National Football League

Cold Water: The Saints win, but what does it mean?

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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Yes, it feels good. The Saints needed to win big against the Rams, and they did just that. But there’s a long road ahead to a respectable record. And an even longer road to the playoffs.

Yes, there’s reason to celebrate. Coming into the matchup, it felt like one of those games the Saints would drop in dramatically disappointing fashion. Fighting for their playoff lives, fighting to avoid that 7-9 curse, against a lesser team with a rookie quarterback in his second start. The Saints I know lose those games far too often.

It may have been due to the added motivation of facing Gregg Williams. It may have simply been a good matchup for the black and gold. Or maybe it was due to tangible growth from this young team. Whatever the reason, the Saints won this game about as handily as they could have. They’re now 5-6, and have a shot at reaching 10 wins and the playoffs for the first time since 2013.

But while there’s reason to celebrate, I think some cold water is still in order. Getting to 10 wins won’t be easy. And even then, it doesn’t guarantee the playoffs.

The Saints may very well control their destiny at some point in this last stretch of the season. But as of now, they do not. Atlanta needs to lose a game, or, alternatively, one of the Redskins or the Giants need to lose a few.

Who Dat Dish has the lowdown on what exactly needs to happen.

Nov 27, 2016; Cleveland, OH, USA; New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning (10) congratulates wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. (13) on his touchdown reception during the fourth quarter against the Cleveland Browns at FirstEnergy Stadium. The Giants won 27-13. Mandatory Credit: Scott R. Galvin-USA TODAY Sports

The Saints will compete with the Giants, the Redskins, the Eagles and the Vikings for a wildcard spot, if they go 10-6.

The Giants have a tough schedule. They play five teams with winning or .500 records, including the Cowboys, the Lions, and the Redskins. But they need to lose all but one of those games if the Saints want a chance at taking their wildcard spot. If they win two, they’re at 10 wins, and hold the tiebreaker over New Orleans.

The Redskins have an easier schedule. The only team they play with a winning record is the Giants. And that game is in Week 17, so if the Giants have clinched their playoff spot by then, it may be an easy win for Washington. Then again, they are a division rival. Who knows how the Giants would play it. Fortunately, after losing to the Cowboys this week, the Redskins only need one loss to fall behind a 10-6 Saints team.

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Unfortunately, there are a two NFC teams who, if they win out, would outpace the Saints for that second wildcard spot. Both the Vikings and the Eagles, who play the Packers tonight on MNF, have a shot at 11 wins.

The Vikings would need to open up with a win against the Cowboys next week. But besides that, they’ve got an easy road against four losing teams. If they beat the Cowboys they might very well be uncatchable for the black and gold.

And as for the Eagles, they’re road is probably the most difficult out of any of these teams. They’d need to beat the Cowboys, the Giants, the Redskins, the Ravens, and the Bengals, and that’s assuming they win tonight. But it’s possible. And if they win out, there’s nothing the Saints can do in the wildcard race.

What I mean to say is, the wildcard spot will be hard to claim.

Nov 27, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan (2) jogs off of the field after their game against the Arizona Cardinals at the Georgia Dome. The Falcons won 38-19. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

The Saints’ best shot at the playoffs is through Atlanta and the NFC South.

The Saints are currently behind Tampa Bay in the division. But a 10-6 record assumes to wins over the Buccaneers, so if we’re playing the hypothetical game the Buccs aren’t a threat. It’s the Falcons.

It’s the Falcons. They’d need to lose at least one game before their Week 17 meeting with the Saints. If they do, any game on their schedule, the Saints control their own destiny. That’s all they need, one loss.

The problem is the Falcons’ schedule. They play bad teams. The Chiefs next week, then the Rams, the 49ers, the Panthers, and finally the Saints. Maybe they can lose against KC. Maybe Carolina can pull off the upset. But it’s hard to imagine the Rams or the Niners unseating the offensive powerhouse that is Atlanta.

If the Falcons win out, and the Giants win two out of five, and any of the Redskins, Vikings, or Eagles win out, the Saints are out of the playoffs. No matter what they do with their remaining five games.

All that said, if the Saints finish 10-6 and miss the playoffs, I’d be okay. After consecutive 7-9 seasons, I just want to finish with a winning record. If 10-6 doesn’t get us into the playoffs, then so be it. I’m alright even with 9-7. Not thrilled, but alright.

Nov 17, 2016; Charlotte, NC, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Luke McCown (7) reacts after the game against the Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium. The Panthers defeated the Saints 23-20. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports

10-6 would mean wins against Detroit, Tampa Bay, Arizona, and Atlanta.

After last night’s whooping of the Seahawks, it should be obvious to everyone that this is no easy schedule. In fact, compared with all the schedule’s we’ve looked at so far, I’d say it’s up there with the Eagles in terms of difficulty.

But with Desmond Trufant out for the year, I think every one of these games is very winnable for New Orleans. The Saints are easily the best 5-win team in the league and are playing their best football these last few weeks. It can happen.

Will it happen? A six-game winning streak to end a season is a lot to ask for. And any fan looking down the line at their schedule will see the possibility of winning out. All it takes is one loss, though, to virtually knock this team out of contention. Especially against Tampa Bay. The Saints really need to sweep the Bucs.

8-8, I’ll console myself with the thought that this is a young team trending up.

7-9, it’ll be a long offseason. There’s no consolation for that.

And let’s not ignore the fact that 5-11 is entirely possible.

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