Arizona Cardinals

NFL Week 4: Survivor Pool Stone Cold Locks

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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Which teams should you consider picking in your NFL Week 4 Survivor Pool? Check out these stone cold locks…

Okay, so, NFL Week 3 was not kind to me. I went 2-1 picking the Cardinals over the Bills, the Dolphins over the Browns, and the Cowboys over the Bears. I had the Cardinals in two of my three survivor pools, so I’m hoping you feel some sort of empathy and not disdain. Miami needed overtime to conquer Cleveland, which didn’t help my heart palps. Dallas ran roughshod over Chicago. But now it’s onward to NFL Week 4.

Let’s start with the tempting games to avoid. Somehow, Houston is favored by 5.5 points at home, but J.J. Watt won’t play and the Titans aren’t as bad as people think. Call it once bit, twice shy, but I’m not going near the Bills at New England and the Rams at Arizona.

Despite all my writing proving otherwise, I went against Buffalo in Week 3 and they burned me. Even if the Pats stuck it to the Texans, something tells me the Bills surprise us once again. The Cardinals are not who we thought they were. It would be such a Rams move to win in Glendale.

If you’ve still got a heartbeat in your survivor pool, check out my picks to keep on kickin’.

Sep 18, 2016; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton (14) passes the ball against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the second quarter at Heinz Field. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Cincinnati over Miami

The Bengals lost their home opener, 29-17, even though they held Denver’s running game in check while rushing for more than 140 yards. The legend of Trevor Siemian grew larger as the 2015 seventh-round draft pick out of Northwestern tossed for more than 300 yards and four touchdowns.

Cincy’s defense hasn’t been as staunch as we’re used to due to the losses of Leon Hall and Reggie Nelson in free agency and Vontaze Burfict to suspension. That unit gets Burfict back in this Thursday night contest against the ‘Fins, which should instill confidence in this pick.

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Meanwhile, the Bengals offense definitely sorely misses Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu. A.J. Green can only do so much. Brandon LaFell and Tyler Boyd have been serviceable, but if the Bengals want to battle for the division crown, those two will need to exceed expectations. Tyler Eifert can’t stay on the field and Andy Dalton looks mediocre without weapons.

That unit is 29th in passing touchdowns thrown and 27th in rushing yards. Those ranks will have to change. But I think it can be done against an inconsistent Dolphins defense.

Miami’s a tough nut to crack, as is the majority of the field in the NFL. They almost beat the Seahawks in Seattle, almost came back against the Pats in New England, then needed an extra frame to knock off the Browns led by rookie Cody Kessler. If you read my entry last week, the Dolphins-Browns game was the one that gave me most pause. After that game, faith in the team has waned.

With Arian Foster doubtful, Mike Pouncey and Jordan Cameron out, plus Dion Sims, DeVante Parker, and Jarvis Landry all nursing injuries, the offense will be limping into The Jungle. Turnovers have really plagued this squad the past two weeks and that will be their death knell in this clash as Ryan Tannehill will see a lot of pressure.

The Bengals are favored by seven.

Sep 18, 2016; Landover, MD, USA; Washington Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins (8) on the field before the game between the Washington Redskins and the Dallas Cowboys at FedEx Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

Washington over Cleveland

You have to be impressed with the Washington Redskins. After losing two-straight at home, one by blowout and one by late red zone mistake, the ‘Skins went into East Rutherford and fought back from a 21-9 deficit and numerous injuries to steal a win from the New York Giants.

An already vulnerable secondary lost both Bashaud Breeland and DeAngelo Hall in that game, but the G-Men failed to exploit that weakness as Quinton Dunbar and Su’a Cravens came up with huge interceptions.

Can Cleveland do what New York couldn’t in NFL Week 4? The answer might lie with Terrelle Pryor. The former Ohio State Buckeye had a breakout game against the Dolphins in Week 3, racking up 144 receiving yards on eight catches, 21 yards on four carries, and 35 passing yards.

Rookie Corey Coleman is out with a broken hand and Josh Gordon won’t suit up until Week 5, when his suspension ends. Duke Johnson is questionable, so the workload will fall on Isaiah Crowell. If the Browns have any shot on the road, Kessler, Pryor, and Crowell will need career games.

Washington’s offense moved the ball against New York, but couldn’t convert drives into touchdowns. That’s been the early signature of a Giants defense that has only allowed four touchdowns over three weeks, yet is ranked 11th in fewest points allowed. Field goals, field goals, field goals.

Jamison Crowder and DeSean Jackson should carve up the Browns secondary, who might be without Joe Haden.

Washington is favored by 7.5 points at home.

Sep 18, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Trevor Siemian (13) drops back to pass in the first quarter against the Indianapolis Colts at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Denver over Tampa Bay

I’ve never had more of a certainty than this game. And yet, Vegas has Denver only favored by three points. Vegas is very rarely wrong, so that point spread might spook a lot of you off from picking the Broncos. That line screams “TRAP GAME!”

Still, I’m undeterred. Denver’s defense is still a top-five unit against the pass even after losing a few key players. They’ll be up against a Bucs passing attack that throws more attempts and touchdowns than any other team in the league. Now, you could argue those numbers are inflated because they’ve played from behind against both the Cardinals and the Rams in addition to going up against a porous Falcons secondary and you wouldn’t be wrong.

As team captain Vincent Jackson’s prowess fades, Adam Humphries has emerged as the second most productive wideout for Tampa. Could the Broncos focus on shutting down Humphries with press coverage and forget about Jackson over the top? Possibly. For maybe a quarter. Then Denver adjusts and Jameis Winston, who has kept his interceptions way down (30th in NFL), could end up forcing some throws.

If Tampa wants to give the Broncos a run for their money, the Bucs will need to strike a balance with the run. Without Doug Martin, that means feeding the ball to Charles Sims, who’s been more of a pass-catcher than workhorse.

The outcome will all come down to Tampa’s defense, which has allowed the most points in the NFL and is near the bottom of the league against the pass. Denver’s offense has scored the fourth most points league-wide as Siemian has gelled with Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. Virgil Green is hurt, but that shouldn’t hinder this unit. Tampa might hang around for a half, but will ultimately get rolled by the Broncos’ relentless attack.

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