Men's College Hoops Spotlight: Predicting Winners of Power-Conference Tournaments

As the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament approaches, four teams seem to have separated themselves from the rest of college basketball: Duke, Michigan, Arizona and Florida. 

All of them are projected to earn No. 1 seeds in FOX Sports' Mike DeCourcy's latest projections. Their collective dominance has been so thorough and so complete that analysts around the sport are beginning to wonder if we’ll see the four top seeds reach the Final Four again, just as we did last season.  

Between now and then, however, college basketball’s leading quartet will navigate four separate conference tournaments this week. Predictably, they’re overwhelming favorites to win their respective leagues, even with injuries to multiple Duke starters.

Here are my picks for conference tournament winners from the sport’s top five leagues: 

Big East

Winner: St. John’s 

Zuby Ejiofor #24 of St. John's drives to the basket against Eric Reibe #12 of UConn. (Photo by Evan Bernstein/Getty Images)

There were plenty of reasons to be concerned with how the Red Storm might — or might not — bounce back from a shocking 72-40 road loss at No. 6 UConn on Feb. 25, which momentarily cast some doubt over who would win the Big East regular season title. But head coach Rick Pitino deserves immense credit for the way his team responded down the stretch, winning three consecutive games over Villanova, Georgetown and Seton Hall to win the league outright for a second consecutive year. A moment that could have legitimately derailed the Red Storm’s upward trajectory now seems like nothing more than a blip amid this stretch of 16 wins in 17 games entering the conference tournament. 

The Big East Tournament is played at Madison Square Garden, which has become something of a fortress during Pitino’s tenure thanks to ever-increasing fan interest. The potential semifinal matchup with fourth-seeded Seton Hall is a rematch of a game St. John’s won just last week. Even the possibility of a high-profile rubber match with second-seeded UConn in the championship game shouldn’t be nearly as intimidating given the home-court advantage. When the Red Storm and Huskies played at the Garden in early February, the crowd resembled a 90-10 split in favor of St. John’s. That’s why Pitino’s team should expect to cut down the nets again this weekend. 

Big Ten 

Winner: Michigan 

Michigan head coach Dusty May looks on during warmups before a game against Michigan State. (Photo by Rey Del Rio/Getty Images)

At this point, who is picking against the Wolverines in any capacity, let alone the conference tournament for a league they just won by four full games? The combination of a relatively soft non-conference schedule and an easy opening salvo in Big Ten play meant that Michigan was largely untested through mid-February, when head coach Dusty May and Co. embarked on a brutal finishing kick. By then, the analytics and predictive metrics for May’s team were already extraordinary, but a string of wins over then-No. 7 Purdue (away), then No. 10 Illinois (away), Iowa (away) and then-No. 8 Michigan State (home) cemented just how special these Wolverines really are. 

An interesting twist to this year’s Big Ten Tournament bracket includes a potential semifinal matchup with fifth-seeded Wisconsin, the only conference foe to beat Michigan this year. That would require the Badgers to win their opening game and then upset fourth-seeded Illinois in the quarterfinals. There’s also the possibility of a championship matchup with third-seeded Michigan State, the Wolverines’ archrival, which would present an opportunity for May to earn a third consecutive victory over the Spartans — something that hasn’t happened since the 2017-18 campaign. If Michigan can cut down the nets in Chicago this weekend, the selection committee will have to think long and hard about giving May’s team the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament. 

Big 12

Winner: Arizona

Koa Peat #10 of the Arizona Wildcats celebrates after scoring against Arizona State. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

Whichever team emerges from this slobber knocker of a tournament should feel thoroughly accomplished, regardless of what happens in the NCAA Tournament. The Big 12 field includes five teams ranked among the top 16 in the latest AP Poll in No. 2 Arizona, No. 5 Houston, No. 7 Iowa State, No. 14 Kansas and No. 16 Texas Tech, plus two more that checked in at Nos. 27 and 28, respectively, in TCU and BYU. That’s as loaded of a conference tournament field as you’ll find in college basketball, especially considering how many future lottery picks will be involved: from AJ Dybantsa (BYU) and Darryn Peterson (Kansas), to Kingston Flemings (Houston), Brayden Burries (Arizona), Koa Peat (Arizona) and, potentially, Christian Anderson Jr. (Texas Tech). NBA scouts will be drooling. 

Such incredible depth across the Big 12 resulted in a bit of cannibalism during the latter stages of the regular season. Houston dropped three straight games in late February before rebounding with three consecutive wins. Iowa State will enter the conference tournament having lost three of its last five. Kansas hasn’t won back-to-back games in more than a month. Texas Tech seemed no worse for wear following the torn ACL suffered by consensus second-team All-American JT Toppin before losing to TCU and BYU last week. 

The only team still relatively unscathed is Arizona, which lost back-to-back games against then-No. 9 Kansas (away) and then-No. 16 Texas Tech (home) in mid-February before reeling off six straight wins to claim the tournament’s top seed. There’s no reason to think the Wildcats will stumble this week. 

ACC

Winner: Virginia

Virginia head coach Ryan Odom talks with his players during a game against Georgia Tech. (Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Injuries to key players will be among the prevailing storylines this week, dampening what could have been a much more exciting ACC Tournament. North Carolina announced that star freshman Caleb Wilson (19.8 points, 9.4 rebounds per game) is going to miss the remainder of the season after breaking his right thumb while dunking during practice. Wilson, who is now expected to declare for the NBA Draft, had already missed the prior six games due to an injury on his opposite hand. Without him, the Tar Heels’ ceiling is significantly lower for both the conference tournament and the NCAA Tournament.

Duke remains the odd-son favorite to cut down the nets this week, but the Blue Devils are not without a significant injury of their own. Head coach Jon Scheyer announced that starting point guard Caleb Foster (8.5 points, 3.6 assists) suffered a broken foot against North Carolina over the weekend and underwent surgery Sunday morning. Foster is now sidelined indefinitely without a clear timetable for his return. The Blue Devils are also missing starting center Patrick Ngongba II (10.7 points, 6 rebounds) due to a foot injury, with Scheyer deciding to rest him ahead of the NCAA Tournament. 

With two of the ACC’s top four seeds hamstrung by injuries, there’s an opportunity for second-seeded Virginia to make a run toward the tournament title. The Cavaliers’ only two losses since Dec. 31 came against North Carolina and Duke when all of the aforementioned players were healthy. 

SEC

Winner: Florida 

Florida head coach Todd Golden reacts during the second half against Kentucky. (Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images)

Is there any team in the country hotter than Florida right now? Following a 76-67 loss to unranked Auburn on Jan. 24, the Gators sunk to 14-6 overall and 5-2 in the SEC — a far cry from last year’s national championship-winning squad that only suffered four defeats all season. Since then, head coach Todd Golden and his team have strung together 11 consecutive wins in spectacular fashion. They’ve scored at least 84 points 10 times during that span, including three games with 100 points or more. All but one of those wins came by double-digit margins. From Jan. 28 through the present, Florida ranks fifth nationally in offensive efficiency and third nationally in defensive efficiency, unquestionably a national title contender once again.

The SEC Tournament bracket sets up for a potential semifinal matchup with fourth-seeded Vanderbilt, a team that only lost to Florida by four during the lone regular season tilt in mid-January. The Commodores, who rank 15th nationally in offensive efficiency, have enough firepower to keep pace with the Gators but may not be able to stop them on the other end. From there, Golden and Co. might see either second-seeded Alabama or third-seeded Arkansas in the title game. Those teams both lost to Florida during the regular season by a stunning combined margin of 57 points. That’s why it’s best to back the Gators this week.