National Football League

Look Between the Lines: Handicapping the NFL's Week 7 slate

Published Oct. 15, 2014 10:52 a.m. ET

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James Hernandez has more than 15 years in the sports handicapping industry and will contribute weekly for FOXSports.com as our betting expert. Have comments or questions? Make sure to email him at jameshernandez1981@gmail.com or follow him on Twitter @jhern81.

During the NFL season, I will attempt to guide you to the winner's circle more often than not. I consider a combination of statistical trends, my own personal player ranking system, and meticulous attention to various wagering techniques that allow me to analyze and formulate a plan of attack.

Each week I will post my five favorite plays in order of preference, best on top and so on. All right, let's get into it:

Note: Over the last four weeks the LBTL articles are 16-4 ATS.

New England Patriots (-9) over New York Jets

Tom Brady will attempt to win his seventh straight regular-season home game versus the Jets, while his Pats try to replace two key contributors on a short week.

Running back Stevan Ridley and linebacker Jerod Mayo left the Buffalo game and both are feared out for the remainder of the year. Luckily for the Pats, Brady once again appears to be seeking out Gronk, who has 13 catches on 20 targets for 194 yards and a touchdown over his last two games. In his last three games versus New York, Gronkowski has had a field day catching 22 passes for 305 yards and three touchdowns.

Brady is 18-6 versus the Jets so you can expect more of the same as he and Belichick continue their mastery over Rex and Gang Green. Look for the Pats cruise to a double-digit victory and cover in Foxborough as they maintain their hold on first place in the AFC East.

Cincinnati Bengals/Indianapolis Colts over 49

The Indianapolis Colts currently have the top-ranked offense in the NFL and the Cincinnati Bengals have as explosive an offense as any team in the game. With or without A.J. Green (questionable for Sunday's game), the Bengals offense should have no problem approaching their season average of 26.8 points per game.

Indy comes into the contest averaging 31.5 points while Luck and his offensive counterparts are as hot as any team in the NFL. Offensively, the Colts have scored 138 points (34.5 ppg) over their last four contests, all wins. These are the kind of games the league dreams of: perfect conditions, two offensively gifted teams, and two talented young signal callers who are right at home with an old-fashioned shootout. Don't be surprised if a track meet breaks out under the dome as both teams easily push the game total into the 50s.

San Diego Chargers (-4) over Kansas City Chiefs

Philip Rivers has always played well against the Chiefs (13-4 career record) and that dominance has translated to overall team success for the Chargers. Over the last five seasons the Bolts have absolutely owned this matchup, going 8-2 versus Kansas City while outscoring them 301-177 over that time. San Diego will attempt to hold onto sole possession of first place in the AFC West and looks to remain unbeaten at home, where the Bolts are outscoring opponents 94-34 through three games.

The Chargers are the toughest defense to score against in the conference, allowing only 15.2 points per game and are even stingier in Diego, allowing only 11.3 points per game. This line is lower than it should be due to the Chargers' struggles last week at Oakland, but that was due in large part to the secondary being ravaged by injury.

Those players appear to be ready to go this week, so lay the points as Rivers continues his push for 2014 NFL MVP and his team looks for their best start to a season since 2002.

Arizona Cardinals/Oakland Raiders over 43

Last season inter-conference totals going over were cashed at nearly a 60 percent clip. Statistical trends can be a useful guide to utilize when tracking not only your own bets, but also the overall happenings of the league you are wagering on.

This matchup doesn't jump out as an appealing over initially, but after the firing of Dennis Allen the Raiders are beginning to show some life offensively. Rookie signal-caller Derek Carr showed some big-time moxie last weekend, throwing four touchdown passes and nearly pulling off a huge upset at home over the heavily favored Chargers.

Despite the early-season offensive struggles for Arizona, much of it was directly related to Carson Palmer's injured throwing shoulder and not the play-calling of offensive guru Bruce Arians. Expect both teams to get on track offensively this weekend as they combine to push this total past a surprisingly low number.

Detroit Lions (-2.5) over New Orleans Saints

If defense truly does win championships, it might be time to start treating the Detroit Lions like legitimate title contenders. Through six games the Lions have only allowed 82 points (13.7 points per game), and if they can keep up this pace they will be the first defense since the 2010 Ravens to not allow a 100-yard rusher during the entire regular season. Jim Caldwell was the architect of some elite defenses for Tony Dungy during their time in Indy and it appears as if he finally has the defensive side of the ball living up to the hype in the motor city.

Without Jimmy Graham (doubtful) in the lineup Drew Brees may struggle to keep the Detroit run defense honest, which will most likely lead to eight men in the box all afternoon long. Caldwell will take away the running game and force the Saints offense to be one-dimensional.

Lay a reasonable number here and watch the Lions defense shut down another one of the NFL's most prolific offenses on their way to another impressive home win and cover.