buccaneers. After a disappointing loss to Detroit, the Saints season is virtually over. But they’re technically still alive.

It’s not actually so outlandish to think that the Saints have a playoff shot. So let’s do this guys. Don’t hang our heads yet.

Who Dat Dish has some brave predictions for the matchup. Some predictions are not so brave. Others are statistically unlikely. But we’ll try to present some idea of how we think the game will turn out.

Nov 27, 2016; Tampa, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans (13) celebrates a touchdown with wide receiver Adam Humphries (11) during the first quarter of an NFL football game against the Seattle Seahawks at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

Mike Evans has a day.

Yeah, so this is a bit vague. But I said I’m starting easy.

The Saints have seen plenty of Mike Evans throughout his career. But he’s always been his own worst enemy on the field. He could never catch the ball consistently, and that all but nullified his elite physical tools.

Well, now he’s fixed the catching problem. And he’s tearing the league apart. From what I understand—which isn’t actually much—he’s the backbone, front bone, arms and legs of this Buccaneers offense.

He’ll no doubt have Delvin Breaux shadowing him all game long. And last season I would have thought that enough to contain the breakout receiver. But it’s hard to contain a guy like Mike Evans. Breaux is still playing very well, and I expect he’ll cover Evans better than most. But the aura I saw around Breaux has faltered in recent weeks. I see he’s just a man, and he’ll have his hands full on Sunday.

So Mike Evans, a day. The first of my bold predictions.

Dec 4, 2016; San Diego, CA, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Doug Martin (22) runs the ball while defended by San Diego Chargers cornerback Trevor Williams (42) during the second half at Qualcomm Stadium. Tampa Bay won 28-21. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

The Buccaneers’ ground game comes to life.

Doug Martin has struggled mightily this season. He’s averaging only 3 yards per carry, and has only found the end-zone twice.

But he missed an early portion of the season. And in his few active games he’s played some dominant run defenses. Including the Cardinals, the Seahawks, and the Chiefs. While the Saints have been much improved against the run, last week we saw Detroit’s second and third-string backs bring their struggling run game to life against N.O. And I’m concerned the same might happen again.

Sheldon Rankins’s return really paid dividens for this defensive line. They’re playing pretty well against the run. Cam Jordan is obviously a monster. The reason for concern is Craig Robertson. Robertson exited last weeks game and has since missed practice time with a shoulder injury. The severity of the injury is unclear, but if Robertson misses the game the Saints don’t have any great players behind him.

Michael Mauti is out. James Laurinaitis is out. Nate Stupar will get the starting nod, I hope. If it’s Stephone Anthony, then the Saints are really in trouble.

Dec 4, 2016; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Saints outside linebacker Dannell Ellerbe (59) hits Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) as he throws during the second quarter of a game at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

The Saints bring pressure often, and have success.

The Saints are about to face one of the better QBs in the league in Jameis Winston. But for all he does well, Winston is an aggressive player. He makes risky decisions, especially under pressure. So expect the Saints to bring plenty of it, trying to bait the young QB into a turnover.

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When playing a talented receiver like Mike Evans, it can be hard to bring complicated blitz packages. You don’t want to leave Evans on an island, no matter how good Breaux is. So there will likely be safety help over top of Evans on most blitzing scenarios.

But that fact is a double-edged sword. If the Saints can get after Winston, you can be sure he’ll look Evans’s way. It’s the nature of his aggressiveness. He’d rather take the dagger shot than dump it down for a minimal gain. And if the Saints can disguise a safety in coverage, they might be able to snag one from Winston.

Nov 13, 2016; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Saints strong safety Kenny Vaccaro (32) returns an interception as Denver Broncos offensive guard Max Garcia (76) and wide receiver Demaryius Thomas (88) pursue during the second half of a game at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. The Broncos defeated the Saints 25-23. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

The Saints intercept Winston twice.

You heard it here first, folks. Two interceptions for the black and gold this Sunday.

Predictions like this are a bit silly, it’s true. There’s no way of accurately predicting turnovers, despite what statistics say. But we’re being brave here, so why not.

Like I said, I expect the Saints to bring plenty of pressure on Winston. It’s their M.O. generally: disguised coverages and blitz packages, designed to force turnovers. Well, generally the Saints have come up short in the INT department. They have a few missed opportunities last week, and I expect they’ll have another shot on Sunday.

I’m going to go way out on a limb here and say, Jairus Byrd is going to get a pick. Again, you heard it here first. The high-profile safety has played very well of late, leaving the Saints in a difficult position with regards his contract. And an INT would go a long way in securing a future here in New Orleans.

Beyond Byrd, I’m going to say… Nate Stupar. INT. Why not? We’re making brave predictions here, and Stupar flashes some athleticism at times. You could even say that he’s “sneaky athletic”.

Dec 4, 2016; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees (9) during introductions before a game against the Detroit Lions at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

Drew Brees tears up the Buccaneers defense.

This is, without a doubt, the bravest of my predictions. It’s unfounded, to be honest. After an absolute dud performance against the Lions, I predict Brees comes out firing on all cylinders to torch this talented Buccs defense.

By all accounts, the Buccaneers defense is more dangerous than the Lions. But the Lions won the game, very simply, by winning at the line. They were absurdly disruptive against the pass and the run. The Saints couldn’t fully get into their sets, and it crippled them.

I’m reluctant to admit that some of that is on the playcaller’s shoulders. I say I’m reluctant because I’m not a member of the Payton-hate club. I think he’s still the great offensive mind that he’s always been. He just had a bad game, he was caught with a bad gameplan. The Saints needed some short and intermediate throws to open up the offense, and they just weren’t prepared for it.

Anyway, I’d be surprised to see Payton caught off-guard two weeks in a row. And assuming Gerald McCoy misses the game with his foot injury, this Buccs defensive line is not so scary. They play good coverage, so the Saints WRs will have to find space. But they’re more than capable of that.

Brave Predictions Final Score: Saints 30, Buccaneers 27

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